OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Reg is favoring a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: To be honest, I'm not sure what the historical numbers are for this region. I was transplanted here 5 years ago and my lowest has been 39" (2015/16). My lowest number (36 years) living in the mid atlantic region was 7.6" in 1997/98...I guess the buildup to this season + seeing everywhere else get snow + having plenty of cold air + plus a ton of precip all winter (in liquid form) when added to the futility equation ranks this one up pretty high despite the overall snow numbers not being the lowest ever. Maybe a 20+inch storm to bookend this season might help overall? sorry My lowest snowfall total since I really started to pay attention at my current place was the 2011/2012 season where I got 46". 25" of that came in October (the Octobomb which gave me 22" and an earlier 3" event). I know there have been worse years, especially where I grew up in Foxboro, MA. Boston has had some years where they didn't break 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Everyone looks on track . 3-6” SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everyone looks on track . 3-6” SNE Too bullish. Go with a min of 1-3" with potential 2-4". This thing is pretty dry at least the way it looks right now. Be careful of the wet bulb bias some models have. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: We miss out on yet another epic 1 to 4 inches. Lol. Just looking at all the guidance, they keep cutting back. I do not remember which met stated it but nw flow low humidity equals pitiful event. It was Pete B. on TV a couple of nights ago. 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Very true. I still hold grudges how she left me with my pants down at the altar in Jan 15. Worst bust of my lifetime living in Northern NJ. Worse than 3/5/01. Euro still had me getting 24"-36" 18 hours out. Short-range models were backing off but everyone didn't believe it and went with the Euro. Once I saw the heavy bands set-up over Central Southern NE/Suffolk County, NY and not move west. I knew and just went to bed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Soundings are definitely very good for a good chunk of the area. So as long as they don't change too much in the next 24 hours, we'll prob see over 10 to 1 ratios. Any deeper lift in bands will be closer to 20 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Nice look on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Looks like full saturation up to 500mb. 700mb running around -12C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 34 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: To be honest, I'm not sure what the historical numbers are for this region. I was transplanted here 5 years ago and my lowest has been 39" (2015/16). My lowest number (36 years) living in the mid atlantic region was 7.6" in 1997/98...I guess the buildup to this season + seeing everywhere else get snow + having plenty of cold air + plus a ton of precip all winter (in liquid form) when added to the futility equation ranks this one up pretty high despite the overall snow numbers not being the lowest ever. Maybe a 20+inch storm to bookend this season might help overall? sorry KBOS futility is 9 inches. My guess is yours is under 17.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 21 minutes ago, Greg said: Too bullish. Go with a min of 1-3" with potential 2-4". This thing is pretty dry at least the way it looks right now. Be careful of the wet bulb bias some models have. Wet bulb bias? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 30 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: It was Pete B. on TV a couple of nights ago. Worst bust of my lifetime living in Northern NJ. Worse than 3/5/01. Euro still had me getting 24"-36" 18 hours out. Short-range models were backing off but everyone didn't believe it and went with the Euro. Once I saw the heavy bands set-up over Central Southern NE/Suffolk County, NY and not move west. I knew and just went to bed lol I was all over that. I was getting roasted by NYC weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 When the euro is alone on Revis island inside 24-36hrs toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Fwiw necn just posted a map of widespread 2" and 3" in the berks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said: Fwiw necn just posted a map of widespread 2" and 3" in the berks. Seems like Noyes is sticking with his forecast from earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Seems there's an undeniable weakening in the overall panache of this, as well as S trend. Together those facets sort of blend the original Euro flat looks a bit ... regardless of whatever the Euro has come around to over the last 30 hours of runs... it seems those original flat scenarios were not completely without merit - if perhaps just too extreme. Anyway, I'm at 27" for the season at mi casa. Maybe adding a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was all over that. I was getting roasted by NYC weenies. I remember. I was one of those that didn't listen to you and didn't believe you BUT I wasn't doing the roasting. That was from some pumped up weenies that couldn't hold back after days and days of the Euro showing the storm of the century there. I ended up with about 8-9" which was one of the highest in the state only because I lived in extreme NE NJ. There were a lot of pissed off general public people with the local mets after that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 GGEM coming in very close to the rest of 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Soundings are definitely very good for a good chunk of the area. So as long as they don't change too much in the next 24 hours, we'll prob see over 10 to 1 ratios. Any deeper lift in bands will be closer to 20 to 1. They suck here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Euro seems to on the bullish side of QPF compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 inches for route 2 3-4 inches Pike / south Least it’s not rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 2 inches for route 2 3-4 inches Pike / south Least it’s not rain Agree. No reason to change my first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: They suck here. SW CT isn't in a good spot for this one. Hope for a tickle SW. But the rest of the state looks pretty good along with MA and RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: SW CT isn't in a good spot for this one. Hope for a tickle SW. But the rest of the state looks pretty good along with MA and RI. I wonder if perhaps there is an element I am underestimating here. If I do bust low on this that will confirm that there is something I am misinterpreting correctly within these type of set ups and I think it has to do with how I view RH/ice in the SGZ. What values are sufficient enough to where you don’t need to worry about dry air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: SW CT isn't in a good spot for this one. Hope for a tickle SW. But the rest of the state looks pretty good along with MA and RI. My forecasting this year has been spot on when using the model with the least amount of snow....at least with this one we still have 36 hours to go and a slight wiggle south would help with a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Muthufukkas showing ratios.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I wonder if perhaps there is an element I am underestimating here. If I do bust low on this that will confirm that there is something I am misinterpreting correctly within these type of set ups and I think it has to do with how I view RH/ice in the SGZ. What values are sufficient enough to where you don’t need to worry about dry air? KHFD definitely is on the fringe of good snowgrowth on some of these runs. It looks a lot better not too far north and east. But even at 10 to 1 I wouldn't be worried about HFD seeing less than 2" I don't think. Not unless we see a tick north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Muthufukkas showing ratios.... I got a 4 muthafukka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 26, 2019 Author Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I got a 4 muthafukka. Can you check for CHH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: KHFD definitely is on the fringe of good snowgrowth on some of these runs. It looks a lot better not too far north and east. But even at 10 to 1 I wouldn't be worried about HFD seeing less than 2" I don't think. Not unless we see a tick north. Gotcha, thanks! One of the considerations that went into my map yesterday was whether or not we would get into good enough lift down here to maximize snow growth and the ratios. However, like dendrite stated, the SGZ is quite deep so perhaps this won't be a worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Can you check for CHH? 4 muthufukka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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