Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.

[Mr Bob]

It's lovely....just a reminder that fantasy progs go into Banter unless you are supporting some type of theory/forecast....Thanks! 

[jaxjagman]

You know winter is getting close when you see Mr.Bob

[jaxjagman]

Just a heads up in case some of ya'll in this area wasn't aware,didn't know where to post it,figured this was as good as any.


Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
928 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...Hytop Radar Will Be Out Of Service Beginning Monday August 5...

The KHTX WSR-88D Radar, operated and maintained by the NWS WFO in
Huntsville, AL, will be out of service next week for an extended 
period of scheduled maintenance. The radar will be taken off line 
on Monday morning, August 5, with the outage expected to last 
approximately five days.

The maintenance performed next week will involve refurbishing the
transmitter with new cables and fuses, ideally resulting in 
smooth operation of the radar for another twenty years. During the
downtime, we encourage users to access radar data from the 
following sites adjacent to KHTX:

1. KGWX (Columbus AFB, MS)
2. KBMX (Birmingham, AL)
3. KOHX (Nashville, TN)
4. KFFC (Atlanta, GA)
5. KNQA (Memphis, TN)

[jaxjagman]

Looks warm upcoming Monday and Tuesday,especially the western Valley.Could be some strong storms right now Tuesday it seems other than the Southern portions of the Valley.WPC has a slight risk even with FFG east of  Nashville.(More rain for John right now it seems,like he hasn't seen to much lately )

CFS shows a ERW into possibly the Caribbean then maybe into the GOM with maybe a dying KW.Either way,could see some tropical genesis into the GOM in the long range.MJO has nothing but weak signals in a few days as it looks to die out right now.

[AMZ8990]

55 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Looks warm upcoming Monday and Tuesday,especially the western Valley.Could be some strong storms right now Tuesday it seems other than the Southern portions of the Valley.WPC has a slight risk even with FFG east of  Nashville.(More rain for John right now it seems,like he hasn't seen to much lately )

CFS shows a ERW into possibly the Caribbean then maybe into the GOM with maybe a dying KW.Either way,could see some tropical genesis into the GOM in the long range.MJO has nothing but weak signals in a few days as it looks to die out right now.

  Yeah the next two days in Memphis look brutal, heat index in the 112-115 range

[John1122]

I'm amazingly dry this month compared to the last few at only slightly above normal for the month to date so far. 

Take a look at this warm season -NAO stretch. Probably the longest negative summer stretch since 2012-2013.

 

[PowellVolz]

I'm amazingly dry this month compared to the last few at only slightly above normal for the month to date so far. 
Take a look at this warm season -NAO stretch. Probably the longest negative summer stretch since 2012-2013.
 

I watered my front lawn yesterday afternoon just in case we have a dry stretch the next week or so. Ground water is still good but I could tell the surface was drying out.


.

[Windspeed]

Posting this in the OBS and medium-long range threads just so everyone notices:

000
NOUS64 KMRX 121054
FTMMRX
Message Date:  Aug 12 2019 10:56:47

KMRX RADAR IS GOING DOWN FOR MODIFICATIONS AND WILL BE DOWN THROUGH 8/16/2019. B
ET

 

[John1122]

Figures the radar would be out and a severe threat would pop up. 

Also take it easy in West Tennessee, saw that the HI could close in on 120 in the Western Valley.

[PowellVolz]

Looks active this afternoon CWA wide. 3-4K surface cap per NAM. Lotta lightning with that


.

[Carvers Gap]

There is a bit of irony as I type this, because a line of afternoon storms is approaching my location.  Anyway, some other folks mentioned the ground surface beginning to dry.  Man, my yard is baked.  As we begin to see the ENSO moved towards a Nada or slightly less by maybe winter...the heat, reduced rainfall(Weeklies are ugly in terms of precip), and scorching temps show some tendencies towards La Nina climatology already.  Scorching hot summers that never end along with a tendency towards a dry pattern(we have had less rain than the Plateau all summer) over E TN certainly appear to depict an atmosphere depcoupling with El Nino fairly rapidly.  Weak La Nina's can be fickle in that they have extremes.  I suspect we are about to enter a pattern where we go 4-6 weeks of really warm followed by 4-6 weeks of really cool.  Robert had a great write-up on WxSouth regarding his upcoming winter thoughts on FB.  Worth a read for sure.  Basically, he mentioned that La Nina winters (or even slightly negative if I remember correctly) have been more conducive towards cold than weak El Nino winters which up until recently were money.  States that he feels that a lean towards La Nina might be indicative over a cooler winter vs the El Nino which now seems to(at any level) release so much heat that the SE is AN.  All of that plays into the short range forecast for the next few weeks as it looks very warm and very dry....even though MBY is about to get some much needed rainfall.

[Carvers Gap]

@John1122 did the summer and fall of 1993 have any resemblance to the current pattern?  Saw that Newman on the main board said that 93-94 looked fairly similar in terms of ENSO.  

[jaxjagman]

On 8/11/2019 at 5:13 PM, jaxjagman said:

Looks warm upcoming Monday and Tuesday,especially the western Valley.Could be some strong storms right now Tuesday it seems other than the Southern portions of the Valley.WPC has a slight risk even with FFG east of  Nashville.(More rain for John right now it seems,like he hasn't seen to much lately )

CFS shows a ERW into possibly the Caribbean then maybe into the GOM with maybe a dying KW.Either way,could see some tropical genesis into the GOM in the long range.MJO has nothing but weak signals in a few days as it looks to die out right now.

 

[John1122]

On 8/13/2019 at 12:58 PM, Carvers Gap said:

@John1122 did the summer and fall of 1993 have any resemblance to the current pattern?  Saw that Newman on the main board said that 93-94 looked fairly similar in terms of ENSO.  

Sumner of 1993 was very dry and very hot. July 1993 was over 90 all but 2 days of the month in Knoxville, with multiple days between 96-100, and those two days below 90 it was 89. Only rained about 2 inches in both June and July. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, John1122 said:

Sumner of 1993 was very dry and very hot. July 1993 was over 90 all but 2 days of the month in Knoxville, with multiple days between 96-100, and those two days below 90 it was 89. Only rained about 2 inches in both June and July. 

Thanks.  I was out of the country during that summer as I shared in the ENSO thread.  I put some analog stuff over there as well.  The current Pacific set-up is quite similar to the summers of 93 and 05, though not a perfect match.  They are also quite similar in how the ENSO pattern unfolded during the couple of years that preceded each.  Anyway, so I noticed it was very dry here during '93.  However, there was a strong precip anomaly(heavy rain) centered over the mid-West and eastern Plains.  The similarity is that precip area is now displaced south and east this summer...and the MS river is has run full since spring, though not sure of its current status.  The winter of '94 is the one I always forget in terms of cold, because Knoxville didn't get as much snow as the Plateau.  However, the winter was reasonably severe in terms of cold outbreaks.  I do think that might have been the winter where I got caught in a convective snow squall near the Cherry St exit - what a mess.  Just kicking around some things during late summer.  Thanks again for the info.  I always say that I trust your climatology information over pretty much all other sources.

[John1122]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thanks.  I was out of the country during that summer as I shared in the ENSO thread.  I put some analog stuff over there as well.  The current Pacific set-up is quite similar to the summers of 93 and 05, though not a perfect match.  They are also quite similar in how the ENSO pattern unfolded during the couple of years that preceded each.  Anyway, so I noticed it was very dry here during '93.  However, there was a strong precip anomaly(heavy rain) centered over the mid-West and eastern Plains.  The similarity is that precip area is now displaced south and east this summer...and the MS river is has run full since spring, though not sure of its current status.  The winter of '94 is the one I always forget in terms of cold, because Knoxville didn't get as much snow as the Plateau.  However, the winter was reasonably severe in terms of cold outbreaks.  I do think that might have been the winter where I got caught in a convective snow squall near the Cherry St exit - what a mess.  Just kicking around some things during late summer.  Thanks again for the info.  I always say that I trust your climatology information over pretty much all other sources.

If I remember correctly the only thing they had in common was the last massive severe thunderstorm that produced a major flash flood in the LaFollette area also happened that summer of 1993.   It wasn't as wide spread as the big storm earlier this summer, but a smaller area got over 2 inches of rain in about 20 minutes in early July one evening. It put several city blocks under 3 or 4 feet of water.  The big storm earlier this year was over a bigger area and had 6-8 inches of rain over a couple hours.  It was notable in my mind for wind because it blew down a lot of trees here.  Like 20-30 large oak trees. I got rain but not as heavy as LaFollette.  It was just an extremely hot afternoon where a big storm popped up and got violent for that 20-30 minutes. It's the strongest wind event I've seen to this day. I'm certain it's just a coincidence though that two big pop up flooding storms happened that year and this one. The warm season weather pattern that year and this one are not at all similar here. That winter of 1993 was warm though. Until late February,  we had 4 inches of snow  the last few days of Feb 1993, then of course the blizzard two weeks later. 

[Carvers Gap]

12 hours ago, John1122 said:

If I remember correctly the only thing they had in common was the last massive severe thunderstorm that produced a major flash flood in the LaFollette area also happened that summer of 1993.   It wasn't as wide spread as the big storm earlier this summer, but a smaller area got over 2 inches of rain in about 20 minutes in early July one evening. It put several city blocks under 3 or 4 feet of water.  The big storm earlier this year was over a bigger area and had 6-8 inches of rain over a couple hours.  It was notable in my mind for wind because it blew down a lot of trees here.  Like 20-30 large oak trees. I got rain but not as heavy as LaFollette.  It was just an extremely hot afternoon where a big storm popped up and got violent for that 20-30 minutes. It's the strongest wind event I've seen to this day. I'm certain it's just a coincidence though that two big pop up flooding storms happened that year and this one. The warm season weather pattern that year and this one are not at all similar here. That winter of 1993 was warm though. Until late February,  we had 4 inches of snow  the last few days of Feb 1993, then of course the blizzard two weeks later. 

Joe D'Aleo had a great post on the Pacific setup potential leading to a colder OND about a week ago.  He also mentioned the flooding today.  Pretty uncanny how close the setup looks compared to July.  Everything is slightly displaced, but similar features.  Two inches of rain in twenty minutes!  Holy Moly!  

[jaxjagman]

Climo has been working the last couple weeks.We haven't had much rain recently here but still are in the top 5 for the year to date.Aug-Oct are typically the dry months in the Valley.Parts of the SE Valley are in a abnormal/moderate drought.Looks unsettled the next few days maybe tho

[Carvers Gap]

Great post, Jax.  What is crazy is how wet that the year started...some places were close to near records as John noted earlier by mid-year...also as noted on Jax's map above.  I mean we have a thread regarding concerns of full TVA reservoirs from spring.  What is even crazier is how quickly things have dried out.  MBY has thankfully received some decent rain this week.  Maybe I need to talk about how dry the pattern looks more often(like washing my car).  Here is the drought monitor map for the US.  What is notable is drought developing around the TN river corridor in northern Alabama and some moderate to extreme drought developing in central Alabama.  Would be great to get a report from someone in that area. Until the rain from the last couple of days, my yard was beginning to look about as bad as it has ever looked.   I think it likely that the cooling SSTs in the easter equatorial Pacific along with seasonal temperance of the late summer precip pattern have likely "turned off the spigot."  We really have been in a similar pattern since early December of last year with some periodic moderation.  I "think" we are about to see a fairly significant shift in the atmospheric weather pattern over NA as evidenced by the reduction in precip in relation to SSTs over the SE.  Obviously, part of that pattern change will simply be a response to the changing of seasons and the march towards winter.  

A quick note on the Euro Weeklies...I had noticed this and JB mentioned it today.  They are absent of any cold air in the LR...like none over most of NA.  They have missed the cool intrusions into the nation's mid-sections.  They simply don't appear to be able to see cool air past about week 2 or 3.  This is even more than their normal bias.  The CFS is cold, and likely overly much.  Anyway, the 500 pattern on the Weeklies does imply that a trough might develop over the EC by early October w a corresponding trough just east of HI.  I wonder if the Labor Day "cool down" might actually be a precursor to the current pattern finally breaking, but not before rebounding for a period after Labor Day.  

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Great post, Jax.  What is crazy is how wet that the year started...some places were close to near records as John noted earlier by mid-year...also as noted on Jax's map above.  I mean we have a thread regarding concerns of full TVA reservoirs from spring.  What is even crazier is how quickly things have dried out.  MBY has thankfully received some decent rain this week.  Maybe I need to talk about how dry the pattern looks more often(like washing my car).  Here is the drought monitor map for the US.  What is notable is drought developing around the TN river corridor in northern Alabama and some moderate to extreme drought developing in central Alabama.  Would be great to get a report from someone in that area. Until the rain from the last couple of days, my yard was beginning to look about as bad as it has ever looked.   I think it likely that the cooling SSTs in the easter equatorial Pacific along with seasonal temperance of the late summer precip pattern have likely "turned off the spigot."  We really have been in a similar pattern since early December of last year with some periodic moderation.  I "think" we are about to see a fairly significant shift in the atmospheric weather pattern over NA as evidenced by the reduction in precip in relation to SSTs over the SE.  Obviously, part of that pattern change will simply be a response to the changing of seasons and the march towards winter.  

A quick note on the Euro Weeklies...I had noticed this and JB mentioned it today.  They are absent of any cold air in the LR...like none over most of NA.  They have missed the cool intrusions into the nation's mid-sections.  They simply don't appear to be able to see cool air past about week 2 or 3.  This is even more than their normal bias.  The CFS is cold, and likely overly much.  Anyway, the 500 pattern on the Weeklies does imply that a trough might develop over the EC by early October w a corresponding trough just east of HI.  I wonder if the Labor Day "cool down" might actually be a precursor to the current pattern finally breaking, but not before rebounding for a period after Labor Day.  

Like to see the drought get knocked out some how in the SE this would help delineate a SER this winter.ENSO is quite different from last year right now when it was more east based.Jamstec did well in our parts last winter,warm and wet which is showed in August but it missed the upper plains big time,but this could also be with the help of the early SSWE in Dec

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Like to see the drought get knocked out some how in the SE this would help delineate a SER this winter.ENSO is quite different from last year right now when it was more east based.Jamstec did well in our parts last winter,warm and wet which is showed in August but it missed the upper plains big time,but this could also be with the help of the early SSWE in Dec

What is going to be a pain is that -NAO is likely going to go into a positive phase soon.  Will be interesting to see the QBO at the end of this month.  If it starts to fall at some point between now and December, that is a very good sign.

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

What is going to be a pain is erthat -NAO is likely going to go into a positive phase soon.  Will be interesting to see the QBO at the end of this month.  If it starts to fall at some point between now and December, that is a very good sign.

Yeah we don't know how the QBO will act,it was negative for over a year before it crapped out into the winter last winter.But  this kept the PV weak just as well and we had the early SSWE.If it stays on the positive side we very well could see the PV become a brick

[John1122]

Had some rain again Thursday and big rains Friday that caused a 2 hour delay for the local HS football game from a thunderstorm that just crept across the area, it took those two hours for it to move 20 miles. Had additional showers over night and a rainy week is upcoming by the way things look. August is AN for precip here, as has every month of the year to date been AN except for May, which was right at normal. There's nothing remotely dry about lawns or anything else imby. Was talking to someone from Cocke County (that's who Campbell County played Friday night) and they said their yard was turning brown though and that they'd had hardly any rain since July.  I am not really sure how or why SE Kentucky is in the drought monitor tbh, they have areas there in drought that were 5-8 inches AN for precip in June and 3-4 inches AN in July according to AHPS precipitation maps. It's not like they've gotten no rain in August either in those areas.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Had some rain again Thursday and big rains Friday that caused a 2 hour delay for the local HS football game from a thunderstorm that just crept across the area, it took those two hours for it to move 20 miles. Had additional showers over night and a rainy week is upcoming by the way things look. August is AN for precip here, as has every month of the year to date been AN except for May, which was right at normal. There's nothing remotely dry about lawns or anything else imby. Was talking to someone from Cocke County (that's who Campbell County played Friday night) and they said their yard was turning brown though and that they'd had hardly any rain since July.  I am not really sure how or why SE Kentucky is in the drought monitor tbh, they have areas there in drought that were 5-8 inches AN for precip in June and 3-4 inches AN in July according to AHPS precipitation maps. It's not like they've gotten no rain in August either in those areas.

We received a lot of rain last week at my house thankfully even to the point that flooding was beginning to be on the table.  I think SE KY was just listed as abnormally dry.  I tried to get the key to the map on the pic, but the pic was just too big.  So, it likely looks worse than it is.  I am not sure what the criteria is for abnormally dry either(maybe they are pulling ground moisture or foliage stress via satellite?).  I know that July and early August dried out the ground quickly here.  My yard went from a beautiful green to just brown in about three weeks.  It looks much better this morning other than the grassy areas that died back to the heat and dry weather.    My backyard is just fried...south facing slope that just was baked.  I know we have had a lot of wind out of the east during the past month which might be a slight downslope that is drying things out even with rain.   KTRI was BN for rainfall July, but received about 2" last week which may actually get us above normal ironically.  Temps for both months are about two degrees AN which is pretty warm considering it is already the warmest time of the year.  Looks like there was a 3-4 week period with very little rain from mid-July to mid-August.  I think it even likely the airport received a tad more in July due to some pop-up storms in that area.  I will see if I can find a Kingsport rain gauge near house.   Other than this weekend, we have had a lot of sunny days, even when we received rain...so maybe that is the culprit.   High temps, while warm, were not excessive - maybe even erroneously hyped via the media at times.  However, there were a couple of weeks where the "Real Feel" was very warm.  

[nrgjeff]

Hopefully those 3-4 dry weeks were a blip. I had to water a tired looking lawn, but it never got really brown - perhaps thanks to the deeper moisture. Some of the later model guidance has the return of the southern stream. Just hope it's up here and not buried in the Deep South.

I like the cool-down last couple days. Really looking forward to a low humidity version later this week. Next warm-up after Labor Day looks bearable with reasonable dewpoints. Getting to the time of year we don't instantly snap back to 72 Td yuck. Back half of September may verify AN if the global wind stays down. However it's weeks 3-4 in a choppy pattern.

Farther down the road, I believe the trend of the QBO is somewhat useful, even though the snapshot of the sign is not. Falling from positive, reaching negative by winter, may be a cooler signal than starting negative and hoping.  Yeah, I also like closers over breakers in horse and dog racing.

[Carvers Gap]

Some of the latest hurricane guidance brings Dorian int the eastern mountains of TN and western mountains of NC.  Probably just need to keep an eye on it.  Still far enough out there that any operational solution at that range(and knowing that tropical systems are notoriously fickly to track w that trajectory) has to be seen as one of many possible outcomes.  Still, might bring some rains into the spine of the Apps, and that can be a crap shoot as to how bad it gets up there...think Opal.

[Greyhound]

yeah.....I'm headed to PCB next weekend, so I'm already on Hurricane watch 

[Carvers Gap]

Bout to close out the summer of 2019 and reach meteorological fall...looks like summer will return with a fury during mid-September as the nice, nice break from the hot temps will continue through next week when another heat ridge will likely return.  Looks like my call for a nice football Saturday is going to go to crap as it will be get hot even though sandwiched between some really nice weather.  Overall, not too excited about what I am seeing beginning in about 10-12 days...return to potentially very hot temperatures if the 12z EPS mean is to be believed. Even the GEFS with its incredibly cold bias shows some warm returning about that time frame.  Pretty frustrating past ten days right now as both models have developed some nasty bias problems since I was looking more closely last spring.  The EPS and Weeklies are biased very warm - more than usual.  The new GFS is almost as ridiculously cold.  Could be a very tough winter forecasting if those trends continue.  And hey, the closer this hurricane gets without actually reaching the area...the hotter it will get.

MBY has finally turned green again.  I deplore hot fall temps... Either way, it is football time in Tennessee and around the country.  Some nice games on TV for the next five days beginning tonight.  Enjoy!

[nrgjeff]

Unfortunately the ECMWF looks correct. EPS and Weeklies both the Euro is a lot warmer than the GEFS and CFS. Regrettably, in contrast to the last two false alarms. the Euro torch may be right.

Previous two Euro torches, that whiffed, were also in the wake of tropical cyclones. Euro left the upper ridge behind; surface ridges/fronts verified for the cooler win. This time is similar but different for two reasons.

1. Mid-latitude support is forecast. Pac NW trough is progged next week, which supports SER or Smoky Mtn Ridge (even worse).

2. GLAAM is tanked hard negative. Frankly this sux. The only way my frown turns smile is a Midwest severe wx outbreak with that trough.

Tennessee lost and the Euro won. Wake me up about mid-October. Late Night and fall foliage.

[PisgahNCWeather]

Dang Jeff, nobody was asking you for your honest thoughts going forward! Just kidding as we do appreciate your thoughts even if it isn't remotely what we want to hear.  I'll continue to work on the Nibiru idea as it may be all we got left.