mahk_webstah Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Middleboro gets a runner up prize as well. All 3 of those places are quite large. In any case, next week is quite interesting. Although it is pushing late March, the airmass isn't what I am worried about. Go figure. WPC map is tantalizing with a low coming into the lower Ohio Valley a big sprawling high and eastern Ontario western Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: Can you name more than 1? Well 14 for sure I believe had like 3 storms for the Mid Atlantic.. where we missed out on all of them. There's been others too. It happens sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, weathafella said: Can you name more than 1? March 16-17, 2014 in DC https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/18/rare-mid-march-snowstorm-in-washington-d-c-photos/?utm_term=.ab7580e87400 April 9, 2009 in Delaware https://www.delawareonline.com/story/weather/2016/04/09/late-snow-comes-down-delaware/82830906/ I'm sure there are others....the 2014 one stings because I remember Matt Noyes was originally forecasting 6" for BOS and then everything slowly got more and more suppressed until it was just a partly cloudy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My fiancé and I are scheduled to close on our house next week... keep any and all storms away around that time. Another headache we don’t need When we bought our current home 2 1/2 years ago, we closed on a Friday. The next day we were still taking things to the dump from the last place when a line of storms came through. It took out 3 or 4 trees on the new property and we lost power for 18 hours. Good times. May your closing go smoother. As for Friday I think this will end up between the Euro and CMC and I will end up with a plowable snow just to make my plow bill grow even higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: WPC map is tantalizing with a low coming into the lower Ohio Valley a big sprawling high and eastern Ontario western Quebec We can admire this sprawling quebec high when we get shit streaked at the precise time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just a couple quick observations about the 00z GGEM: One...that "oblong" surface pressure structure out there at hour 96 while it is abeam of ACK about 200 naut miles E like that is usually indicative of physical stressing in the model, where it's sort of resulting in a "toss up" between convective forcing and hydrodynamics with the deep layer trough mechanics ... so quite figuratively if not literally the resulting pressure pattern ends up equidistantly parsed out... That's all code for ... the western end of that structure could end up favored in reality and verify dominant - or the east too... either way. But, I tend to lay my money down on deep layer kinematics before convective processing ... when viewing models from D3+ out in time. Two ... if that blob of intense CCB -related QPF were situated a 100 mile west over interior SNE, those ptype products flip that over to those fuchsia colored eye-candy snow chokes real ... real quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm... the the modulating influence of old sol is probably going to taint the thicknesses a little but ... otherwise - sure. Thing is, I don't fully believe the models really integrate the daily flux changes of irradiation ... there right way. It'a a sinusoidal integral.... i.e., slow at first, accelerates, then decelerates then the decline rate of change does the same behavior in the negative direction - perennially. Modeler's (duh) have that embedded in the model physics ( I mean... of course -right?) ...still, we see this all the time this time of year, two battles going on: one is where the thickness overall get neutralized more than the models prove they are capable of assessing out in the middle/extended ranges. Everything tends to bust on the warm side from synoptics to MOS ...however subtle or gross that is observable relative to all situations. the other, if a system still has a cold (enough) core, it has to be more and more of the leg work .. dynamic/systemically reliant to get things flipped over this late in the spring. It seems like those two arguments counter on the surface but they don't. This one has a frigid airmass below 850 as modeled. Real cold. It isn't the fake cold low thickness where all the cold is above Mt Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This one has a frigid airmass below 850 as modeled. Real cold. It isn't the fake cold low thickness where all the cold is above Mt Washington. Trust me ... come hell or high water, whatever the models show of that "frigid" nature... some amount is going to get normalized, unless ... I won't argue to powder blizzards all the way to mid April ? ...sure, but in those circumstances the attending air mass was whopper -SD and/or was ingested once the circulation was extreme; and or timed absolutely exquisitely such that no moderation/modulating had time to really take place. If that all turns out that way next week... sweet! haha, otherwise, we can't really rely upon our latitude so much anymore. That's gone until next Dec 1st... Not arguing the overall set up ... I suppose we could file all this under the heading, "duh, it's after the first day of spring" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Trust me ... come hell or high water, whatever the models show of that "frigid" nature... some amount is going to get normalized, unless ... I won't argue to powder blizzards all the way to mid April ? ...sure, but in those circumstances the attending air mass was whopper -SD and/or was ingested once the circulation was extreme; and or timed absolutely exquisitely such that no moderation/modulating had time to really take place. If that all turns out that way next week... sweet! haha, otherwise, we can't really rely upon our latitude so much anymore. That's gone until next Dec 1st... Not arguing the overall set up ... I suppose we could file all this under the heading, "duh, it's after the first day of spring" No I get what you mean. Part of the "cold" also has to do with it precipitating. If it's a sunny blue bird day, that would be near 40..but throw in precip and it turns into the U20s like the April fluff job of 2016 had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No I get what you mean. Part of the "cold" also has to do with it precipitating. If it's a sunny blue bird day, that would be near 40..but throw in precip and it turns into the U20s like the April fluff job of 2016 had. The potential for next week you're talking about here..correct?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: The potential for next week you're talking about here..correct?? Yeah. Hopefully not suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 06z EPS is east of the Op run, Tracked the low over 41/70 (Near ACK) into the Bay of Fundy, That looked like it would at least keep the elevations more in line for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: 06z EPS is east of the Op run, Tracked the low over 41/70 into the Bay of Fundy, That looked like it would at least keep the elevations more in line for snow. 8% of folks have a good enough idea where the bay of fundy is for that to be ....lol nevermind just east of Eastport Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 8% of folks have a good enough idea where the bay of fundy is for that to be useful How about track thru GOM? (Gulf of Maine), Most familiar with that? Living in NE some should take a geography lesson..........lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah. Hopefully not suppressed. LOL....Ya the suppression idea would certainly fit into the tenor of this winter for sure...we'll see if the winter stays true to the end, and suppresses the system when an otherwise good airmass/set up is in place.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 06z EPS is east of the Op run, Tracked the low over 41/70 (Near ACK) into the Bay of Fundy, That looked like it would at least keep the elevations more in line for snow. I was shocked at what a huge jump the 12z vs 00z EPS made last night. Almost 2-3x the amount of precip and it's a good signal to see the EPS so gung-ho on a mean of 10+ at day 4. I haven't looked into the 6z yet but doesn't go out to fully include the upslope event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 8% of folks have a good enough idea where the bay of fundy is for that to be ....lol nevermind just east of Eastport Maine I doubt thats true here. Weather savvy people on a forum have a good handle on regional geography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 8% of folks have a good enough idea where the bay of fundy is for that to be ....lol nevermind C'mon Pickles...you should know where Campobello Island is!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I doubt thats true here. Weather savvy people on a forum have a good handle on regional geography. lol, I didn't think it was that difficult, Little easier then some airport codes that when they get tossed out there, Folks have to look them up, The internet is a wonderful thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: How about track thru GOM? (Gulf of Maine), Most familiar with that? Living in NE some should take a geography lesson..........lol If I lived in the woods of northern Maine my high school ciriculum probably would have tocuhed on that. We Fundy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 The quicker and more intense this develops the better the outcome for NNE snow as the more intense solutions are offshore. Minimum slp centers in red on the spaghettios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: If I lived in the woods of northern Maine my high school ciriculum probably would have tocuhed on that. I lived in suburbia of NY and remember learning about the Bay of Fundy and it's ridiculous tides. Thats not that obscure of a geographic location, lol. It has some of the highest tides in the world and that's a pretty well known place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If I lived in the woods of northern Maine my high school ciriculum probably would have tocuhed on that. We Fundy I typically get buried on that line, It the low tracks east of NS, I get cirrus so you can bet i know the difference ............. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I was shocked at what a huge jump the 12z vs 00z EPS made last night. Almost 2-3x the amount of precip and it's a good signal to see the EPS so gung-ho on a mean of 10+ at day 4. I haven't looked into the 6z yet but doesn't go out to fully include the upslope event. And there is my plowable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said: I’m sure it will. Anecdotally, I recall far too many winters that ended with our friends in the MA getting one last significant snow while we were sunny and 36F with a stiff breeze. That's been April up here the past 3 years. Every site I've checked from NYC to GYX has had a much bigger event during that period than my 3.8" last April 6, and those north of Gotham have all had considerably more total snow. Climo will eventually win out, I'm sure (as it has up to now this season), but it's been inverse for recent spring snowfall. If this turns out to be a big cold rainer, I think the main issue here would be ice jam floods, as the headwater pack is far from ripe, though such an event would prime the flood pump for a later deluge. Rain and 50s would be a different story, but that much warmth seems off the table now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nope, maybe another mile or 2. Taunton is a deceivingly geographically large City. 48 square miles. Can take 20-25 minutes to cross town. Yep. It takes quite a while to get across that city. You wouldn't think so, but quite large with lots of roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 How strong winds are we talking in SNE from this? Gusts over 50 inland and 65+ coast? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How strong winds are we talking in SNE from this? Gusts over 50 inland and 65+ coast? Not much wind until it passes well to the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yep. It takes quite a while to get across that city. You wouldn't think so, but quite large with lots of roads. Sounds like going from Lubec to EPO - less than 3 miles apart, but the drive around Cobscook Bay tales nearly an hour. On the right tide, a strong swimmer would get there first. (Not this coming Friday, however - could be pretty wild there.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Went through the thread but couldn't find what the 06Z Euro showed up here as compared to 0Z. I couldn't find it in the thread. Bit colder or warmer up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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