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March Disco


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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I get the frustration, but the EURO definitely carries weight.  It's 5 days out... I think the pattern is different than it has been and a low coming out of the south could go just about anywhere. 

I bet the EPS are much further SE and will look pretty good for SNE.

There should be zero frustration. It’s an op run by itself 5 days out . It’s got no support and it’s a known bias . It’s tossed , as is any huge model showing a foot 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If the youngsters don’t know how the 80s winters felt and looked like....well, you’re living in it now.

THe only difference is they didn't follow the model carnage on their smartphones and instead we had to wait for the occasional 6-12" forecast get pulled out from under us at the last second. 

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I get the frustration, but the EURO definitely carries weight.  It's 5 days out... I think the pattern is different than it has been and a low coming out of the south could go just about anywhere. 

I bet the EPS are much further SE and will look pretty good for SNE.

I would be surprised if we don't see Saturday evolve for the better.

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

See I think the pattern has changed.  It's not a storm with mid-levels way west... I definitely get why it sucks to see but I don't see why this couldn't stay south and more progressive.  The EURO is much different than the GFS/GGEM/ICON/FV3 with that.

Though I will say that Euro snow map has panned out almost exactly like that a couple times so far this season, but it doesn't seem like the same pattern we were in.

Agree entirely... I was about to post the same thing 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

THe only difference is they didn't follow the model carnage on their smartphones and instead we had to wait for the occasional 6-12" forecast get pulled out from under us at the last second. 

I haven't had one of those since November.

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s uncanny how one over amped Euro op run obviously wrong just sets the melts in motion. Scooter starts it and his emotional posts set the others falling like dominoes 

The other models are trending towards it and the Euro track fits the theme this season but I do think it's best to wait 2 cycles.

A few days ago there was supposed to be a big cutter on Saturday and that won't happen.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

THe only difference is they didn't follow the model carnage on their smartphones and instead we had to wait for the occasional 6-12" forecast get pulled out from under us at the last second. 

True, and I’m not sure what is worse. It stings less nowadays, so probably the young elementary school weenie in the 80s?

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

On the bright side, Scooter melted...usually we get a pretty good model cycle within a couple runs of a Scooter melt. 

Saturday will probably come in more amped next run or three and then Monday will be in the sweet spot. :lol:

He gets so emotional. After saying he was all done with winter a month ago. Can’t handle the emotions 

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No actually the opposite. If Monday didn't clear the baroclinic zone well offshore, we d have a legit threat on mar 6-7. Pretty good shortwave diving into lakes at day 6 but there's no thermal gradient to work with so prob just some flurries. 


Exactly why I’ve been rooting for Mar 6-7 all along, and against anything in the days before. H5 gets tee’d up, but Mar 3-4 screws it.

Still lots of flux and time to improve, untended hose like Tip said.
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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

On the bright side, Scooter melted...usually we get a pretty good model cycle within a couple runs of a Scooter melt. 

Saturday will probably come in more amped next run or three and then Monday will be in the sweet spot. :lol:

Ha I was thinking it could be fun to bump if/when 18" falls in the next 7 days or something.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

On the bright side, Scooter melted...usually we get a pretty good model cycle within a couple runs of a Scooter melt. 

Saturday will probably come in more amped next run or three and then Monday will be in the sweet spot. :lol:

A couple of Kraft snow jobs and then when you want the whole package and tired of the rub and tugs, the FBI raids the model parlor.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

True, and I’m not sure what is worse. It stings less nowadays, so probably the young elementary school weenie in the 80s?

Some the the worst ones were the light to moderate snows not panning out...at least when the big ones started to fall apart, there would be some warning signs like the Mets pushing back the start time or "trimming" amounts slightly....but sometimes we'd get those 2-4/3-6 forecasts and you'd wake up and see brown grass through your still-half blurred vision and hear cars splashing through a puddle...or you'd wake up and see the disk of the sun through the clouds and nothing on the ground and then go wait for the school bus in frigid conditions. 

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No actually the opposite. If Monday didn't clear the baroclinic zone well offshore, we d have a legit threat on mar 6-7. Pretty good shortwave diving into lakes at day 6 but there's no thermal gradient to work with so prob just some flurries. 

Gotcha. It's early but I've been tracking the pattern past the 6-7 threat pretty closely. Travel coming up that weekend. 

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3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

 


Exactly why I’ve been rooting for Mar 6-7 all along, and against anything in the days before. H5 gets tee’d up, but Mar 3-4 screws it.

Still lots of flux and time to improve, untended hose like Tip said.

 

Yeah. You can see it even better this run. Nice energy rounding the base well south of the lakes shortwave at 144. That's a powderkeg if we had the baroclinic zone closer to shore. Definite big dog look...but Monday pushes the thermal gradient too far offshore. 

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Meh... you guys are being nervy neurotic about mere nutations in outlook that still some five days away...   That 850 mb still gets mostly snow for western sections... well within margin for errors. 

Good luck getting perfection at D5 let alone, having that be successful anyway. 

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