dryslot Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Went through the thread but couldn't find what the 06Z Euro showed up here as compared to 0Z. I couldn't find it in the thread. Bit colder or warmer up here? Warmer but probably go with the ensembles for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 The NAM is really treating the surface reflection like an April low... it spins up a system that is pallid relative to the over top mechanical suggestion.. .then, meanders it up through eastern NE while slowly filling it.. Meanwhile, the QPF is only focus in torpid CCB band of white rain for a couple few hours ... that is followed by a disorganized patch lighter hodgepodge of no stick snow and cold light rain... That's a spring system incarnate - May not be right, but at least the model is putting out climatology - I think what it's doing is just falling short on intensity... because this solution seems to have 0 dynamical cooling effects from lowering systemic heights/cyclogen feed-back. Given the thickness tapestry leading and during ...that's plenty close enough that a deeper UVM max would cryo - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Warmer but probably go with the ensembles for now. Thanks Dryslot.. I have a question for you or the others that know much more than me. If you took then ensemble mean position of intensity and position and compared it to the operational (GFS or Euro) over time which is more accurate? There must be computer programs that compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 That ICON solution could end up 20" of blue glacial calving snow over the interior. This run looks more captured /fuller phased, with the surface low even stalling for several hours over Boston light at 975 mb! It's painting liquid in the CCB over the interior but we should be climate leery of that structure and power dynamically allowing that marginality to remain on the plus side ... Long words to say bullshit - that look has tennis ball sized aggregates in 1/16th mile vis I mean... predicated on the assumption of this 12z run of that particular guidance having much accuracy - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 NAM says congrats Adirondacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 lol. 12Z RPM is the hybrid-esque equivalent of a tropical storm for the Outer Banks. It appears to be playing up the anomalously warm Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: lol. 12Z RPM is the hybrid-esque equivalent of a tropical storm for the Outer Banks. It appears to be playing up the anomalously warm Gulf Stream. Hahaha... why not show the storm ? heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 TGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hahaha... why not show the storm ? heh i'll leave that to social media. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That ICON solution could end up 20" of blue glacial calving snow over the interior. This run looks more captured /fuller phased, with the surface low even stalling for several hours over Boston light at 975 mb! It's painting liquid in the CCB over the interior but we should be climate leery of that structure and power dynamically allowing that marginality to remain on the plus side ... Long words to say bullshit - that look has tennis ball sized aggregates in 1/16th mile vis I mean... predicated on the assumption of this 12z run of that particular guidance having much accuracy - What a track. 975mb off Boston's trash island or wherever they measure snow. Its like a couple degrees C off the biggest Northeast event of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What a track. 975mb off Boston's trash island or wherever they measure snow. Its like a couple degrees C off the biggest Northeast event of the season. Shhh...don't tell anyone but ...that's snow if that happens.. The model would be wrong with that ptype if all other gestaltian qualities and parameters that make it ... withstand verification - Christ as is that's like 10' overhang glaciers ready to avalanche at 3,000 foot els. haha I like that arrogant jest of warm seclusion its got wrapped into the core there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, wxeyeNH said: Thanks Dryslot.. I have a question for you or the others that know much more than me. If you took then ensemble mean position of intensity and position and compared it to the operational (GFS or Euro) over time which is more accurate? There must be computer programs that compare. Further out in time, It would be the ensembles, The OP run is one member of the 51 cluster on the ECMWF, The mean is the avg position of all the members, So until you get into let say a day or two days out, Then the clustering would become much tighter by then and the the OP run would be more in play 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Seems like TT precip algorithm goes off 2m temps. I hate their surface maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Seems like TT precip algorithm goes off 2m temps all modeled products that attempt to assess ptype are too unreliable to . I hate like their surface maps to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Holy shit 12z GFS got a clue. Green Mtn destroyer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 True Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Nice rain storm on gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: I was shocked at what a huge jump the 12z vs 00z EPS made last night. Almost 2-3x the amount of precip and it's a good signal to see the EPS so gung-ho on a mean of 10+ at day 4. I haven't looked into the 6z yet but doesn't go out to fully include the upslope event. I wasn't shocked. Said yesterday ens were adjusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Holy shit 12z GFS got a clue. Green Mtn destroyer. Looking forward to more pics, living vicariously threw a cabin in the greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looking forward to more pics, living vicariously threw a cabin in the greens. Take a drive up. I'll give you a tour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looking forward to more pics, living vicariously threw a cabin in the greens. That's a monster upslope event 12z Fri through 18z Sat. Stakes going over 10 feet on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, mreaves said: Take a drive up. I'll give you a tour. Planning on a NNE golf vaca in June. I’ve seen snow before but have never tee’d up north of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 There's hidden dim side poetry in all this... In one sense, we are [apparently] vindicated for recognizing storm potential at exotic leads ... In the other sense ... ? Wah wah wahhhh. "For all the saddest words of tongue or pen, there are none sadder than these .... 'what might have been" The great Maud Miller storm to polish off the fetid turd of the 2018-2019 season. Poetry aside... it seems this is a marginal system that's just not getting that dynamical oomph that typical spring marginal systems need to flip to cryo - ... it's got the major players, just refuses to see it that way via these American guidance types. I'm curious what the GGEM looks like ...if should begin to acquiesce some on this run one might think; and it's not without its usefulness as a model, as that guidance has performed somewhat better in recent months actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice rain storm on gfs. PF will be talking to himself here shortly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 6-12” next week SNE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Next week looking better for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Planning on a NNE golf vaca in June. I’ve seen snow before but have never tee’d up north of pike. Head to Sunday River or Surgarloaf, You won't be disappointed playing either course there except June can be sketchy at times depending on how they fared over the winter if your looking for a mountain course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 GGEM gone wild/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I'm curious what the GGEM looks like ...if should begin to acquiesce some on this run one might think; and it's not without precedence as that guidance has performed somewhat better in recent months actually. It's epic, loop de loop, tropical-like input. most of the interior NE gets snow. Possibly BOS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GGEM gone wild/ no doubt. peak intensity S of LI...into the 960s. close to the benchmark after the capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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