A Moonlit Sky Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t mind explaining. Thank you. This is important for those of us learning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Pretty soon we can start looking forward to (well we should be already) severe weather season. I am just beyond pump for this summer. With only working until 3 I can do a ton of chasing..plus with getting a week off at some point soon when benefits kick in. Going to choose the first week of June and that's when my friend from NH will come down and we can go anywhere in the Northeast. Not missing anything big this year!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Pretty soon we can start looking forward to (well we should be already) severe weather season. I am just beyond pump for this summer. With only working until 3 I can do a ton of chasing..plus with getting a week off at some point soon when benefits kick in. Going to choose the first week of June and that's when my friend from NH will come down and we can go anywhere in the Northeast. Not missing anything big this year!!!! No Plains trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: No Plains trip? nahhh. Hopefully in the next few years (though I've been saying this for like 20 years ) While I would really love to do it the money I would have to save up to spend on an entire trip (guess I could use tax return money) would be much more beneficial to paying bills. My goal is to perhaps buy a condo or at least maybe rent in a few years but I would have to get a few big expenses paid off first and the amount of money needed for a trip of that magnitude would put a major chunk in those debts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Pretty soon we can start looking forward to (well we should be already) severe weather season. I am just beyond pump for this summer. With only working until 3 I can do a ton of chasing..plus with getting a week off at some point soon when benefits kick in. Going to choose the first week of June and that's when my friend from NH will come down and we can go anywhere in the Northeast. Not missing anything big this year!!!! Are you pumped because you can chase or because you think we'll have an actual thunderstorm this summer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Did I say that? By turning it in early I thought that’s what you meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Pretty soon we can start looking forward to (well we should be already) severe weather season. I am just beyond pump for this summer. With only working until 3 I can do a ton of chasing..plus with getting a week off at some point soon when benefits kick in. Going to choose the first week of June and that's when my friend from NH will come down and we can go anywhere in the Northeast. Not missing anything big this year!!!! Companies are still starting with one week of vacation? I thought 2 was the standard these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 I'd still add a couple of ticks to any "cold" looking thickness air masses painted across any mid and extended range - ... Marginal scenarios that are outside of dynamic core events will normalize warmer than what even the EPS and Euro cow-tied allegiance says on a given cycle... While cold scenarios may even end up moderated almost to marginal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 52 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Pretty soon we can start looking forward to (well we should be already) severe weather season. I am just beyond pump for this summer. With only working until 3 I can do a ton of chasing..plus with getting a week off at some point soon when benefits kick in. Going to choose the first week of June and that's when my friend from NH will come down and we can go anywhere in the Northeast. Not missing anything big this year!!!! Chase season 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Bring on the “see text” I say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 I just wanna get this 'farmer's gold' watering session out of the way so we can settle into Sunday's first "faux" top 10 day... I say faux because it technically would fall short of public vote .. .but would certainly get a nod at [probably ] 63 F Davis' backyard patio afternoons and early evenings... Full sun and not too inordinately breezy in that look, with +2 C over katabatic flow ... That's a DSD day. Won't be 73 ... which would qualify it more "in"formally for the 10 list, but it's an honorable mention - Again, if we somehow buck technology and end up plaster of Paris'ing out of this junket over the next two days ...that might interfere with that later prized day plan, huh. I think I see what happened with this nearer term system though... It's kind of interesting... But what's gone on is an insidious (under notice...) S/W interference (destructive) albeit subtle ...but enough to f! up what would probably have otherwise been better for winter enthusiasts. That... and, the modulating influence of the sun, which can and does, and in this case ... did, modify this rotted air mass at an accelerated rate. Can't really sustain three solid days of > 80% sun nearing the Equinox and expect a marginal air mass to hold onto that "marginality" for very long... Between the former interference, and the latter air mass we were left with ... meh.. Anyway, the Lakes S/W that was pretty well advertised/discussed by many did actually come down and phase with the intermediate (which we called southern stream by virtue of being south of the Lakes impulse, alone...) S/W...but that could not maximize because of two reasons: One, a third S/W which is modeled presently to careen into the party ... began transitively imposing negative wave interference/and is now... The phased result of the former two was being held up by this third component. Which might not matter so much, if it catches up in time, ... but is not and with that lack of deepening it caused with the lead two...we end up with a pallid surface low and weaker dymamics. So, this third S/W does the more important subsuming that we thought would result from the earlier saga. It's like a triple ally-'oop. I also thing the rotted nature of the air mass has all but obliterated the llv gradients that play into the physics and can deepen thing further (complex...), sooner. I see this a verification of the +PNA "threat" assessing from 10 or so days ago... but just not the complexion of events that was wanted by most... So far... we'll see if this thing surprises.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: nahhh. Hopefully in the next few years (though I've been saying this for like 20 years ) While I would really love to do it the money I would have to save up to spend on an entire trip (guess I could use tax return money) would be much more beneficial to paying bills. My goal is to perhaps buy a condo or at least maybe rent in a few years but I would have to get a few big expenses paid off first and the amount of money needed for a trip of that magnitude would put a major chunk in those debts. Very responsible of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 We frumpa on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: We frumpa on the GFS Yup...another wasted opportunity...this has been the theme of this winter. Too bad, cuz the airmass is a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Minenfeld! said: Are you pumped because you can chase or because you think we'll have an actual thunderstorm this summer? It's all about expectations. For some odd reason everyone here thinks every time convection is mentioned or threads regarding convection are started it means widespread convection or widespread severe. There are typically pretty solid thunderstorms around every summer...just not as widespread as what happens out west. 1 hour ago, Cold Miser said: Companies are still starting with one week of vacation? I thought 2 was the standard these days. Every year with the company you get an additional week added on. 49 minutes ago, dendrite said: Chase season 2019 11 minutes ago, Hoth said: Very responsible of you. Once all big expenses are paid off it will be much easier to go and do fun things and not have to worry about missing work or taking time off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Fv3 grazes. Still worth watching 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Fv3 grazes. Still worth watching 5 days out. But it's trending the wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Also could be that mid range thing where the models many times seem to start losing systems...and then a couple days from now, start to bring them back??? Just saying....we've seen that this year, and many other years as well. Or the Suppression is Real...would fit the tenor of the season for sure. At this point for me...if it's not significant/substantial...just let it be mild(60 degrees and the sun out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: At this point for me...if it's not significant/substantial...just let it be mild(60 degrees and the sun out). For me at this point I just let the weather be. No reason to rush Spring. If it snows, it snows. If it rains, it rains. If it's sunny and 60, then that's what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 The weather doesn't have feelings so it really doesn't matter what you want. We will get our weeks of drizzle and fog and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 54 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: But it's trending the wrong way I thought the trend minimized at 12z. GEFS were decent too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: The weather doesn't have feelings so it really doesn't matter what you want. We will get our weeks of drizzle and fog and like it. The weather evokes feelings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 haha... I love watching people eat April fecal matter - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 mm I don't trust that latter mid range warm-up at all ... Man that could too easily ...probably will, end up with either a BD in the area the whole way or just an ablated ridge top with a front aligned from Indy to TTN in general 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Sort of close but no cigar on the Euro. Certainly close enough to still not rule anything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Sort of close but no cigar on the Euro. Certainly close enough to still not rule anything out. in deference to what ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 That gradient in S Canada keeps getting worse on the Euro...need that to break out a little lobe of vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That gradient in S Canada keeps getting worse on the Euro...need that to break out a little lobe of vorticity. Yeah,. that was my main reasoning for poo-pooing this potential threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: in deference to what ... Looked like there was a bit more room to get something to work up the coast. But Will kind explained it better with the quoted below. 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That gradient in S Canada keeps getting worse on the Euro...need that to break out a little lobe of vorticity. Is that high pressure building in hurting things too? Seems like that it is like creating a wall and preventing more from happening along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Yeah euro was squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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