WinterWolf Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 So the EPS doesn't show the big storm on Monday like the OP shows?? The EPS shows the big storm on Saturday/Sunday??? Is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: So the EPS doesn't show the big storm on Monday like the OP shows?? The EPS shows the big storm on Saturday/Sunday??? Is that right? Yes and no. It has Monday’s event but the spread is about 700 miles either direction. It’s about the biggest spread you can possibly have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So the EPS doesn't show the big storm on Monday like the OP shows?? The EPS shows the big storm on Saturday/Sunday??? Is that right? Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like last hurrah before we spring after the 12-13th or so. Obviously flukes happen too, but the H5 pattern changes. Yup . Early spring this year despite Ginx saying this morning it was nowhere to be seen. We’ve got about 16-20 days and then it’s shorts every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup . Early spring this year despite Ginx saying this morning it was nowhere to be seen. We’ve got about 16-20 days and then it’s shorts every day Less than that pal, The 12th of March is only two weeks from today. So you have two weeks and then it's over if after the 12/13 of March things Flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Pretty much Well that's not to reassuring if you ask me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: Well that's not to reassuring if you ask me.... I probably wouldn't read to much into it, Quite sure its going to change the next several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup . Early spring this year despite Ginx saying this morning it was nowhere to be seen. We’ve got about 16-20 days and then it’s shorts every day Late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I probably wouldn't read to much into it, Quite sure its going to change the next several runs. Yup I agree. I was just meaning that it doesn't really agree with the OP at all??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2019 Author Share Posted February 26, 2019 6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Perhaps ... but, as of last check with NCEP... there's only recently ( ... like, this month) El Nino - Prior to, there never has been ... I mentioned this several weeks ago, that it was delayed? Over these recent several months, at no time had it been abundantly clear... well, actually even suggested really, that the SST/ENSO had sufficiently coupled with the atmospheric circulation medium over the Pacific ... to assume any forcing was/were taking place. That all = El Nada ...haha. As of their most recent publication on Feb 19 they are now saying that the pattern of convection and wind anomalies are more consistent, so that coupling may have finally taken place. The idea that the GEFs ensembles lose it though...getting deeper in to March? I'm not sure either a, if that's rushing a change that is probably going to be slow to evolve seeing as it is now more anchored in that coupled state... or b, normal climo on "weak" warm ENSOs and spring may show that these things terminate quickly in March ... I dunno the latter though. I don't really care about the fact that NCEP hadn't officially designated in and of itself . Once we pass that arbitrary threshold of five consecutive tri monthly ONI readings above +0.5, the period will be considered el nino in hindsight. I think the fact that its been poorly coupled, as evidenced by the weak MEI numbers, is really the point. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2019 Author Share Posted February 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well that's not to reassuring if you ask me.... Why? The EPS is favoring the closer time frame....that is good if you ask me. Guidance is struggling over which wave to focus on, but I would rather have stronger support for a closer time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: Pretty much Big is relative to the year at hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why? The EPS is favoring the closer time frame....that is good if you ask me. Guidance is struggling over which wave to focus on, but I would rather have stronger support for a closer time frame. Exactly, Lets get this one to produce and worry about monday after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2019 Author Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Big is relative to the year at hand. 6-12" will always be moderate in my book. 12"+ is the big leagues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Big is relative to the year at hand. 6"+ would fit big this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2019 Author Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: 6"+ would fit big this season. Everyone is different.....no need to get into this debate. It would be nice to get a bonafide warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Everyone is different.....no need to get into this debate. It would be nice to get a bonafide warning event. Based on your assessment, Nobody other then Freak and NNE has seen a significant event this winter, And that includes here, Nothing close to 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2019 Author Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Based on your assessment, Nobody other then Freak and NNE has seen a significant event this winter, And that includes here, Nothing close to 12". If you want to do this, at least quote me correctly. I said 12"+ is "big leagues".....not significant. 6" of snow is certainly significant....moderate is significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Based on your assessment, Nobody other then Freak and NNE has seen a significant event this winter, And that includes here, Nothing close to 12". We've had several warning events here that were high impact just not huge totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2019 Author Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: We've had several warning events here that were high impact just not huge totals. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If you want to do this, at least quote me correctly. I said 12"+ is "big leagues".....not significant. 6" of snow is certainly significant. Then i misread what you said, But there has been no "big leagues" other then where i mentioned and significant ones have been far and few, One in Nov, Two in Jan and on in Feb here, And a bunch of nickels and dimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 6-12" will always be moderate in my book. 12"+ is the big leagues. You would have hated the 1980s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: You would have hated the 1980s I loved the 80's, Just not for winter weather........... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 26 minutes ago, dryslot said: Then i misread what you said, But there has been no "big leagues" other then where i mentioned and significant ones have been far and few, One in Nov, Two in Jan and on in Feb here, And a bunch of nickels and dimes. Really? You have 70" of snow on the year with "nickle and dime" events while us southern NE coasties have been teased and tortured all year. I would normally prefer a big dog too but in a year like this one I'll take whatever I can get 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Really? You have 70" of snow on the year with "nickle and dime" events while us southern NE coasties have been teased and tortured all year. I would normally prefer a big dog too but in a year like this one I'll take whatever I can get What did he say that was wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If you want to do this, at least quote me correctly. I said 12"+ is "big leagues".....not significant. 6" of snow is certainly significant....moderate is significant. I've always termed snowfall in my AFDs as light (1-3), moderate (3-6), and heavy/significant (6+). I agree once we hit 12+ I start pulling out words like major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What did he say that was wrong? I mean we really haven't had a closed mid level low pass SE of us this season, so it's hard to not call it nickel and dime. Not quite the same story for the mountains and CAR. The closest we came was 1/20, but that was a terrible forecast regionally and ended up well below forecast amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 38 minutes ago, dryslot said: Then i misread what you said, But there has been no "big leagues" other then where i mentioned and significant ones have been far and few, One in Nov, Two in Jan and on in Feb here, And a bunch of nickels and dimes. I'll second the nickels and dimes. Despite my total being way ahead, and just tenths shy of equaling my full-season average, I've had the same number of 6"+ events as you - the only difference is that I had 2 in November and 1 in January. And the 1980s were great for the half-decade in Fort Kent, with the latter half in Gardiner having its moments, mainly in 1987. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, tamarack said: I'll second the nickels and dimes. Despite my total being way ahead, and just tenths shy of equaling my full-season average, I've had the same number of 6"+ events as you - the only difference is that I had 2 in November and 1 in January. And the 1980s were great for the half-decade in Fort Kent, with the latter half in Gardiner having its moments, mainly in 1987. Any recollection as to what you got in April 1987? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What did he say that was wrong? Nothing really. At first it came off as little bit of complaining about not getting a BIG coastal this year while still having a good count this year. I wasn't trying to be rude either, just my type of conversation that probably translates better in person than in typing. My apologies. That's what climo does for you sometimes. Good numbers in an overall bad year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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