ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Tip's hideous E flow showing up on Euro for next Thu/Fri on the southwest flank of that high in New Foundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Man I would give a lot for that to work out next week. Perfect Airmass for this time of year to get something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Clown range euro trying to line up another event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Clown range euro trying to line up another event. LOL...clown range has been lining em up all winter...they just never get to the front of the line. This looked decent a few days back too..now, not so much. The story of the winter...nothing really ever makes it to the altar. Too Bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2019 Author Share Posted March 21, 2019 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: By turning it in early I thought that’s what you meant. I turned in early bc I was tired and didn't expect exciting runs last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: LOL...clown range has been lining em up all winter...they just never get to the front of the line. This looked decent a few days back too..now, not so much. The story of the winter...nothing really ever makes it to the altar. Too Bad. This thing is whatever happens next week was in clown range though. I can't really get all emotional for a clown range solution. March 3 came out of nowhere too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man I would give a lot for that to work out next week. Perfect Airmass for this time of year to get something like that. Unfortunately ...that "perfect air mass" is useless in any model at this range ... it's a moving target. If the models see an air mass as x ... it ends up being x' at this time of year. ... which, could still be enough - I mean, I'd feel better about that statement of yours if it went sompin' like 'is : "Man I would give a lot for that to work out next week. If verification of the air mass can compensate for the models ... always being too cold at at the end of March, it would end up perfect for this time of year to get something like that. " haha just goshin' but still... I do try to modulate for those blanket biases during transition seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I turned in early bc I was tired and didn't expect exciting runs last night. Oh my bad then. I completely misinterpreted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Unfortunately ...that "perfect air mass" is useless in any model at this range ... it's moving target. If the models sees the air mass a x ... it ends up being x' at this time of year. ... which, could still be enough - I mean, I'd feel better about that statement of yours if it went sompin' like 'is : "Man I would give a lot for that to work out next week. If verification of the air mass can compensate for the models ... always being too cold at at the end of March, it would end up perfect for this time of year to get something like that. " haha just goshin' but still... I do try to modulate for those blanket biases during transition seasons. Nah that would have been snow for everyone. That's cold where it matters. You aren't warming those temps up much when precipitation is thrown at it. Instead it may be just chilly and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nah that would have been snow for everyone. That's cold where it matters. You aren't warming those temps up much when precipitation is thrown at it. Instead it may be just chilly and dry. Well .. you're talking about hygroscopic/thermodynamic effects in situ to precipitating into an x-y-z air mass.. I'm speculating ..based upon years of observation, that the entire thickness tapestry of the models won't be as low when push comes to shove... Put it this way, if the entire medium was say 1/4 SD lower, then when we got there, the assessment would make more sense to me. but hell... It's snowed in May in 1977 ... Know what would be fun... I'd like to take all the modeling initializations from those outre events of the distant past and fire off a Euro cycle and see what these modern tools present us with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well .. you're talking about hygroscopic/thermodynamic effects in situ to precipitating into an x-y-z air mass.. I'm speculating ..based upon years of observation, that the entire thickness tapestry of the models won't be as low when push comes to shove... Put it this way, if the entire medium was say 1/4 SD lower, then when we got there, the assessment would make more sense to me. but hell... It's snowed in May in 1977 ... Know what would be fun... I'd like to take all the modeling initializations from those outre events of the distant past and fire off a Euro cycle and see what these modern tools present us with. -8C AT 925. That's cold. Sure with sun it would not feel bad, but that's a good cold delivery we are getting. Should it precipitate, that's a blowing and drifting event. Alas the only thing drifting by may be cirrus. I'm just talking about the big picture. Could it wax or wane, sure..but that is a classic look for late season if the low came up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: -8C AT 925. That's cold. Sure with sun it would not feel bad, but that's a good cold delivery we are getting. Should it precipitate, that's a blowing and drifting event. Alas the only thing drifting by may be cirrus. I'm just talking about the big picture. Could it wax or wane, sure..but that is a classic look for late season if the low came up. This time of year if we are going to be BN it may as well snow because it sucks burning heating oil for cold bluebird days on end. Although cold and dry might be a good excuse for a sick day from work to go skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: -8C AT 925. That's cold. Sure with sun it would not feel bad, but that's a good cold delivery we are getting. Should it precipitate, that's a blowing and drifting event. Alas the only thing drifting by may be cirrus. I'm just talking about the big picture. Could it wax or wane, sure..but that is a classic look for late season if the low came up. I understand all that ... you're missing my point. If the technology says -8 at 925 mb now, for then... I'm wondering if it'll be -1 when we get there ... If you are already taking seasonal variance into consideration regarding models tending to be too cold loaded ...and still somehow coming up with that -8 than okay - ..please enlighten me. Otherwise, if the models have -8 now, for then, ...then ain't that cold. Sorry - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I understand all that ... you're missing my point. If the technology says -8 at 925 mb now, for then... I'm wondering if it'll be -1 when we get there ... If you are already taking seasonal variance into consideration regarding models tending to be too cold loaded ...and still somehow coming up with that -8 than okay - ..please enlighten me. Otherwise, if a the models have -8 now, for then, ...then ain't that cold. Sorry - You’re not sorry about anything 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 21, 2019 Author Share Posted March 21, 2019 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh my bad then. I completely misinterpreted. I will admit to be not being very intrigued about next week, though. There has just been very little on guidance....I get the whole "5 days" thing, but there just hasn't even been any fleeting stronger signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I understand all that ... you're missing my point. If the technology says -8 at 925 mb now, for then... I'm wondering if it'll be -1 when we get there ... If you are already taking seasonal variance into consideration regarding models tending to be too cold loaded ...and still somehow coming up with that -8 than okay - ..please enlighten me. Otherwise, if the models have -8 now, for then, ...then ain't that cold. Sorry - I think we are talking two different things. If the pattern shifts, troughing not as deep , then yeah it won’t be as warm. But if you are just saying that everything stays exactly the same, but somehow guidance is off 7C at 925 because it’s underestimating solar influence, I’m not even sure the LFM would be as bad. That doesn’t happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 19 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: This time of year if we are going to be BN it may as well snow because it sucks burning heating oil for cold bluebird days on end. Although cold and dry might be a good excuse for a sick day from work to go skiing. My home heats nicely with the late March sun. During January, yeah the cold dry is useless, but now at least there is some natural heating during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think we are talking two different things. If the pattern shifts, troughing not as deep , then yeah it won’t be as warm. But if you are just saying that everything stays exactly the same, but somehow guidance is off 7C at 925 because it’s underestimating solar influence, I’m not even sure the LFM would be as bad. That doesn’t happen. OH of course not... I was just making exaggerated examples to make the point... anywho, ... I just want to also remind folks that this present system was at one time progressive and flat in the Euro and it was in fact that FV3' model that led the way here. I mean, not with details necessarily of course. Having said that, there is a big difference ( to me ). At risk of being paradoxical ... being someone that is teleconnector reliant ... the PNA is flattening pretty dramatically and there doesn't appear to be any other hemispheric/super synoptic forcing ... If anyone has any other projections on that I'm all ears... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: OH of course not... I was just making exaggerated examples to make the point... anywho, ... I just want to also remind folks that this present system was at one time progressive and flat in the Euro and it was in fact that FV3' model that led the way here. I mean, not with details necessarily of course. Having said that, there is a big difference ( to me ) being someone that is teleconnector reliant ... and that is the PNA is flattening pretty dramatically and there doesn't appear to be any other hemispheric/super synoptic forcing ... If anyone has any other projections on that I'm all ears... It is flattening out and sort of kicked out by a trough out west too. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Shit of course.... I just checked the CDC silly cartoon bar-graphs that site provided to the uninvited ... and funny the EPO is modestly negative out of nowhere. Meh...probably just seasonal shifting f'n with base-line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’re not sorry about anything This from a site's crowning prevaricator ... You make Trump look like the Pope with your analysis ... about anything... I'm sure I have things to apologize for in life; coming in here and dealing with your shenanigans however for fun and or not ... isn't really one of them. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 3 hours ago, dendrite said: The weather doesn't have feelings so it really doesn't matter what you want. We will get our weeks of drizzle and fog and like it. Time for folks to up the Zoloft dosage for Rainpril and May Gray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 18z GFS pretty much suppressed. Close enough to keep an eye on it. Expecting zilch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 NJ special on the FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Gonna be like 2014...Mid Atlantic gets the goods at the end of the season..while we stay cold and dry...how ironic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Gonna be like 2014...Mid Atlantic gets the goods at the end of the season..while we stay cold and dry...how ironic. Funny. I mentioned to fella how that exact scenario could play out this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Gonna be like 2014...Mid Atlantic gets the goods at the end of the season..while we stay cold and dry...how ironic. I won’t cry missing a 2-4” event there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I won’t cry missing a 2-4” event there. Doesn’t look like this has much room for bigger impacts wherever it hits. Chugging along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 44 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Gonna be like 2014...Mid Atlantic gets the goods at the end of the season..while we stay cold and dry...how ironic. At this point, I'm good with moving on. Bring on spring. Don't need to shovel glop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 55 minutes ago, Hoth said: At this point, I'm good with moving on. Bring on spring. Don't need to shovel glop. 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I won’t cry missing a 2-4” event there. I agree on both these points...was thinking this could’ve been a more siggy event. If it’s 2-4 then they can have that BS! Bring on spring please....this winter blew!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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