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March Disco


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Birch bender to start my season and one to end?  Boy would that be a disaster up here.  Our road is so muddy that there would be no way for the town to ever plow.  With a deep snow and the mud ruts underneath no one is getting up or down my hill if that came to fruition.  Hopefully this slips further SE and spares me.  SNE please take this one.  We don't need more.

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Where is the northern stream vort currently reside?  We've notoriously seen northern stream energy come in too slow in the mid-range on models.

It’s rotating and breaking off the pv lobe in davis straight within next 12 hours or so.

Edit: Actually, it’s coming over the top the ridge in western canada. 

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3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

This is true, get the 978 mb low and park it off the eastern tip of Long Island, definitely possible with 4ish days to go....

Could be there on the next run...or not lol.  But it's close to something sweet, if we can just get it to phase in a little quicker, and with 3.5 days to go that certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility.

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5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Where is the northern stream vort currently reside?  We've notoriously seen northern stream energy come in too slow in the mid-range on models.

There are several pieces, some of which are hard to see on WV because cirrus and/or being at the edge of the picture hides them. Also another piece farther up in the Arctic as best I can tell. If you loop GOES 17 high level WV you can see them better.

vorts.thumb.PNG.e6b2afe69232e2c86afe367af4d1388a.PNG

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1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

There are several pieces, some of which are hard to see on WV because cirrus and/or being at the edge of the picture hides them. Also another piece farther up in the Arctic as best I can tell. If you loop GOES 17 high level WV you can see them better.

vorts.thumb.PNG.e6b2afe69232e2c86afe367af4d1388a.PNG

That’s a good image. If you take that and grab a 500mb vort plot, you can see how messy it is. Guidance won’t resolve this for awhile. 

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