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March Disco


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4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

It's epic, loop de loop, tropical-like input. most of the interior NE gets snow. Possibly BOS too.

Yeah...it's like the ICON solution but with the snow that the ICON solution should have ... but thinks is white rain everywhere - ...interesting... 

See, I don't like to just castigate models and tease them like a fated scene in Lord of the Flies ... I give them all consideration and just say yes or no at the end - ...  I know, no fun. heh

But yeah, this is probably more alarming than is getting credit ... The whole community is too Euro reliant sometimes I feel...  

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1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

Similar but with an earlier genesis, peak intensity (at the sfc).

Exactly ... I mean just the phasing aspect - wasn't clear. 

I mean let's get this to happen and then this will be a wild now-cast venture... 

This could be one of those deals where it's large drop cat-paw rains with light breeze, a flash of lightning and that type of thunder that rolls on for five minutes...followed by 50 mph winds and blinding sideways grid failure cake.   And like cake, you'll need candles... 

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11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Head to Sunday River or Surgarloaf, You won't be disappointed playing either course there except June can be sketchy at times depending on how they fared over the winter if your looking for a mountain course.

Killington as well for a mountain golf course. Skied and played golf on the same day many times.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Man... that's a helluva four cycle trend in the GGEM... boom boom boom boom... step wise -

Really can see the N/stream carving S in the lakes and about to subsume that intermediate stream impulse there... 

That lakes northern stream injection late in the game is the key to getting the more "exciting" solution...both deeper and crashing thickness for snow ptype. Last night's runs were mostly keeping it out of the game until it was too far north....but now the 12z run has trended back a little toward the southern energy digging a little further which is slowing it down allowing more time for the lake northern stream to capture....GFS doesn't quite make it but was closer....GGEM is able to capture far enough south.

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On the GFS you can see the downstream ridging increasing every run. I think at this point you have to lean strongly that the GFS is still behind with the southern stream wave amplification , and if that’s the case the northern stream energy as depicted will be sufficient for more explosive cyclogenesis further south—similar to other global guidance. 

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

On the GFS you can see the downstream ridging increasing every run. I think at this point you have to lean strongly that the GFS is still behind with the southern stream wave amplification , and if that’s the case the northern stream energy as depicted will be sufficient for more explosive cyclogenesis further south—similar to other global guidance. 

So then it bombs over ORH instead of east of the Cape if that happens. It's such a tight window to get a Canadian like solution.

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If you loop the Canadian, it has a real tight vortmax (almost looks like from diabatic processes) that goes wild and helps produce the solution it has. That may be spurious too. It's off the coast of Wilmington, NC at hr 36. If that is not real, I doubt we see the solution it shows.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

So then it bombs over ORH instead of east of the Cape if that happens. It's such a tight window to get a Canadian like solution.

The Canadian is at the upper margin of the envelope of possibilities imo. Unlikely bc of how extreme it is but certainly not impossible given the players. I think it’s more reasonable to blend the 12z GFS and the 12z GGEM at this point, based on the trending...

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If you loop the Canadian, it has a real tight vortmax (almost looks like from diabatic processes) that goes wild and helps produce the solution it has. That may be spurious too. It's off the coast of Wilmington, NC at hr 36. If that is not real, I doubt we see the solution it shows.

Hm... I thought the relative success (as in ...deeper/potent end result) was really set into motion early on - 

I'm in Will's camp in that regard, that this whole mess is really contingent upon the N/stream getting to the show in time. The GGEM chart/synoptic evolution does just that from 30 -54 hours...clicking through that shows that the stream and phasing proficiency got going before those diabatics - I just wouldn't guess those are what's driving this overall robust solution but it's probably one leading to the other type deal.. 

I mean...it'll fail... okay - sure... but just sayn' that this solution in the GGEM appears (to me) to be more pattern anchored -

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

The Canadian is at the upper margin of the envelope of possibilities imo. Unlikely bc of how extreme it is but certainly not impossible given the players. I think it’s more reasonable to blend the 12z GFS and the 12z GGEM at this point, based on the trending...

 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hm... I thought the relative success (as in ...deeper/potent end result) was really set into motion early on - 

I'm in Will's camp in that regard, that this whole mess is really contingent upon the N/stream getting to the show in time. The GGEM chart/synoptic evolution does just that from 30 -54 hours...clicking through that shows that the stream and phasing proficiency got going before those diabatics - I just wouldn't guess those are what's driving this overall robust solution. 

I mean...it'll fail... okay - sure... but just sayn' that this solution in the GGEM appears (to me) to be more pattern anchored -

What I mean is that I think this feature helps set in motion the deep and intense cyclogenesis because of the other factors. I see the trend at 12z, but you can see how that feature looks to act and kick the srn s/w a bit more east and not ride up the coast like the GFS is showing. 

 

Anyways, I guess it's not impossible...but I'm having trouble believing that solution. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 

What I mean is that I think this feature helps set in motion the deep and intense cyclogenesis because of the other factors. I see the trend at 12z, but you can see how that feature looks to act and kick the srn s/w a bit more east and not ride up the coast like the GFS is showing. 

 

Anyways, I guess it's not impossible...but I'm having trouble believing that solution. 

Yup ... you probably didn't see my edit but I clarified along those same lines .... " probably one factor led to the other" - in this case, set up such that diabatic flux could go nutty. 

Wouldn't surprised either if that were the case -

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