USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Yeah nothing for the weekend yet. Oh and Scott N."s favorite guidance shows SE MA and Cape getting 4-6" with a max around 8-10" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Don’t those maps include tonight? Yes. Shave 2" off or so but the end result is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: EPS shows the real deal though. There's a huge difference between this EPS snow map and any other this season...namely there's a northern drop off. Every other EPS run all season increased snowfall well into Canada as you go north as so much energy has been lifting well NW of us. This one is a more coastal look than anything we've seen this season, as there's no southern Canada snow from some Great Lakes primary: I like that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like that look. What a disaster for us SW CT folks. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 6z eps was pretty decent Saturday and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: What a disaster for us SW CT folks. Ugh. We can watch from the nosebleeds like we have been. Better seats next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 06z EPS is gung ho for Monday. So much in fact that it's giving ptype issues to SE areas...but given they are kind of the NW outlier at the moment, it's not the worst thing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 6z eps was pretty decent Saturday and Monday. Saturday is starting to look pretty decent. Could be a bit of a paste bomb too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 06z EPS is gung ho for Monday. So much in fact that it's giving ptype issues to SE areas...but given they are kind of the NW outlier at the moment, it's not the worst thing How would the winds be with this storm. That’s a really nice look. Any chance we get a blizzard out of this or is it more of a low forming off a frontal passage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We can watch from the nosebleeds like we have been. Better seats next season. Even the EPS just posted by ORH would be mix for us. Its a actually amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, WEATHERMINATOR said: How would the winds be with this storm. That’s a really nice look. Any chance we get a blizzard out of this or is it more of a low forming off a frontal passage? That's every 2mb on those maps that have isobars so it looks windier than it would be versus the standard 4mb increments. If we can get it to bomb out then it's possible but I wouldn't expect massive winds right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Saturday is starting to look pretty decent. Could be a bit of a paste bomb too. Please make one of these give all snow to CT. Please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z EPS is gung ho for Monday. So much in fact that it's giving ptype issues to SE areas...but given they are kind of the NW outlier at the moment, it's not the worst thing Very clear from looking at fuzzy clustering that the EPS members overwhelmingly the ones supporting a low tucked closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 The concept of the 'unmanned fire hose' is being hinted among the guidance, ...some more so than others.. The GFS is really flopping around from run to run in its middle range, placing features up or down in latitude by some 500 to as much as 1000 km of variance from what I'm seeing. Its done this since last November (really) .. but it appears enhanced as a behavior over the last 10 cycles or so. Ultimately rattling its longer term shaky confidence even more. As an aside ... both the 00z and 06z GFS operational runs hint at interesting events when just observing the synoptic evolution at 500 mb. But the surface solutions that go along with are horrible ... I wonder if its notoriously egregious ongoing consummate error in planetary boundary layer thermodynamics, ultimately related fluid mechanics, ... are causing lows to bias too far on the polar side of cyclonic surface arcs. That's speculative... but whatever the cause, it's so bad that the Government really should be sued. There's also a tendency for them to "cover-up" what I feel was a bad release - I think its possible that someone f-ed up and integrated bad BL subroutines in there and this has been a cover-up the whole way ...but I like that kind of conspiracy shit. Ha. Seriously, this model just can't wait to get lows polarward at least excuse imaginable in mid and extended ranges, and given a little more realistic boundary layer resistance in the form of actual cold air ( ... holy shit! imagine - ), some of those wave translations overall might be more interesting. Yet ... that's if they even exist! If all that error wrangle were not enough, it's got mechanics in there that the other models don't even have. Oy - The Euro is bit more stable, but it seems to be almost as inconsistent not so much for "where" ... but "what" to track. Its dropped some wave spaces/identifiable features in lieu of (maybe) better coherency to focus upon... If one did not know any better, they could almost see the model's correction scheme causing that, by desperately ablating the "noise" in while processing ... running out there into chaos and trying to substantiate others. Kinda cool actually... Namely, it seems to be most stable with the March 6-9 period of time. It's got some of these other minoring ordeals too... despite all that. Through all these.. regardless of model, it's pretty clear to me that they all suffer to some degree by the fact that we have a strong -EPO structure (observed and empirically measured), yet heights from Baja California to S of Bermuda still think it's September 2018. The end result is a scream fast wind flow that is making it a hostile environment for individual S/W to operate on the flow and do much. It's the main reason why the Euro's biggest event in that 10 days of its run is a big fat broad open wave rocketing a -12 to -18 mb/hr deepener from DCA to NF in 20 minutes! The EPS is all over that though... but it too has more of the open wave variety ...owing to much of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Can you post a chart for CT peeps Steve? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Probably not unsurprisingly those members that keep it close to the coast also keep the mid level baroclinic zone closer to the coast, and have more ridging at 500 mb to our east. Maybe more interestingly is that those members also have weaker/further SE systems for the weekend (maybe because a stronger system would drive the baroclinic zone farther SE as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Saturday is starting to look pretty decent. Could be a bit of a paste bomb too. Let’s paste her up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We can watch from the nosebleeds like we have been. Better seats next season. I was just looking at Maue's seasonal snowfall analysis for this season, man it is sad around here....The seasonal number's map for the southern half of CT looks like a snowfall forecast for typical big storm over the past 10 years...perspective/regression I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z eps was pretty decent Saturday and Monday. For who, if you don't mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 23 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: For who, if you don't mind? You would like it, .25"+ Saturday, .50"+ Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 That’s a lot of snow for areas around Boston on the eps for the 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: You would like it, .25"+ Saturday, .50"+ Monday Thanks for the info Jeff. Was kinda hoping Saturday was the bigger one though. Gotta fly outta Logan to NYC on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Thanks for the info Jeff. Was kinda hoping Saturday was the bigger one though. Gotta fly outta Logan to NYC on Monday. I'm leaning to the Monday one will be the better of the two up here, That could change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm leaning to the Monday one will be the better of the two up here, That could change though. Sooo 4" Saturday, 6" Monday for you guys. It snows where it wants to snow I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: Sooo 4" Saturday, 6" Monday for you guys. It snows where it wants to snow I guess. It's not bad for us either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, Whineminster said: Sooo 4" Saturday, 6" Monday for you guys. It snows where it wants to snow I guess. Its possible, Still a few days out so there could be changes either way, I don't think we would see two large events, Going to depend on what happens with the first one to where the second one ends up anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It's not bad for us either No its not, It looked about the same, You and Whineminster would be fine just based on the 06z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 23 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its possible, Still a few days out so there could be changes either way, I don't think we would see two large events, Going to depend on what happens with the first one to where the second one ends up anyways. any chance we whiff on both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, Lava Rock said: any chance we whiff on both? Doubtful at this point, That would be some terrible luck if that happened..........lol, Pattern does not support that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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