Hazey Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 This winter will set a record for how many head fakes the models threw at us. Very annoying watching potential go down the drain with every model run leading right up to go time. Did that a lot this winter. Won't miss that one bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 We march to 50” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: We march to 50” You do. Sh!t island break 30” yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: You do. Sh!t island break 30” yet? I'm at 34.25" for the season now. I'd love to hit 40" for the season, and that would still be 8 plus below normal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 12z euro D8-10 looks beautiful to round out March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Euro ensembles today are def more suppressed than the previous couple runs....not what we wanted to see. Still nearly 6 days out, but that's a look we want reversed if the goal is to get a storm in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Euro's sellin' a couple of top 10 days ... D9 and 10 if anyone's bitin' Thing is, I don't see why it has to be less likely ...when comparing the GEFs tele layout .. cross guidance style! anyway, PNA flat lines and EPO is on life support... and NAO is sort of stagnated in a positive mode it took at the end of February ...and with these system spinning up into the D.straight graveyard I could see the positive mode flexing stronger if anything... Course, we gotta get through Tuesday first... One thing about the Euro... It (EPS too) was pretty flat and progressive with this current system of (decaying) interest ... and regardless of whether we get what we want out of it as sensible weather hobbyists or not ... that's side's the point. The FV3' [apparently] gets pat on the back and the Euro was late to the game. I'm just saying this because this pattern we're in ... be leery of progressive attempts by the Euro. It could correct in similar vein. Then, we may flip out of that system into a rapid turn around ... just like we probably do over this weekend. All in all, today's the first day of spring and reality seems to want to be typically a pain in the ass concomitant with that particular p.o.s. new england time of year. I'm waiting for 2005, May to show up at any point - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 I just came back from skiing at Mohawk Mountain. There's snowcover around Mohawk, mostly North facing area's. New Hartford also has snowcover. Interesting temperature inversion this morning. 32F when I left Enfield, 27 in New Hartford, 34F in Torrington and 38F at Mohawk Mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 20, 2019 Author Share Posted March 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles today are def more suppressed than the previous couple runs....not what we wanted to see. Still nearly 6 days out, but that's a look we want reversed if the goal is to get a storm in here. Kind of just want it to either go to hell, or commit, and be done with this forgettable season one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles today are def more suppressed than the previous couple runs....not what we wanted to see. Still nearly 6 days out, but that's a look we want reversed if the goal is to get a storm in here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see PHI-ACY snowstorm while we smoke 39F and cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 20, 2019 Author Share Posted March 20, 2019 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: I wouldn’t be surprised to see PHI-ACY snowstorm while we smoke 39F and cirrus. I'm in that thin sliver of NE that has avoided a major snow event with surgical precision. An elevation event Friday sealed with the kiss of some pike south BS next week would be a masterfully apt ending to this FU season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kind of just want it to either go to hell, or commit, and be done with this forgettable season one way or another. I'll give it until about 00z Saturday to start showing some goods assuming it doesn't trend worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 20, 2019 Author Share Posted March 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'll give it until about 00z Saturday to start showing some goods assuming it doesn't trend worse. I feel like most are just waiting for it to fail...don't sense much excitement...many have one foot out the door. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 And it’s not like it’s anything over 3-6 down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Ensembles like the Tip frisbee days for Mar 30-31 too before we go back into the colder airmass to start April. Seems like that early April period would probably be our final chance at a snow event in SNE assuming the EPS have the right idea...obviously we're now talking days 12-15 so the look can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Euro might be a scraper for the south coast next week but plenty of time for that to change too. That's been the story for spring events here for some time. My last post-equinox storm of 4"+ came in 2011. Losing a potential drought-breaker to cold RA (which is increasingly looking like the Fri-Sat solution here), is a less common variation on the theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 48 minutes ago, weathafella said: And it’s not like it’s anything over 3-6 down south. Hmmm...might be adding to my list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Bouchard’s forecast didn’t even hint at next week’s threat. Sun/clouds near 50 all week until we heat it up big time next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 28 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Bouchard’s forecast didn’t even hint at next week’s threat. Sun/clouds near 50 all week until we heat it up big time next weekend. To be fair Harvey really didn't have much to say on that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 17 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: To be fair Harvey really didn't have much to say on that either. Safe bet. It’s nearing April and all guidance is suppressed. No need to rile up social media for a likely nothingburger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: Hmmm...might be adding to my list. You count 6 or less? Let them have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: You count 6 or less? Let them have it. Absolutely. Especially down there where 2+ is a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 So we have a low moving north and a fropa on gfs and suppression on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So we have a low moving north and a fropa on gfs and suppression on euro. Doesn’t really give me a warm and fuzzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Doesn’t really give me a warm and fuzzy. I got a little fuzzy. Compromise is nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I got a little fuzzy. Compromise is nice. Yeah this maybe is one of those scenarios where the GFS shows that clown northwest solution and the euro starts finally coming northwest inside of 120 hours and we end up with a good event as a compromise...at least that would be the ideal scenario. In a good winter we could almost call it play by play from here...but in this winter I expect something like a RIC snowstorm while we have overcast skies and cold temps for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 20, 2019 Author Share Posted March 20, 2019 We seem to have lost the blockbuster ambiance...I'm all set with 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Yeah this maybe is one of those scenarios where the GFS shows that clown northwest solution and the euro starts finally coming northwest inside of 120 hours and we end up with a good event as a compromise...at least that would be the ideal scenario. In a good winter we could almost call it play by play from here...but in this winter I expect something like a RIC snowstorm while we have overcast skies and cold temps for a day. Didn’t that just happen with this storm on Friday? I’m pretty sure the euro was quite east at one point. Like 6 days out. Almost whiffed me. The fv3 gfs had the tucked in look back then. On it’s own for a bit. Not saying the same scenario will play out for the next event but room for watch. I’m sure it will whiff. Winters one last kick to our balls as he exits stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 never liked the hemispheric setting ... still don't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Delish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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