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March Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would def find more interest in it if I was skiing a lot this year....but I haven't been.

But yeah, I'm def not sacrificing a shot at a paste job so that the snow depth can go from 110 inches to 125 inches on a mountain 3-4 hours away from me. In the end, we're prob not getting much anyway down here...you'll get at least big upslope.

Hey man I wouldn't either.  Even for the skiers the season is mostly done for many so it isn't like snowfall ahead of a vacation period.  The E.SNE relationship with NW NE is a torn one...someone gets snow the other usually doesn't.  I think that's why often you can root for snow in the ME mountains, or even Whites, because climo wise both ESNE and those areas can get big snows...but move it to VT and it's a different climate path to glory.

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

20 minutes or so and we'll see if these slower stronger trends are legit with the Euro's depiction coming up next.

I’d say

1. They are 

2. And we still won’t see a snow bomb 

maybe euro has perfect track and early intensify like a 978 just S of montauk w a stall over ACK

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’d say

1. They are 

2. And we still won’t see a snow bomb 

maybe euro has perfect track and early intensify like a 978 just S of montauk w a stall over ACK

We need the southern stream to dig and take its time for SNE to have any shot.

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’d say

1. They are 

2. And we still won’t see a snow bomb 

maybe euro has perfect track and early intensify like a 978 just S of montauk w a stall over ACK

If this thing gets going stronger and earlier like the other 12z suite showed....it's starting to get close to snow for interior sections if the track is good and the system is peaking in intensity south of SNE. But sure it's a long shot I agree....at least there's something to track.  And maybe next week can deliver a frozen surprise for most of us??

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hey man I wouldn't either.  Even for the skiers the season is mostly done for many so it isn't like snowfall ahead of a vacation period.  The E.SNE relationship with NW NE is a torn one...someone gets snow the other usually doesn't.  I think that's why often you can root for snow in the ME mountains, or even Whites, because climo wise both ESNE and those areas can get big snows...but move it to VT and it's a different climate path to glory.

We usually need a storm with a large circulation for both areas to get a lot of snow....something like March 4-6, 2001 or Dec 5-7, 2003, Jan 3-4, 2003....or even Feb 23-27, 1969.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We usually need a storm with a large circulation for both areas to get a lot of snow....something like March 4-6, 2001 or Dec 5-7, 2003, Jan 3-4, 2003....or even Feb 23-27, 1969.

Yeah that 12z ICON run was about as close to that size circulation but just need the thermals.  If cold enough that low would bring 12"+ from you to BTV to CAR and back to HFD.

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What’s causing One camp to take this over E NJ into SW CT 

or did euro resemble ukie 

The westward camp rides the southern shortwave faster up the east side of the trough...the further east solutions actually dig the southern stream further southeast before turning north...this also gives a bit more time for the lakes energy to come in and it swings the southern vort around it to the east.

If we take a solution like the euro, and delaye it another 4-6 hours on the southern stuff, then it could get pretty interesting because that lake energy goes crazy almost overhead....which for us is a bit too late, but get that to happen just a little sooner and we may see some accumulating snow on the backside of this.

 

It's obviously an uphill battle where we are both because of latitude on the setup, and our temps need to crash more.

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