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March Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Middleboro gets a runner up prize as well. All 3 of those places are quite large.

 

In any case, next week is quite interesting. Although it is pushing late March, the airmass isn't what I am worried about. Go figure.

WPC map is tantalizing with a low coming into the lower Ohio Valley a big sprawling high and eastern Ontario western Quebec

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20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Can you name more than 1?

March 16-17, 2014 in DC https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/18/rare-mid-march-snowstorm-in-washington-d-c-photos/?utm_term=.ab7580e87400  

April 9, 2009 in Delaware https://www.delawareonline.com/story/weather/2016/04/09/late-snow-comes-down-delaware/82830906/

I'm sure there are others....the 2014 one stings because I remember Matt Noyes was originally forecasting 6" for BOS and then everything slowly got more and more suppressed until it was just a partly cloudy day.

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1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

My fiancé and I are scheduled to close on our house next week... keep any and all storms away around that time. Another headache we don’t need 

When we bought our current home 2 1/2 years ago, we closed on a Friday.  The next day we were still taking things to the dump from the last place when a line of storms came through.  It took out 3 or 4 trees on the new property and we lost power for 18 hours.  Good times.

May your closing go smoother.

 

 

As for Friday I think this will end up between the Euro and CMC and I will end up with a plowable snow just to make my plow bill grow even higher.

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Just a couple quick observations about the 00z GGEM: 

One...that "oblong" surface pressure structure out there at hour 96 while it is abeam of ACK about 200 naut miles E like that is usually indicative of physical stressing in the model, where it's sort of resulting in a "toss up" between convective forcing and hydrodynamics with the deep layer trough mechanics ... so quite figuratively if not literally the resulting pressure pattern ends up equidistantly parsed out... 

That's all code for  ... the western end of that structure could end up favored in reality and verify dominant - or the east too... either way.  But, I tend to lay my money down on deep layer kinematics before convective processing ... when viewing models from D3+ out in time. 

Two ... if that blob of intense CCB -related QPF were situated a 100 mile west over interior SNE, those ptype products flip that over to those fuchsia colored eye-candy snow chokes real ... real quick.  

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... the the modulating influence of old sol is probably going to taint the thicknesses a little but ... otherwise - sure.

Thing is, I don't fully believe the models really integrate the daily flux changes of irradiation ... there right way.  It'a a sinusoidal integral.... i.e., slow at first, accelerates, then decelerates then the decline rate of change does the same behavior in the negative direction - perennially.  

Modeler's (duh) have that embedded in the model physics ( I mean... of course -right?) ...still, we see this all the time this time of year, two battles going on:

one is where the thickness overall get neutralized more than the models prove they are capable of assessing out in the middle/extended ranges.  Everything tends to bust on the warm side from synoptics to MOS ...however subtle or gross that is observable relative to all situations. 

the other, if a system still has a cold (enough) core, it has to be more and more of the leg work .. dynamic/systemically reliant to get things flipped over this late in the spring.  

It seems like those two arguments counter on the surface but they don't. 

This one has a frigid airmass below 850 as modeled. Real cold. It isn't the fake cold low thickness where all the cold is above Mt Washington. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This one has a frigid airmass below 850 as modeled. Real cold. It isn't the fake cold low thickness where all the cold is above Mt Washington. 

Trust me ... come hell or high water, whatever the models show of that "frigid" nature... some amount is going to get normalized, unless ...

I won't argue to powder blizzards all the way to mid April ? ...sure, but in those circumstances the attending air mass was whopper -SD and/or was ingested once the circulation was extreme; and or timed absolutely exquisitely such that no moderation/modulating had time to really take place.   If that all turns out that way next week... sweet!  haha, otherwise, we can't really rely upon our latitude so much anymore. That's gone until next Dec 1st...

Not arguing the overall set up ... I suppose we could file all this under the heading, "duh, it's after the first day of spring"

 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Trust me ... come hell or high water, whatever the models show of that "frigid" nature... some amount is going to get normalized, unless ...

I won't argue to powder blizzards all the way to mid April ? ...sure, but in those circumstances the attending air mass was whopper -SD and/or was ingested once the circulation was extreme; and or timed absolutely exquisitely such that no moderation/modulating had time to really take place.   If that all turns out that way next week... sweet!  haha, otherwise, we can't really rely upon our latitude so much anymore. That's gone until next Dec 1st...

Not arguing the overall set up ... I suppose we could file all this under the heading, "duh, it's after the first day of spring"

 

No I get what you mean. Part of the "cold" also has to do with it precipitating. If it's a sunny blue bird day, that would be near 40..but throw in precip and it turns into the U20s like the April fluff job of 2016 had. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No I get what you mean. Part of the "cold" also has to do with it precipitating. If it's a sunny blue bird day, that would be near 40..but throw in precip and it turns into the U20s like the April fluff job of 2016 had. 

The potential for next week you're talking about here..correct??

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

06z EPS is east of the Op run, Tracked the low over 41/70 into the Bay of Fundy, That looked like it would at least keep the elevations more in line for snow.

8% of folks have a good enough idea where the bay of fundy is for that to be ....lol nevermind 

just east of Eastport Maine 

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

8% of folks have a good enough idea where the bay of fundy is for that to be useful

How about track thru GOM? (Gulf of Maine), Most familiar with that? Living in NE some should take a geography lesson..........lol

 

BOF.png

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

06z EPS is east of the Op run, Tracked the low over 41/70 (Near ACK) into the Bay of Fundy, That looked like it would at least keep the elevations more in line for snow.

I was shocked at what a huge jump the 12z vs 00z EPS made last night.  Almost 2-3x the amount of precip and it's a good signal to see the EPS so gung-ho on a mean of 10+ at day 4.  

I haven't looked into the 6z yet but doesn't go out to fully include the upslope event. 

IMG_2548.thumb.PNG.8859d8d32e50fd9f4e5ae984827051dd.PNG

 

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I doubt thats true here. Weather savvy people on a forum have a good handle on regional geography. 

lol, I didn't think it was that difficult, Little easier then some airport codes that when they get tossed out there, Folks have to look them up, The internet is a wonderful thing.

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If I lived in the woods of northern Maine my high school ciriculum probably would have tocuhed on that. 

I lived in suburbia of NY and remember learning about the Bay of Fundy and it's ridiculous tides. 

Thats not that obscure of a geographic location, lol.  It has some of the highest tides in the world and that's a pretty well known place.

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If I lived in the woods of northern Maine my high school ciriculum probably would have tocuhed on that. 

We Fundy

I typically get buried on that line, It the low tracks east of NS, I get cirrus so you can bet i know the difference .............:)

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I was shocked at what a huge jump the 12z vs 00z EPS made last night.  Almost 2-3x the amount of precip and it's a good signal to see the EPS so gung-ho on a mean of 10+ at day 4.  

I haven't looked into the 6z yet but doesn't go out to fully include the upslope event. 

IMG_2548.thumb.PNG.8859d8d32e50fd9f4e5ae984827051dd.PNG

 

And there is my plowable event.  

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2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I’m sure it will. Anecdotally, I recall far too many winters that ended with our friends in the MA getting one last significant snow while we were sunny and 36F with a stiff breeze. 

That's been April up here the past 3 years.  Every site I've checked from NYC to GYX has had a much bigger event during that period than my 3.8" last April 6, and those north of Gotham have all had considerably more total snow.  Climo will eventually win out, I'm sure (as it has up to now this season), but it's been inverse for recent spring snowfall.

If this turns out to be a big cold rainer, I think the main issue here would be ice jam floods, as the headwater pack is far from ripe, though such an event would prime the flood pump for a later deluge.  Rain and 50s would be a different story, but that much warmth seems off the table now.

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yep.  It takes quite a while to get across that city.  You wouldn't think so, but quite large with lots of roads.

Sounds like going from Lubec to EPO - less than 3 miles apart, but the drive around Cobscook Bay tales nearly an hour.  On the right tide, a strong swimmer would get there first.  (Not this coming Friday, however - could be pretty wild there.)

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