Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.

[jaxjagman]

25 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

00z EURO is Lakes Cutter, ramps thunderstorms up Sun afternoon.

Yeah, cuts through around the Ozarks around 12z into Ky 18z.As it does the LLJ strenghtens to around 50-60kts and drives the DP'S into the lower 60's

[Holston_River_Rambler]

At least it moves. I guess that's all there is positive to say. I don't see anything in the next two weeks involving "training" or "stalled out."

[Carvers Gap]

Definitely can see model bias in they AM's model runs.  Winter precip threats on the 6z GFS(progressive) and rain on the Euro(tends to be amped a bit much).  Though, just looking at recent events and the trends for those, the Euro is probably more likely to be correct.  The CMC also has a threat as well.  If any of these slps take the low road, then they will need to be watched.   Spring systems are notoriously late bloomers on modeling.  Though the past two or three suites are definitely looking more liquid than frozen.  An active STJ looks to persist.  Speaking of model busts(I had mentioned this earlier), the Mountain West was expecting a lower than normal water year.  I saw a pick of a fly shop in Montana with snow half way up the side of the building.  It is going to be a good water year out there.  Just a couple of years ago, much of the nation was experiencing severe drought.  The Tennessee Valley has often been a place of feast/famine regarding precip...great example of this over the past five years.  My least favorite event is a moderate La Nina summer....looks like we avoid that this upcoming summer.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z UKMET not too far from something with the 3/4-5/6 wave. Definitely enough room for any NW trend for now.

 

Euro has it but more suppressed. If this one jumps as far as the 3/2-3 wave has, might not be too bad. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

RGEM getting a little interesting for parts of SW VA tomorrow. 

 

Just one model and a curiosity at this point (really enjoying the sun this PM), but Euro was south-ish at 12z today and the 18z GFS is south-ish too. 

[John1122]

The 18z NAM was snowy. The 00z looks less so. It's going to be a bone chilling rain. It's 40 degrees here with a sharp north wind. 

[jaxjagman]

22 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The 18z NAM was snowy. The 00z looks less so. It's going to be a bone chilling rain. It's 40 degrees here with a sharp north wind. 

Ready for this to end.Winter really sucked basically here.The whole Nino was more Nina all winter.Basically we had three dustings :(If it snows like your map shows this would be the best snows all winter,,,blah

[Windspeed]

Bristol to Abingdon may be just cold enough to change over and steal 2-3 inches in Holston Valley. Obviously higher elevations should do better. 5-6 inches doesn't seem impossible above 2000 ft.

[jaxjagman]

There seems to be a potential wet pattern upcoming.The RRWT has been doing a good job with rain fall in the Valley for awhile.When the MJO gets into P3 this is typically a wet pattern in the Valley with possible convection, until it gets into the COD,then who knows.But you factor in lag time the mid month.This looks like a wet period upcoming.I posted a system coming off East Asia in the severe thread which looks pretty strong upcoming which would effect us mid month,we'll see

[John1122]

The 06z NAM has went bonkers on pivotal. I suspect there must be something wrong with the snow map there, at least for eastern areas.

[Windspeed]

Bristol to Abingdon may be just cold enough to change over and steal 2-3 inches in Holston Valley. Obviously higher elevations should do better. 5-6 inches doesn't seem impossible above 2000 ft.

lol...Yeah, this is definitely looking impossible now. I should have known better!

[Carvers Gap]

Fortunately LR modeling has been undependable to say the least lately....Why would I say that?  Because LR modeling is not warm right now.  Keep in mind we are talking about this relative to spring temps.  Not talking snow.  Not talking frozen precip.  Cold rain.  Cold, cold rain.  Maybe the Canadian will be right?

[jaxjagman]

 GEFS and Euro want to kill the MJO off to fast,looks more progressive

[Carvers Gap]

Rain and snow mix in the NE TN and SW VA(assuming SE KY as well) this AM with some warm advection type, short-lived stuff.  Just looking at LR modeling, looks like we indeed might be in the middle of a pattern reshuffle.  We likely see 4-6 days of AN heights upcoming followed by more a more amplified troughs rotating through.  Big ridge in the West.  This continues a pattern of LR modeling struggling recently, i.e. referencing the long predicted cold pattern that never came during winter.  I don't think the reshuffle is a slam dunk, but it certainly appears that the ENSO state might now be coupling with the spring atmospheric pattern.  I think the rainy pattern continues, but getting rid of the persistent ridging which has enhanced precip would be nice.  Again, since we are out of winter, I am just talking pattern stuff and not snow.  Do I think higher elevation snow is over? No.  It is not uncommon for the last snows to fall well into April above 5,000'.  I may be wrong...but what I am seeing after a warm week next week is a cooler pattern.  We may indeed finish BN for March at TRI.  Our monthly temp average so far is 36.9 which would currently be colder than the overall temp average(entire month) of any of the individual months of meteorological winter.  Probably won't stay that way w a forecast of near 70 on Sunday...but interesting number to cherry pick this AM and gives a good idea of just how cold this first week of March has been.

[PowellVolz]

Any thoughts on the next 3-4 weeks? Also I picked up a new mower this year.


.

[Carvers Gap]

On "positive" note, that great winter pattern that many were expecting during late winter(including me) looks like it will finally arrive during mid-spring.   Well part of it anyway as the Pacific is about cooperate in placing a trough into the EC(big ridge out West) making our weather that much more miserable.  Excessive cold rain was not enough salt in the wound.  Now, we have the opportunity for excessive, really cold rain.  So excited about this pattern change.  So, so.....so....excited.    

 

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

On "positive" note, that great winter pattern that many were expecting during late winter(including me) looks like it will finally arrive during mid-spring.   Well part of it anyway as the Pacific is about cooperate in placing a trough into the EC(big ridge out West) making our weather that much more miserable.  Excessive cold rain was not enough salt in the wound.  Now, we have the opportunity for excessive, really cold rain.  So excited about this pattern change.  So, so.....so....excited.    

 

We pretty well knew this would happen, unfortunately. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 I'm kind of optimistic we have maybe a week or two of it, then get some warmer weather. And at least with a trough we get more movement (aka more sunny days) than if we are just south of an endless screaming ST jet. 

Also, GFS has been consistently day 10+ showing rain up into Canada. That's gotta be warmer than being just 200 miles south of the R/S line. Euro isn't quite there yet on its runs, but the control looks mildish:

 

EPS looks like it wants to go warm too after day 10:

 

But as Tellico will say, 24hrs = long range this winter, so who knows. 

You have to think though, no SSW, April around the corner, we have to have some warmer weather sooner or later. Crankyweatherdude has been pretty good with his analysis of the Pac jet (whether predictive skill or just observation of reality) and he seems to think the flip comes after the mid month blip:

 

 

I've been waiting for one of these big red/ yellow surges to show up on these maps. Hopefully it makes it back to our hemisphere. 

[CheeselandSkies]

59 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I've been waiting for one of these big red/ yellow surges to show up on these maps. Hopefully it makes it back to our hemisphere. 

I REALLY hope this verifies.

[Carvers Gap]

Both the GEFS and EPS ensembles look a bit better this AM as Holston noted.  Looks a little more like a zonal pattern will eventually try to undercut the western ridge....cause we know that western ridge has verified like zero times since mid-January.  So, it well might be that the models pulled another head fake towards a cooler pattern.  I probably shouldn't have bit...but it happens.  Definitely agree that ensembles look improved today.

[nrgjeff]

I agree with Carvers (last two posts now) that March may close out cooler than normal. However it'll be close after all the sloshing around. 

Then I look for April warmer than normal. Euro weeklies last Thursday keep it cool a few weeks; however, they have been unreliable for months. Latest Euro ensembles end milder, and Euro monthly is mild April; perhaps weeklies will follow warmer tonight. CFS warms up April; it's been able to sniff out the shorter cold periods.

CrankyWx is probably right about the Pac jet. A look at the Japanese satellite shows convection already blowing up again in the Indian Ocean, bound for the warm maritime continent. All that junk in colder phases at/east of the Dateline should have a fleeting impact only.

Oh yeah the door is about shut on SSW. Upper strato is trying to warm. However the lower layers still have a positive wind. We're good. Start spring baby!

[mempho]

On "positive" note, that great winter pattern that many were expecting during late winter(including me) looks like it will finally arrive during mid-spring.   Well part of it anyway as the Pacific is about cooperate in placing a trough into the EC(big ridge out West) making our weather that much more miserable.  Excessive cold rain was not enough salt in the wound.  Now, we have the opportunity for excessive, really cold rain.  So excited about this pattern change.  So, so.....so....excited.    

 

Personally, I like the cool temps, so bring it!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3k NAM (only the best) rather excited about LeConte tonight. Tauntauns might be out, lol

 

Some T-storms showing up on some models for this PM too. Wonder if we will see any thunder/ hail/ graupel. MRX:

this afternoon...a short wave trough digs in and convective energy increases.
Current forecast seems to have a decent handle on this, and still
appears there could be some pea size hail/graupel with the
heavier showers and possibly even a few rumbles of thunder.

[Jed33]

Just had one of those storms roll through town here about an hour ago. Several close strikes of lightning and close to 15min of heavy rain mixed with pea sized hail.

[Blue Ridge]

18 hours ago, Jed33 said:

Just had one of those storms roll through town here about an hour ago. Several close strikes of lightning and close to 15min of heavy rain mixed with pea sized hail.

I saw the elevated DBZ passing over Morristown and the KMRX radar site and wondered just what the hell was happening under it. I don't believe I heard a single rumble of thunder ~30 miles east.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Ye olden Euro was interesting this PM. 5 days out. Isn't that the closest anything has come since December? (minus the miracle Sevier/ Blount county/ Dayton leeside micro low storm)

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Wow, not sure what's up with the precip depiction/ accum maps:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

UKMET looks decent at 500 mb and EPS shows some cold. 

 

 

 

[Wurbus]

Quite a few big dogs on the ensemble's as well. I moved the sleds from the garage to under the house last weekend, so that seems about right to have a chance of a little snow to cap off this crazy winter.

[BlunderStorm]

If I got such as a flurry of what was depicted I'd have a smile. No other globals I've seen support it but what're you gonna do. The global ensemble system does throw some of us in the far northeast a bone but it's mainly focused to the blue ridge and east. Other than the obvious issues of this taking place in broad daylight during April of all months it seems the storm will more than likely stray too far east to significantly affect us. Let's cross our fingers and hope for more support from model guidance.