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Midweek event, Yah or Nah? February 27-28th Clipper


USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  On 2/27/2019 at 7:39 PM, OceanStWx said:

That was already modeled to be fine, this is more to calm to worries of those that can still see the sun despite snow  in the forecast.

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The HREFs of the SPC, Scott N's favorite HIRES model, shows a 24-hour max of around 8-10" with a 12-15" max about 30 miles east of CHH.  I was wondering, could we get intense banding to develop off the ocean moving westward from the east?  We have low-level easterly flow develop later tonight?

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  On 2/27/2019 at 7:44 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The HREFs of the SPC, Scott N's favorite HIRES model, shows a 24-hour max of around 8-10" with a 12-15" max about 30 miles east of CHH.  I was wondering, could we get intense banding to develop off the ocean moving westward from the east?  We have low-level easterly flow develop later tonight?

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I wouldn't get too psyched over the max product. The NSSL and ARW members go a little nuts with the OES. 

But the PMM (probability matched mean) snowfall is probably a good sense of your personal upper bound. 6" with 2-4" from synoptic plus ocean enhancement is a fair high end goal post.

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  On 2/27/2019 at 7:52 PM, OceanStWx said:

I wouldn't get too psyched over the max product. The NSSL and ARW members go a little nuts with the OES. 

But the PMM (probability matched mean) snowfall is probably a good sense of your personal upper bound. 6" with 2-4" from synoptic plus ocean enhancement is a fair high end goal post.

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Excellent, I love the weather, allows learning something new every day.

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  On 2/27/2019 at 8:16 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

18z Nammy really likes eastern MA areas

qpf_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.e806e32e993663558eefc84164f9daaa.png

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SE MA has been in the sweet spot for a long time now. Should get some OES enhancement too which will help...esp for those areas somewhat close to the coast. 

The question for elsewhere is where that best ribbon of fronto occurs. Been pretty consistently between the pike and the N MA border but some guidance is a little south and some is skewed a little north of that. 

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  On 2/27/2019 at 8:21 PM, ORH_wxman said:

SE MA has been in the sweet spot for a long time now. Should get some OES enhancement too which will help...esp for those areas somewhat close to the coast. 

The question for elsewhere is where that best ribbon of fronto occurs. Been pretty consistently between the pike and the N MA border but some guidance is a little south and some is skewed a little north of that. 

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The OES enhanced stuff could be uber fluff.

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  On 2/27/2019 at 7:44 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The HREFs of the SPC, Scott N's favorite HIRES model, shows a 24-hour max of around 8-10" with a 12-15" max about 30 miles east of CHH.  I was wondering, could we get intense banding to develop off the ocean moving westward from the east?  We have low-level easterly flow develop later tonight?

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who is performing the measurement on the whale's backside?

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