Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: It has changed - all the high res models continue to highlight areas north. Maybe 1-3 statewide is the best call at this point. I’ll look forward to your adjustments tonight at 5:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 NAM def tickled north too. You might still be fine Kevin, but there's no doubt it's on the edge there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Nice look on the NAM for thr Berks/C MA over into E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM def tickled north too. You might still be fine Kevin, but there's no doubt it's on the edge there now. You guys all swear by Harvey. Gotta stick with him despite some waffling mesos. We’ll see what the 12z suite does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nice look on the NAM for thr Berks/C MA over into E MA. The NAM gives most of CT almost nothing, yet RI and parts of SE Mass do pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You guys all swear by Harvey. Gotta stick with him despite some waffling mesos. We’ll see what the 12z suite does He hasn't updated since last night. May the odds be ever in your favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You guys all swear by Harvey. Gotta stick with him despite some waffling mesos. We’ll see what the 12z suite does You think Harvey gives a shit about CT? That's not his forecast area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The NAM gives most of CT almost nothing, yet RI and parts of SE Mass do pretty well Let's see if Reggie continues the northward trend. It was a great look for southern areas at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You think Harvey gives a shit about CT? That's not his forecast area. Actually I do. He’s a professional. If he didn’t , he would just leave RI and CT out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Actually I do. He’s a professional. If he didn’t , he would just leave RI and CT out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 If this thing keeps pushing north, maybe that second wave on Friday ends up far enough north to give the southern areas some snow...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Actually I do. He’s a professional. If he didn’t , he would just leave RI and CT out Harvey never said that there wasn't any room for slight adjustments. He was calling things as they looked like last night. Today there have been shifts north despite how small they were which in the end make the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: If this thing keeps pushing north, maybe that second wave on Friday ends up far enough north to give the southern areas some snow...lol Rule 9 of the weenie handbook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Harvey will not lose any sleep about busting in CT but a Boston bust will have high impact. People in CT watch their locals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 CT always looked a little precarious for larger amounts with that vortmax moving through MA/S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: CT always looked a little precarious for larger amounts with that vortmax moving through MA/S NH. I remember a certain someone telling me to take them up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 RGEM is still pretty solid for N CT. Looks pretty heavy for E MA. We'll have to see what the qpf queen maps say when they come out. Most guidance actually has a pretty nice 3-5 hour period. It won't be shocking to see some 5 and 6 spots where the lucky banding winners are. There's gonna be some fake snow ratios in those bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: I remember a certain someone telling me to take them up. I still think there's a decent shot of 2-3 N and ECT , but I could see some C-1 SWCT. C-1 entire state would be pretty conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Reggie still looks good for the southern CT peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Reggie still looks good for the southern CT peeps From my experiences this winter, I wouldn't place much stock in the Reggie, Its done poorly overall, This past storm up here was a prime example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: I still think there's a decent shot of 2-3 N and ECT , but I could see some C-1 SWCT. C-1 entire state would be pretty conservative. well on my original map I didn't have C-1'' for the entire state...I had 1-3'' for NW and NE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 A lot of the mesos actually sneak far NE CT in N windham county into the goods. That poster NECT from there could do well. Wiz, I think C-1 for like Hartford county is still prob too conservative so you prob don't need to kick yourself for upping your original map. Esp northern HFD county. Could easily be some 2-3" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Reggie is 3-5 pike region down into north CT including Kevin and up to NH border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: well on my original map I didn't have C-1'' for the entire state...I had 1-3'' for NW and NE CT. My bad, that's certainly within the realm of outcomes. I could see how the gradient would be more Northeast to Southwest vs highlighting the two corners of the state but I could see that how that extra orographic enhancement in the hills could produce a bit more precipitation as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: A lot of the mesos actually sneak far NE CT in N windham county into the goods. That poster NECT from there could do well. Wiz, I think C-1 for like Hartford county is still prob too conservative so you prob don't need to kick yourself for upping your original map. Esp northern HFD county. Could easily be some 2-3" amounts. It certainly is pretty close here...Going 1-3'' was probably the best bet from the start anyways. It does look like some of that better lift will work into northern HFD Cty. I actually kind of wonder if there will be a really fine meso-band that sort of positions somewhere and drops like 5-8'' of snow...perhaps into MA. There seems to be some hints of this. Could have a nice axis where lift/snow growth are maximized and ratios approach 20:1 or slightly higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, CTValleySnowMan said: My bad, that's certainly within the realm of outcomes. I could see how the gradient would be more Northeast to Southwest vs highlighting the two corners of the state but I could see that how that extra orographic enhancement in the hills could produce a bit more precipitation as well. All good. I did factor in orographic component here. I did put a quick a bit of stock into the 700 fronto configuration on the NAM as well. I thought given it's resolution it might handle the lift better given I don't think we're really looking at widespread large-scale lift here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 I found this interesting on the 3K NAM, omehga in NMass Omega better in in NECT, more precip NMass better snowgrowth NECT so 2 to 4 for many IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Reggie is 3-5 pike region down into north CT including Kevin and up to NH border. Assuming 10 to 1 too...someone's gonna jspin their way to 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 The Reggie queen map would suggest some low end warning amounts in spots given the soundings. I wouldn't be confident enough to forecast that much for any specific point, but someone is gonna see it I think. Much better for most of the CT peeps than the NAM/RAP/RPM/HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I found this interesting on the 3K NAM, omehga in NMass Omega better in in NECT, more precip NMass better snowgrowth NECT so 2 to 4 for many IMHO Lift more solidly in the DGZ for NE MA, but CT is a warmer (near -10C) column for lift. Not bad, but enough to be a difference with that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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