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March Disco


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This is still tracklable over interior elevations in SNE for a few inches. Still leaning on the skeptical side but can't toss the possibility. That's a pretty sick ULL that goes under us. If it can even just suck a small portion of the trowal back south or southwest then that's how it would happen. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This is still tracklable over interior elevations in SNE for a few inches. Still leaning on the skeptical side but can't toss the possibility. That's a pretty sick ULL that goes under us. If it can even just suck a small portion of the trowal back south or southwest then that's how it would happen. 

This would be mainly overnight Friday right?

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This would be mainly overnight Friday right?

Yeah probably. There's a small chance of this ends up a little further south that some central/western areas with elevation could flip on Friday midday/afternoon but it seems more likely that evening/overnight is when the best shot is with the much lower heights and maybe some leftover moisture that reignites a little with the potent vortmax going just under us. It still needs a lot of variables to go right, but I typically don't completely toss the idea when we have a ULL that strong going just under our latitude. If it ends up further north then we most likely wouldn't get anything. 

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie has a suspicious conv low that is well east of a lot of guidance, Seems worthy of a toss.

Rgem most pronounced with it but other meso guidance showing this as well - HRDRPS, WRF, 3k NAM. Physically, it does at least make sense to see best surface pressure falls further east along the Gulf Stream, given the lack of baroclinicity associated with the southern stream shortwave....I’m split if we’re looking at some kind of weak subtropical system off the Carolinas or a weak synoptic wave as most global models show...

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Just now, jbenedet said:

Rgem most pronounced with it but other meso guidance showing this as well - HRDRPS, WRF, 3k NAM. Physically, it does at least make sense to see best surface pressure falls further east along the Gulf Stream, given the lack of baroclinicity associated with the southern stream shortwave....I’m split if we’re looking at some kind of weak subtropical system off the Carolinas or a weak synoptic wave as most global models show...

3Km NAM is well east. Given the ULL support, I suspect the mesos are a little too happy with putting LP more with diabatic heating. I'm sure a weak low may be present, but not the Cat 2 the RGEM has. Something like the euro makes sense to me anyways. Overall this looks rather mundane for most except for the high spots and that's if we get a good wrap around fetch going. 

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5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Too bad people only live in 20% of the NE landmass.

Oh how much you've changed with one move...in with the masses ;).  Watch Old Pit get 8" of elevation cement now.  Two months ago you'd wonder why BOX isn't mentioning the east slopes in their discussion ha.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We go from a couple inches of snow Friday night to 65 on Sunday, to an April 82 kind of storm early next week to warm and dry Napril. I think we’d all sign up for this 

Lmao, April 82??  Dude you are such a wish-caster...April of 82 was a historic Snowstorm for SNE.  So you're going with a Historic Storm for next week at this point lol???    I know I know...it's all about spooning up the pot for you.  All the best with the April 82 idea James...lol.

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lmao, April 82??  Dude you are such a wish-caster...April of 82 was a historic Snowstorm for SNE.  So you're going with a Historic Storm for next week at this point lol???    I know I know...it's all about spooning up the pot for you.  All the best with the April 82 idea...lol.

He went fishing and you swallowed the hook...lol.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

He went fishing and you swallowed the hook...lol.

NO I didn't Jerry..I didn't swallow his hook, I grabbed the fishing pole and pulled him in the water with it.   I love to call him out on Stupid crap like that...

 

If you notice, I said its all about Stirring the pot for him.  So I realized his ridiculous statement.  Just needed to call him out on it.  

 

Like I said...All the best with that dumb idea. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He doesn’t even need to attach bait anymore. Just sling the bare line out there and some just frantically swim towards it.

No one is frantically swimming toward anything....that dumb Sh*t needs to be called out when it is thrown out there.  Not happening James...

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He doesn’t even need to attach bait anymore. Just sling the bare line out there and some just frantically swim towards it.

For some reason he loses control of his body when it comes to my posts. Some type of higher power takes over his arms and fingers and he just starts screaming and yelling and banging out scolding and hysterical posts. 

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Anyways, maybe we can get one of those bands that sneaks in to drop some heavier SHSN into central and ern MA later Friday night into Saturday. Sometimes they are localized, but the deep fetch of RH through and above H7 curving into SNE may do it. I wouldn't expect much in lower spots, but maybe a narrow area whitens up in the low lands. Maybe wrn slopes of ORH hills near Hubby does decent?

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Anyways, maybe we can get one of those bands that sneaks in to drop some heavier SHSN into central and ern MA later Friday night into Saturday. Sometimes they are localized, but the deep fetch of RH through and above H7 curving into SNE may do it. I wouldn't expect much in lower spots, but maybe a narrow area whitens up in the low lands. Maybe wrn slopes of ORH hills near Hubby does decent?

This drops accumulating snow into all hilly elevations of SNE. It’s not just an AEMATT event

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Anyways, maybe we can get one of those bands that sneaks in to drop some heavier SHSN into central and ern MA later Friday night into Saturday. Sometimes they are localized, but the deep fetch of RH through and above H7 curving into SNE may do it. I wouldn't expect much in lower spots, but maybe a narrow area whitens up in the low lands. Maybe wrn slopes of ORH hills near Hubby does decent?

Honestly even up here I'm not sold on anything over Advisory criteria where folks live.  I think this will have a very sharp gradient in the 1,000-2,000ft range.  I could see hours and hours of 33-34F white rain or wet snow under 1,000ft...while it piles up  at the ski areas.  

Theres no real CAA as it's just rotating cyclonic maritime air into the area.  Something where I've got 3" of paste at home but drive up the road to work and find 10" in the parking lots.

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