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March Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is still tracklable over interior elevations in SNE for a few inches. Still leaning on the skeptical side but can't toss the possibility. That's a pretty sick ULL that goes under us. If it can even just suck a small portion of the trowal back south or southwest then that's how it would happen. 

I'm really sort of mesmerized by the 528 dm height surface being approached over the region with wind-swept rain that the models are insisting happens at that same time... 

That's a rare combination of concurrent parametrics if that takes place - there's a reason 540 starts stressing the physics and you know there is at least snow off the deck at that height ... it has to do with saturation vapor pressure and phase states of condensing water in free air.   But plumb that to < 534 dm ...you start getting into some rareness of systemic circumstance to maintain pure liquid at those column limitations.   

The thing is ... (and I'm not trying to sell a cryo solution ..) you can certainly do that with a warm layer below the snow growth region of the ambient sounding... buuut, in a coastal low cyclonic structure, you tend to uniform the vertical thermal layout as things get focused...  Hence, "isothermal" sounding in spring snow... all the way to 800 mb in some cases.  So, where is the warm air to keep this all rain with heights imploding through 530s and  ...stalling the vertical structure as capture takes place (even in the Euro!) right over Cape Cod Bay, deepening yet further ... ? 

rain... 

It seems this is bullshit or a rare circumstance about to take place.   interesting... 

But, I am reminded of a Nor'easter just last March 2-3rd (2018) ...where faced with circumstantially similar falling heights and we wound up well-modeled butt boned cat pawing for 9 straight hours when we had a lot of collective doubt that it would stay just rain ... so.  The difference there was the heights were about 10 to 12 dm higher than this will be ..which gives one pause. 

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I know off topic here..but since we are in Daylight savings time, is the Zulu time 5 hours ahead(0z is really 7 pm), or was it 5 hours ahead when we were in Standard Time?  I always get that mixed up??

 

TIA for the clarification.

4 hours in DST.  It’s why the euro is out too late for most to stay up for at least during the week.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm really sort of mesmerized by the 528 dm height surface being approached over the region with wind-swept rain that the models are insisting... 

That's a rare combination of concurrent parametrics if that takes place - there's a resent 540 starts stressing the physics and you know there is at least snow off the deck at that height ... it has to do with saturation vapor pressure and phase states of condensing water in free air.   But plumb that to < 534 dm ...you start getting into some rareness of systemic circumstance to maintain pure liquid at those column limitations.   

The thing is ... (and I'm not trying to sell a cryo solution ..) you can certainly do that with a warm layer below the snow growth region of the ambient sounding... buuut, in a coastal low cyclonic structure, you tend to uniform the vertical thermal layout as things get focused...  Hence, "isothermal" sounding in spring snow... all the way to 800 mb in some cases.  So, where is the warm air to keep this all rain with heights imploding through 530s and  ...stalling the vertical structure as capture takes place (even in the Euro!) right over Cape Cod Bay, deepenign yet further ... 

rain... 

It seems this is bullshit or a rare circumstance about to take place.   interesting... 

But, I am reminded of a Nor'easter just last March 7th (2018) ...where faced with similar falling heights and we wound up well modeled butt boned cat paws for 9 straight hours and it seems outre then too.  The difference there was the heights were about 10 to 12 dm higher than this will be ..which gives one pause. 

If any season can pull it off, its the 2019 cosmic dildo :lol:

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If any season can pull it off, its the 2019 cosmic dildo :lol:

haha...  Yeah 's'pose there's that too - 

I wouldn't be shocked if mid way through this thing at 36.7 F 1K elevation Worcester AP goes to 'chutes Ahead of guidance  - ... almost to the point of feeling confident. 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha...  Yeah 's'pose there's that too - 

I wouldn't be shocked if mid way through this thing at 36.7 F 1K elevation Worcester AP goes to 'chutes Ahead of guidance  - ... almost to the point of feeling confident. 

Yea, probably not with much consequence, though.

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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS still look interesting for next week...06z only goes out to 144, but it's tickling north from 00z.

 

 

Mar20_06zEPS144.png

The H5 look isn't very bad looking at all...it screams phase potential and it's just a matter of whether or not that will happen....well it will happen it's just does it give us goods or does it happen too far east. Regardless...there should be an impressive cold shot to start off April. 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Only a super :weenie: would hope for cold and snow just to have an minuscule increase in severe....which probably has zero correlation to begin with.

There could be a correlation...not directly with cold/snow but rather the atmospheric pattern configuration heading into April and the transition with the wavelengths and pattern towards summer.

The premise would be an increased thermal gradient would keep the jet stream strong and keep colder/drier air aloft nearby. The evolution of the pattern too could be something enhancing the potential for EML advection into the Northeast. 

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Early Napril looks very mild. There’s no cold shot . After the beast snows next week, it quickly warms up for good 

I don't think this "very mild" idea to start April is how I would play it right now....there's definitely still cross polar flow into Canada aimed at SE Canada and our region.

 

 

 

 

Mar20_00zEPS288.png

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think this "very mild" idea to start April is how I would play it right now....there's definitely still cross polar flow into Canada aimed at SE Canada and our region.

 

 

 

 

Mar20_00zEPS288.png

I could see some brief periods of milder air moving into our area but I think the overall theme will be average to slightly below average...maybe even a bit more than slightly b/c I don't think the warm periods will be overly warm. The look too also supports storm tracks either over us or slightly east so it's not like there is much room to really pump up heights across our area. 

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18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There could be a correlation...not directly with cold/snow but rather the atmospheric pattern configuration heading into April and the transition with the wavelengths and pattern towards summer.

The premise would be an increased thermal gradient would keep the jet stream strong and keep colder/drier air aloft nearby. The evolution of the pattern too could be something enhancing the potential for EML advection into the Northeast. 

So the cold snowy April aided the May EF1 in wct?

 

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Whatever happened last year flipped a switch from the multi-year drought to Seattle like weather with no end in sight, especially if the WAR develops again this summer...I had rainfall rates last week approaching 10"/hr on my Davis and flooded the streets like a mid July storm in Florida...The Gulf Stream is already warmer than average so any SE coastal spinups are going to lead to an early/active homegrown tropical season I would assume...

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6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Whatever happened last year flipped a switch from the multi-year drought to Seattle like weather with no end in sight, especially if the WAR develops again this summer...I had rainfall rates last week approaching 10"/hr on my Davis and flooded the streets like a mid July storm in Florida...The Gulf Stream is already warmer than average so any SE coastal spinups are going to lead to an early/active homegrown tropical season I would assume...

Dr Dew coming attractions coming to stay in theatres near you soon 

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