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March Disco


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Things get dicey at the end of these runs ... the foreign ones.  The Americans in the D7 to 12 range are interesting as well.

What I'm seeing is a relaxed flow like we've pretty much never seen modeled since late October of 2018, yet, plenty of cold air around.  Not just hints, either... Like, lose the -20 C and lower mass in Canada and lose the -3 TO -4 SD SPV's and we're in business.

Note, winter enthusiasts don't need -20 to -30 C plumes spread out over southern Canada to cash in on winter weather.  This winter has beat you over the head with why. That -3 to -12 tapestry we see out there in those time frames, when mixed up with close-able impulses ... that all changes the storm styling/complexions from low QPF powdered snow/tortured light ice and dry sleeters, to more of the blue bomb aggregate types.  'Course that's getting the storms to happen.. but, we're setting the craps table here with our fire-bets.

I'm liking the loss of the EPO ridging with the rise in PNA ... At least for a time while we use up the cold left in the wake. That could signal less gradient/velocity saturation, and not having to deal with shrinking corridor impacts and needle threading headaches. 

The Euro has an unlikely 2-day ice storm suggested ... but all the models have the flow at 500 mb twisting about with -5 to -10 C 850s lurking above spring thicknesses in the TV back over TX ...

One thing we gotta keep in mind, however, is that the sun increasing so rapidly does play havoc on outlooks as it can add diabatically and cause these "looks" to suddenly modulate - ...

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Things get dicey at the end of these runs ... the foreign ones.  The Americans in the D7 to 12 range are interesting as well.

What I'm seeing is a relaxed flow like we've pretty much never seen modeled since late October of 2018, yet, plenty of cold air around.  Not just hints, either... Like, lose the -20 C and lower mass in Canada and lose the -3 TO -4 SD SPV's and we're in business.

Note, winter enthusiasts don't need -20 to -30 C plumes spread out over southern Canada to cash in on winter weather.  This winter has beat you over the head with why. That -3 to -12 tapestry we see out there in those time frames, when mixed up with close-able impulses ... that all changes the storm styling/complexions from low QPF powdered snow/tortured light ice and dry sleeters, to more of the blue bomb aggregate types.  'Course that's getting the storms to happen.. but, we're setting the craps table here with our fire-bets.

I'm liking the loss of the EPO ridging with the rise in PNA ... At least for a time while we use up the cold left in the wake. That could signal less gradient/velocity saturation, and not having to deal with shrinking corridor impacts and needle threading headaches. 

The Euro has an unlikely 2-day ice storm suggested ... but all the models have the flow at 500 mb twisting about with -5 to -10 C 850s lurking above spring thicknesses in the TV back over TX ...

One thing we gotta keep in mind, however, is that the sun increasing so rapidly does play havoc on outlooks as it can add diabatically and cause these "looks" to suddenly modulate - ...

Yeah the long range actually looks dare I say,  like an El Nino. Aleutian low and PNA ridge with warm anomalies across Canada. That can still work for snow in the NE in mid-march.  

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6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah the long range actually looks dare I say,  like an El Nino. Aleutian low and PNA ridge with warm anomalies across Canada. That can still work for snow in the NE in mid-march.  

Ha ha... I know .. .like, is this thing ever going to show up already... .

But yeah, NCEP's recent publications on the matter, they're indicated that at long last, ... the atmosphere over the Pacific Basin is finally showing signs of coupling with the SST distribution (via convection/OLR distribution and so forth) so,, agreed... there might just be a PNA response here... 

Wonder if a bigger actual slow mover can Archembault it's way onto the charts over the next week. 

Don't look now ... ladies and gentlemen, maybe a fun exit to this tortured mess.  ... Well, tortured S of Glenn's Falls to PWM - not sure anyone up there has room to really complain.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha... I know .. .like, is this thing ever going to show up already... .

But yeah, NCEP's recent publications on the matter, they're indicated that at long last, ... the atmosphere over the Pacific Basin is finally showing signs of coupling with the SST distribution (via convection/OLR distribution and so forth) so,, agreed... there might just be a PNA response here... 

Wonder if a bigger actual slow mover can Archembault it's way onto the charts over the next week. 

Don't look now ... ladies and gentlemen, maybe a fun exit to this tortured mess.  ... Well, tortured S of Glenn's Falls to PWM - not sure anyone up there has room to really complain.

Wouldn't that be nice.

Would like a nice cold airmass to go along with it instead of some rotting one so at least the non-southcoast coastal folks around here don't get stuck with slop, poor ratios that have trouble sticking. Obviously it gets a lot harder to do the longer we go into March.

The global's have been seeing the threats long-term though. The GFS has had this upcoming storm consistently since when, last Monday? It's just when we get closer in, with many other models thrown into the mix, we can't seem to get a proper consensus with even a 1 day leadtime

Hope you're right!

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

People leave Tennessee ... why the hell you movin there 

Never in a million years did i ever give one thought to living in a place with horrid humidity...but the company i worked for on Cape Cod, owns a park in Nashville. Life throws curveballs...but cheers to new adventures

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32 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I know a few folks who live right around Nashville and it sounds like a nice place with lots to do.  Just a few miles in any direction it is pretty Appalachia though.  

It’s one of the fastest growing cities in the country. 

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