Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 4:15 PM, dendrite said: I'm not going to get sucked into that question at this point...lol If it ends up a weak, strung-out mess then maybe there's mixed showers down in SNE, but if that's the case, who cares about ptype, right? Expand Of course, just poking the nest a bit, lol. I’m kinda checked out personally and not expecting much, but still would be happy with an unexpected surprise if it were in the cards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 4:17 PM, wxsniss said: Regarding that elusive appropriately timed / strong enough shortwave in the otherwise favorable setup with meridionally amplified flow along with some relaxation off the northeast coast... That shortwave responsible for Mar 21-22 should be riding up the ridge and entering the BC coast in the next 24 hours... not sure how much the density of data input changes over land, but we *could* be seeing a bunch of models abruptly jump towards a better solution today into Monday... Expand I thought it was already on-board... huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Fv3 Jacks me with 26". Gotta be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 4:32 PM, SouthCoastMA said: Fv3 Jacks me with 26". Gotta be correct Expand I love the FV3. Its like a fantasy storm entertainment model. Like roller coaster tycoon for snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 4:16 PM, EastonSN+ said: On queue FV3 lost it too far east. Expand "Lost" ? Not sure it ever "had it" far enough west to begin with - at least I'm not familiar with any prior model cycles where it depicted it so... No, if anything, from a Meteorological perspective this was a higher impact solution when assessing using the 500 mb chart synoptic evolution and the fact that any surface response may or may not have been too far E as this particular run goes is mutable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 For eastern areas though ...wow what a cake job ...windy one too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 The FV3 is garbage. The only reason why I am mildly interested in this threat is because it is being hinted at a bit by the other models/ensembles. I will give this another 36 hours before I put this threat to rest or buy into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 4:32 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I thought it was already on-board... huh Expand Yeah, I think this is it circled... at 6z Sunday using FV3... so the responsible shortwave is on-board as of this morning... let's see if models today abruptly crystallize around something interesting as a result... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Ukie is a bit interesting at D5...wide right but not by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 LOL the 12z FV3 is a grid annihilator. That thing went into James’ fanny. Didn’t look east to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 4:54 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL the 12z FV3 is a grid annihilator. That thing went into James’ fanny. Didn’t look east to me? Expand East of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 4:43 PM, wxsniss said: Yeah, I think this is it circled... at 6z Sunday using FV3... so the responsible shortwave is on-board as of this morning... let's see if models today abruptly crystallize around something interesting as a result... Expand yes, it's in the NW territories now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 4:56 PM, EastonSN+ said: East of 6z Expand I guess it depends on your view. Nothing had it near Chatham previously. It developed and curled north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 4:54 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL the 12z FV3 is a grid annihilator. That thing went into James’ fanny. Didn’t look east to me? Expand The change for wsne is the angle of approach. 12 Z rides 70 up to CC,6 Z was 68.5 to Cape. Sensible weather difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 In any case it’s orobably fantasy, but there’s a lot s/w’s in the flow which is quite meridional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 5:01 PM, Ginx snewx said: The change for wsne is the angle of approach. 12 Z rides 70 up to CC,6 Z was 68.5 to Cape. Sensible weather difference Expand Yeah I mentioned that earlier. Depends on view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Say what you will about the FV3 (and the disparagement is generally warranted), but it has been eerily steadfast with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 He might be also seeing the QPF shifting around too - As other's noted the track is the same.. but there are idiosyncrasies in the QPF layout where 06z was a tad east - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 5:07 PM, Typhoon Tip said: He might be also seeing the QPF shifting around too - As other's noted the track is the same.. but there are idiosyncrasies in the QPF layout where 06z was a tad east - Expand Track is not the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 5:06 PM, apm said: Say what you will about the FV3 (and the disparagement is generally warranted), but it has been eerily steadfast with this... Expand Eek, that means that if it busts it doing so with style, huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 5:07 PM, Ginx snewx said: Track is not the same Expand Not the same as what ? I just went through the last cycle and this one compared... they are not demonstratively different to matter - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 LOL @ the FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 5:06 PM, apm said: Say what you will about the FV3 (and the disparagement is generally warranted), but it has been eerily steadfast with this... Expand It’s steadily awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 5:12 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s steadily awful. Expand Kinda like how the old NOGAPs used to always track our eventual coastals over Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 5:12 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s steadily awful. Expand I'm sure eastern areas will get something, out this way meh...If it isn't going to be a spring blizzard then lets get this cold out of here so we can enjoy this spring early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 5:11 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: LOL @ the FV3. It's the classic Assonet/Freetown/Mattapoisett jackpot late March blizzard...lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Well whatever happens this'll be an interesting test for the parallel GFS ... which as noted has been the demonstrative outlier for amplitude and placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 5:15 PM, Spanks45 said: I'm sure eastern areas will get something, out this way meh...If it isn't going to be a spring blizzard then lets get this cold out of here so we can enjoy this spring early! Expand Doubt anyone gets anything but east is in the best spot. We can remain uninvested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 I'd sacrifice an entire seasons snowfall for that to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 5:28 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Well whatever happens this'll be an interesting test for the parallel GFS ... which as noted has been the demonstrative outlier for amplitude and placement. Expand While I haven’t been running the model scores, the FV3 has had tons of fake news cyclones in the day 6+ timeframe. I know it’s day 5 now, but man it’s gone full weenie so many times before. It’s a bit scary to think it takes the place of the current GFS as we know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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