40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2019 Author Share Posted March 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: When the fv3 and cmc the only ones showing the possibility....it’s as remote as it gets. I'd argue that the GFS, EURO and UK all show the possibility. Sorry they don't all shake hands on a blizzard. Man, I overestimated you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Ukie again is more to the east, but that Ontario energy tries to build in and expand the precip shield it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2019 Author Share Posted March 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Ukie again is more to the east, but that Ontario energy tries to build in and expand the precip shield it seems. People just can't wrap their minds around how perilously close it is to a big hit. I agree that it probably isn't happening, but that isn't the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd argue that the GFS, EURO and UK all show the possibility. Sorry they don't all shake hands on a blizzard. Man, I overestimated you. You seem to be emotionally invested in this I just want a EPS member to show a bomb just SE of MVY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: People just can't wrap their minds around how perilously close it is to a big hit. I agree that it probably isn't happening, but that isn't the point. Right, it's a low prob...but hey it's semi-interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Right, it's a low prob...but hey it's semi-interesting. Says the guy pump’d if we get a driving rain storm from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd argue that the GFS, EURO and UK all show the possibility. Sorry they don't all shake hands on a blizzard. Man, I overestimated you. He's fine, just jaded from this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: People just can't wrap their minds around how perilously close it is to a big hit. I agree that it probably isn't happening, but that isn't the point. Also throw in the western crowd vs eastern crowd and what each of those areas expect with deepening coastal systems exiting stage right. Not surprising those further SE in New England aren't quite as into the set up even if it worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Says the guy pump’d if we get a driving rain storm from this I'd rather have 5" of wind driven paste, then 18" of fluffy ennui. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd rather have 5" of wind driven paste, then 18" of fluffy ennui. I'll take the 18"... it'll all be gone soon anyway. Sounds like a good storm... 18" of deform delight here and 5" of condo crusher for you pasted sideways on the street signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'll take the 18"... it'll all be gone soon anyway. Sounds like a good storm... 18" of deform delight here and 5" of condo crusher for you pasted sideways on the street signs. Forgot to mention damage and 70mph winds. Otherwise, no deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 I actually really enjoy a rainy nor’easter unless we’re past 5/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd argue that the GFS, EURO and UK all show the possibility. Sorry they don't all shake hands on a blizzard. Man, I overestimated you. EMA is close to a event, deff worth watching. But you need to understand those of us outside the boston circle jerk have zero interest, it’s not even close for us in the SW zones. And don’t sell yourself short.....You’ve done a standout job estimating me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Best case scenario I see up here is it can get phased in and retrograde into a huge cyclonic upslope event for NNE. Then we can watch the post count drop at record pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: People just can't wrap their minds around how perilously close it is to a big hit. I agree that it probably isn't happening, but that isn't the point. Wrap your mind around this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I actually really enjoy a rainy nor’easter unless we’re past 5/1. Like between 4/1 and 5/1? I have a hard time thinking you'd love a rainy nor'easter in Feb/Mar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 It's not like ern areas are only worried about QPF. It's a temp profile issue too. Trust me, we aren't that much better than western areas. And it's sort of early to rule anything out right now. Next week looks like it could also feature a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's not like ern areas are only worried about QPF. It's a temp profile issue too. Trust me, we aren't that much better than western areas. And it's sort of early to rule anything out right now. Next week looks like it could also feature a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's not like ern areas are only worried about QPF. It's a temp profile issue too. Trust me, we aren't that much better than western areas. And it's sort of early to rule anything out right now. Next week looks like it could also feature a biggie. Yeah FV3 sh*tshow model brought 18-24" up here but half of that was upslope. You just climo wise nod your head at E.Mass to coastal Maine for bigger impacts in this set-up. Run that situation 100 times on a model and E.Mass "wins" it many more than any other region. Still fun to have something to track...or have a reason to look at the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: People just can't wrap their minds around how perilously close it is to a big hit. I agree that it probably isn't happening, but that isn't the point. Count not agree with you more. Folks instantly make a jump to "there is no way this is happening or show me a model that calls for a region-wide blizzard" when the statement is just about how meteorologically close this is to a remember-able bomb event! Will it happen, probably not and yes eastern areas are closer to trouble than western areas, but the atmospheric setup is only a hair off from being a truly wild event. Again, I am not calling for it, but I can certainly appreciate the closeness of the pattern to a nasty event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah FV3 sh*tshow model brought 18-24" up here but half of that was upslope. You just climo wise nod your head at E.Mass to coastal Maine for bigger impacts in this set-up. Run that situation 100 times on a model and E.Mass "wins" it many more than any other region. Still fun to have something to track...or have a reason to look at the models. Either way, looks good for upslope in some shape or form there. Big closed low to the northeast eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Either way, looks good for upslope in some shape or form there. Big closed low to the northeast eventually. We're all on edge over the Mansfield stake at 3k....what will that reading be in 5 days? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We're all on edge over the Mansfield stake at 3k....what will that reading be in 5 days? Personally it’s the parking lot snow images that get my mojo going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Euro about to be cooking up something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro about to be cooking up something. For this week, or next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 How bout that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: For this week, or next? Given he made that post at 10 after ....this week potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Euro may try and flash thursday night/Friday morning to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Either way, looks good for upslope in some shape or form there. Big closed low to the northeast eventually. Ha you clowns. I'm on my way to Florida until Friday. Can't give you Stake updates till then. Maybe even a parking lot photo of an upslope blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Given he made that post at 10 after ....this week potentially Lol...I keep forgetting that everything is an hour later now due to DST...my mistake. I was still thinking the Euro came out an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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