Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.

[jaxjagman]

No sign of winter yet..LOL..Thank you,Dorian.Probably over doing it but the Euro wants to really build a Upper Level Ridge into the Valley with a short term 594dm  over head.Would be our hottest temps of the season.Not sure where the Max 103.9 would be but the Valley would be the warm spot.

[jaxjagman]

On 9/3/2019 at 12:20 PM, nrgjeff said:

Unfortunately the ECMWF looks correct. EPS and Weeklies both the Euro is a lot warmer than the GEFS and CFS. Regrettably, in contrast to the last two false alarms. the Euro torch may be right.

Previous two Euro torches, that whiffed, were also in the wake of tropical cyclones. Euro left the upper ridge behind; surface ridges/fronts verified for the cooler win. This time is similar but different for two reasons.

1. Mid-latitude support is forecast. Pac NW trough is progged next week, which supports SER or Smoky Mtn Ridge (even worse).

2. GLAAM is tanked hard negative. Frankly this sux. The only way my frown turns smile is a Midwest severe wx outbreak with that trough.

Tennessee lost and the Euro won. Wake me up about mid-October. Late Night and fall foliage.

Yeah, looks warm next work week. Euro and for the most part looks like a possibility of around 10-15 degrees AN for the Valley .Warmest temp here still looks to be Tues right now with the 594dm MLR over head.Euro this afternoon has us at 101 but DP's are only 55,so no heat advisory,still warmish

[Carvers Gap]

Hot week on tap as the Euro mean from a week ago looks like it will indeed verify.  Why do I mention that, the Euro mean from 0z and the 6z GEFS do hint at some relief late in their runs with the 500 ridge establishing over the western US at least temporarily.  While I don't think that means BN temps, it might meant that we see seasonal temps.  Right now we have a source region problem in terms of fall air.  Even last night's weeklies support that change.  Again, the GEFS is overly cold and the Euro Weeklies are overly warm at 2m IMHO.  However, the Euro means have been decent at 500.  So, if the Euro mean is maybe getting a bit more dialed in at 500...maybe that means that ridge pops again in a couple of weeks out West.  We are way past due for a pattern change.

[jaxjagman]

ational Weather Service Nashville TN
204 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...
At first glace, this 7 day forecast could definitely fit more into
the brutal dog days of July rather than the second week of
September as far as the heat is concerned. Good thing we have this
weekend in which today has given us a very nice reprieve from the
heat and humidity as the area enjoys the weather behind a nice
frontal passage. Temperatures so far this afternoon have only
reached the low to mid 80s (and that last sentence might not be
uttered again until mid to late September). A relatively cool and
dry night can be expected tonight with clear skies and light
northerly winds. Sunday will be another day with Highs in the 80s
and dry weather continuing before the heat is on.

For the work week...High pressure builds over the region for the
first half of the week. With minimal cloud coverage and not much
in the way of convection really expected, Monday and especially
Tuesday-Thursday look to be rather HOT for this time of year with
heat index values nearing/surpassing the 100 degree mark.
Seasonal High temperature normals are generally in the low 80s
so forecasting mid to possibly upper 90s seems a little brutal for
those really wishing it could be a little more like pumpkin spice
weather. So don`t close those pools just yet cause summer is
hanging on strong.

By Friday and next weekend, the ridge finally breaks down and
better chances for afternoon and evening storms can be expected.
With this expect Highs to be a few degrees cooler but still near
and above the 90 degree mark. Another front looks to approach the
region late in the weekend which will hopefully provide the
ending of the July heat in September.

 

Not much rain here lately,our lawn is starting to turn brown after looking great earlier,maybe a front into next weekend but right now it looks dry.

 

ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z SEP07
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 12Z 07-SEP  -1.5     2.8      -1             -41               3       4    
SAT 18Z 07-SEP   6.9     2.0      -2             -42               4       6    
SUN 00Z 08-SEP   3.7     1.4      -3             -33               4       7    
SUN 06Z 08-SEP  -1.8     2.2      -1              -8               4       6    
SUN 12Z 08-SEP  -3.6     4.7       0              -7               4       4    
SUN 18Z 08-SEP   9.9     4.7      -1              -5               5       5    
MON 00Z 09-SEP   6.3     5.4      -3             -12               5       7    
MON 06Z 09-SEP   1.1     5.6      -1             -11               5       6    
MON 12Z 09-SEP  -0.1     5.3       1              -6               5       5    
MON 18Z 09-SEP  14.7     5.7       0              -6               7       7    
TUE 00Z 10-SEP   9.3     7.8      -1              -7               7       9    
TUE 06Z 10-SEP   3.5     8.0       0              -6               8       8    
TUE 12Z 10-SEP   1.7     7.4       3              -4               9       6    
TUE 18Z 10-SEP  15.8     6.6       2               3              10       8    
WED 00Z 11-SEP  11.0     6.9       2              25              10       8    
WED 06Z 11-SEP   4.9     6.0       3               6              10       7    
WED 12Z 11-SEP   3.1     4.9       5               5              10       6    
WED 18Z 11-SEP  15.1     5.2       3               7              10       7    
THU 00Z 12-SEP   9.9     6.2       1              15               9       8    
THU 06Z 12-SEP   5.2     5.8       1               0               9       8    
THU 12Z 12-SEP   3.3     5.3       3               1               8       6    
THU 18Z 12-SEP  15.6     5.8       1               6               9       7    
FRI 00Z 13-SEP  10.1     6.7       0              13               8       9    
FRI 06Z 13-SEP   4.8     6.2       1               9               8       8    
FRI 12Z 13-SEP   3.1     5.3       3              18               8       6    
FRI 18Z 13-SEP  15.8     6.0       2              13               9       8    
SAT 00Z 14-SEP   8.1     5.7       2    1057      27   39.34       9       7    
SAT 06Z 14-SEP   4.3     5.5       3    1072      25   39.33       8       6    
SAT 12Z 14-SEP   2.9     4.5       4    1079      19   39.33       8       5    
SAT 18Z 14-SEP  13.8     4.3       2    1038      24   39.33       8       6    
SUN 00Z 15-SEP   7.4     4.9       1              22               7       6    
SUN 06Z 15-SEP   3.6     4.3       1              16               7       6    
SUN 12Z 15-SEP   3.2     3.6       3              21               6       4    
SUN 18Z 15-SEP  13.5     3.8       0              17               6       6    
MON 00Z 16-SEP   9.8     5.8      -2    1042      -1   39.33       6       8    
MON 06Z 16-SEP   5.1     4.6      -1    1060     -13   39.33       6       7    
MON 12Z 16-SEP   3.0     4.3       1    1083       3   39.33       6       6    
MON 18Z 16-SEP  13.4     3.9      -1    1041      10   39.33       7       8    
TUE 00Z 17-SEP  10.3     5.6      -2              23               7       9    
TUE 06Z 17-SEP   6.1     3.6       0              19               7       7    
TUE 12Z 17-SEP   0.9     2.0       3             -17               7       5    

 

 

[AMZ8990]

21 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

ational Weather Service Nashville TN
204 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...
At first glace, this 7 day forecast could definitely fit more into
the brutal dog days of July rather than the second week of
September as far as the heat is concerned. Good thing we have this
weekend in which today has given us a very nice reprieve from the
heat and humidity as the area enjoys the weather behind a nice
frontal passage. Temperatures so far this afternoon have only
reached the low to mid 80s (and that last sentence might not be
uttered again until mid to late September). A relatively cool and
dry night can be expected tonight with clear skies and light
northerly winds. Sunday will be another day with Highs in the 80s
and dry weather continuing before the heat is on.

For the work week...High pressure builds over the region for the
first half of the week. With minimal cloud coverage and not much
in the way of convection really expected, Monday and especially
Tuesday-Thursday look to be rather HOT for this time of year with
heat index values nearing/surpassing the 100 degree mark.
Seasonal High temperature normals are generally in the low 80s
so forecasting mid to possibly upper 90s seems a little brutal for
those really wishing it could be a little more like pumpkin spice
weather. So don`t close those pools just yet cause summer is
hanging on strong.

By Friday and next weekend, the ridge finally breaks down and
better chances for afternoon and evening storms can be expected.
With this expect Highs to be a few degrees cooler but still near
and above the 90 degree mark. Another front looks to approach the
region late in the weekend which will hopefully provide the
ending of the July heat in September.

 

Not much rain here lately,our lawn is starting to turn brown after looking great earlier,maybe a front into next weekend but right now it looks dry.

 

ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z SEP07
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 12Z 07-SEP  -1.5     2.8      -1             -41               3       4    
SAT 18Z 07-SEP   6.9     2.0      -2             -42               4       6    
SUN 00Z 08-SEP   3.7     1.4      -3             -33               4       7    
SUN 06Z 08-SEP  -1.8     2.2      -1              -8               4       6    
SUN 12Z 08-SEP  -3.6     4.7       0              -7               4       4    
SUN 18Z 08-SEP   9.9     4.7      -1              -5               5       5    
MON 00Z 09-SEP   6.3     5.4      -3             -12               5       7    
MON 06Z 09-SEP   1.1     5.6      -1             -11               5       6    
MON 12Z 09-SEP  -0.1     5.3       1              -6               5       5    
MON 18Z 09-SEP  14.7     5.7       0              -6               7       7    
TUE 00Z 10-SEP   9.3     7.8      -1              -7               7       9    
TUE 06Z 10-SEP   3.5     8.0       0              -6               8       8    
TUE 12Z 10-SEP   1.7     7.4       3              -4               9       6    
TUE 18Z 10-SEP  15.8     6.6       2               3              10       8    
WED 00Z 11-SEP  11.0     6.9       2              25              10       8    
WED 06Z 11-SEP   4.9     6.0       3               6              10       7    
WED 12Z 11-SEP   3.1     4.9       5               5              10       6    
WED 18Z 11-SEP  15.1     5.2       3               7              10       7    
THU 00Z 12-SEP   9.9     6.2       1              15               9       8    
THU 06Z 12-SEP   5.2     5.8       1               0               9       8    
THU 12Z 12-SEP   3.3     5.3       3               1               8       6    
THU 18Z 12-SEP  15.6     5.8       1               6               9       7    
FRI 00Z 13-SEP  10.1     6.7       0              13               8       9    
FRI 06Z 13-SEP   4.8     6.2       1               9               8       8    
FRI 12Z 13-SEP   3.1     5.3       3              18               8       6    
FRI 18Z 13-SEP  15.8     6.0       2              13               9       8    
SAT 00Z 14-SEP   8.1     5.7       2    1057      27   39.34       9       7    
SAT 06Z 14-SEP   4.3     5.5       3    1072      25   39.33       8       6    
SAT 12Z 14-SEP   2.9     4.5       4    1079      19   39.33       8       5    
SAT 18Z 14-SEP  13.8     4.3       2    1038      24   39.33       8       6    
SUN 00Z 15-SEP   7.4     4.9       1              22               7       6    
SUN 06Z 15-SEP   3.6     4.3       1              16               7       6    
SUN 12Z 15-SEP   3.2     3.6       3              21               6       4    
SUN 18Z 15-SEP  13.5     3.8       0              17               6       6    
MON 00Z 16-SEP   9.8     5.8      -2    1042      -1   39.33       6       8    
MON 06Z 16-SEP   5.1     4.6      -1    1060     -13   39.33       6       7    
MON 12Z 16-SEP   3.0     4.3       1    1083       3   39.33       6       6    
MON 18Z 16-SEP  13.4     3.9      -1    1041      10   39.33       7       8    
TUE 00Z 17-SEP  10.3     5.6      -2              23               7       9    
TUE 06Z 17-SEP   6.1     3.6       0              19               7       7    
TUE 12Z 17-SEP   0.9     2.0       3             -17               7       5    

 

 

My golf course is burnt up right now, been dealing with irrigation problems all week.  We need some rain in a bad way!!

[Carvers Gap]

After a hot 7-10 days, the ensemble means of the various global models do hint that a western ridge will establish.   However, the devil is in the details.  Some models show that ridge getting pushed well inland with an almost mid-continent ridge while others place it over the spine of the Rockies.  A lot of that depends on the BN heights region in the eastern Pacific.  Does they set-up over the GOA or the Aleutians?  Either way, looks like some more seasonal temps may(grain of salt always implied at this range) arrive later next week around the 19th give or take a day or two.  I still think this pattern, which has persisted since last December with a few breaks, is due to break.  Bastardi likes the warmth carrying into December with BN temps establishing over the mid-West/Ohio Valley for Jan and Feb.  My hunch is that the warm fall breaks in October, but that is just a hunch.

[Carvers Gap]

LOL.  I am not making this up and am sure it is just a coincidence.  JB just posted 15 minutes ago some cooler analogs for Sept/Oct/Nov....but December was warm w a cool Jan/Feb.  FTR, I posted my thoughts in the above post prior to his post.  I don't see much BN or anything like that on modeling...maybe just a return to good ol' seasonal temps by the last third of September.  Mainly, I think this pattern of cold in the northern Plains w AN temps over the SE(which has persisted since last December) is going to break soon.  I think the respite that we saw just before Labor Day and just after was the first sign that the very persistent pattern over the SE is weakening.  

[nrgjeff]

The markets weather can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent sane. 

On 9/6/2019 at 10:39 AM, Carvers Gap said:

...We are way past due for a pattern change.

Global wind remains remarkably stubborn negative (hot). Kelvin wave looks to progress out of that cool signal quickly to warm; so, I guess around 90 weekend is the only so-called break. More mid-90s next week. NWP is reloading again in the 11-15.

I was out of pocket for a while at the National Weather Association annual meeting in Huntsville. It was amazing except for one silly panel disco. LOTS of great severe wx info.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

The markets weather can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent sane. 

Global wind remains remarkably stubborn negative (hot). Kelvin wave looks to progress out of that cool signal quickly to warm; so, I guess around 90 weekend is the only so-called break. More mid-90s next week. NWP is reloading again in the 11-15.

I was out of pocket for a while at the National Weather Association annual meeting in Huntsville. It was amazing except for one silly panel disco. LOTS of great severe wx info.

We are roasting up here.  Just one degree away from our fourth record high in a row.  Unless the airport gets some wind from a thunderstorm...they have about two hours to get one more degree higher.  Looks probable.  

My hope is that we see these much above temps exit sometime later next week...that is my timeframe for some potential relief(day 9-15).  Until then, ugh.  This pattern has been a fairly resilient one to steal a phrase from the infamous Butch Jones.  Looks like we get a break during the reload w some AN heights building over the top along the Canadian border.  Pretty incredible how warm the last few falls have become...hopefully we see things at least balance out during the coming years.  September is not supposed to be a summer month.  LOL.  Have a good weekend!  And hey, looks like the Kansas vs UT game time was set for basketball!

[mempho]

On 9/7/2019 at 2:47 PM, jaxjagman said:

ational Weather Service Nashville TN
204 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...
At first glace, this 7 day forecast could definitely fit more into
the brutal dog days of July rather than the second week of
September as far as the heat is concerned. Good thing we have this
weekend in which today has given us a very nice reprieve from the
heat and humidity as the area enjoys the weather behind a nice
frontal passage. Temperatures so far this afternoon have only
reached the low to mid 80s (and that last sentence might not be
uttered again until mid to late September). A relatively cool and
dry night can be expected tonight with clear skies and light
northerly winds. Sunday will be another day with Highs in the 80s
and dry weather continuing before the heat is on.

For the work week...High pressure builds over the region for the
first half of the week. With minimal cloud coverage and not much
in the way of convection really expected, Monday and especially
Tuesday-Thursday look to be rather HOT for this time of year with
heat index values nearing/surpassing the 100 degree mark.
Seasonal High temperature normals are generally in the low 80s
so forecasting mid to possibly upper 90s seems a little brutal for
those really wishing it could be a little more like pumpkin spice
weather. So don`t close those pools just yet cause summer is
hanging on strong.

By Friday and next weekend, the ridge finally breaks down and
better chances for afternoon and evening storms can be expected.
With this expect Highs to be a few degrees cooler but still near
and above the 90 degree mark. Another front looks to approach the
region late in the weekend which will hopefully provide the
ending of the July heat in September.

 

 

Wrong!!!