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March Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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Just an observation, but the trending/evolution of this reminds me somewhat of the bomb the central/western US saw last week. *Def not referencing this in terms of sensible weather impacts—only model guidance trends and overall synoptic look.

I think the trend west and earlier complete phase is real and continues. Leaning towards possibility we see something really wound up (sub 980) but right on the coast of SNE or the Northern Mid Atlantic. Not ruling out big snows for the far interior and most of NNE just yet...

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week is more text book, if you will. Good airmass, system moving across country. Just need to make sure PV to north (which is sort of the result of this system Thursday night), doesn't pork us. 

I’m sure it will. Anecdotally, I recall far too many winters that ended with our friends in the MA getting one last significant snow while we were sunny and 36F with a stiff breeze. 

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's got a lot more work to do, including it's thermals.

Oh I agree. Thermals are garbage but then what model has perfected that? It does get credit for track from like 6 days out. Most other models had nothing or congrats Flemish cap.

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53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week is more text book, if you will. Good airmass, system moving across country. Just need to make sure PV to north (which is sort of the result of this system Thursday night), doesn't pork us. 

Meh.  It's done.

44 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

My fiancé and I are scheduled to close on our house next week... keep any and all storms away around that time. Another headache we don’t need 

Congratulations!  Where are the new digs?

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Gotta love this winter. A coastal track over SE MA and it’s rain up into much of NNE. This was a pretty good antecedent airmass, but there’s just too much time for it to get flooded out. 

...Or moderated out ... but yeah, agreed in principle. 

It's past the Ides of March.  It's like ...what'd we expect would happen to an air mass that's suffering insolation under open sky ...which other than nuisance, that's been the case ... open sky lasing 

It's like comparing 'Ali to Tyson ... can't be done with exactitude.  But, intuitively, take this same exact overall synoptic leading set of parameters and evolution and transport it all back in time to as little as a month ago and there's your -.5C isothermal event....  

Having said that, ... my own experience in the spring with blue bomb climo is that they are almost always modeled to be +1 to even as much as +3 C isothermal in the NW arc of lows... then end up verifying  9::1 with 0C at every sigma through 800 mb and beyond. This strikes me as sort of similar to that - plausibly.  I just put the 18z and 00z and 06z NAM's 850 mb progs and it was shaving fractions across those three cycles - perhaps atoning for the above tendency. We'll see...  

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PYM is like that, too.

Middleboro gets a runner up prize as well. All 3 of those places are quite large.

 

In any case, next week is quite interesting. Although it is pushing late March, the airmass isn't what I am worried about. Go figure.

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, that's why it helps to know where reports come in for storms. All the Towns down here are enormous.  Middleboro, Carver, Rochester, Lakeville, Freetown.

They figure only so many people per cranbery bog, so what the hell, clump 'em all together lol

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Meh , if its a monster upslope I’d consider. I want to see over 1” of  upslope QPF to consider 

Yeah it will need more residence time to get 1" QPF but for the global models like GFS and EURO to show the QPF they do is a big signal.  

Get that into range of the meso-scale models and my gut says the global models are under-doing the QPF.  

We've talked about this in the past, but upslope in the spring and fall can be surprisingly moist QPF bombs with more available moisture.  

Not a bad look...

IMG_2547.thumb.PNG.016789ee3fe41a00b75d18c2c2a9aa77.PNG

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week is more text book, if you will. Good airmass, system moving across country. Just need to make sure PV to north (which is sort of the result of this system Thursday night), doesn't pork us. 

Mm... the the modulating influence of old sol is probably going to taint the thicknesses a little but ... otherwise - sure.

Thing is, I don't fully believe the models really integrate the daily flux changes of irradiation ... there right way.  It'a a sinusoidal integral.... i.e., slow at first, accelerates, then decelerates then the decline rate of change does the same behavior in the negative direction - perennially.  

Modeler's (duh) have that embedded in the model physics ( I mean... of course -right?) ...still, we see this all the time this time of year, two battles going on:

one is where the thickness overall get neutralized more than the models prove they are capable of assessing out in the middle/extended ranges.  Everything tends to bust on the warm side from synoptics to MOS ...however subtle or gross that is observable relative to all situations. 

the other, if a system still has a cold (enough) core, it has to be more and more of the leg work .. dynamic/systemically reliant to get things flipped over this late in the spring.  

It seems like those two arguments counter on the surface but they don't. 

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