CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Its developing a tc over the gulf stream Yeah seems to be related to what I was mentioning earlier with that vort. I'm glad it's producing fantasy TCs in March now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I like the warm seclusion on the Canadian. Yeah the ICON did that too.. It's like a couple of renowned tin-foil hatted hill-people called NASA to let them know the aliens are coming - hm... should NASA believe 'em? But, anyway ..fun-making aside, this situation just may be too explosive for some guidance to handle it physically - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah seems to be related to what I was mentioning earlier with that vort. I'm glad it's producing fantasy TCs in March now. Right. Theres little vort there but it feedbacks on warm core process unrealistically between like 30 and 54 hours imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I like the warm seclusion on the Canadian. Your typical March seclusion off the Delmarva. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah seems to be related to what I was mentioning earlier with that vort. I'm glad it's producing fantasy TCs in March now. That aspect no doubt appears wonky. But to me, if you compare H5 at hr 54 of the 12z GFS and 12z GGEM and then consider the GFS trending behind, it seems the GFS is heading towards that H5 GGEM depiction at hr 54–or at least a close resemblance of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 There was a southern stream bomb ... last year or the year before, can't recall which ... but pressures plumbed to sub 960 passing well E of ACK and the storm was so large and powerful that it still clipped eastern areas by virtue of its size alone. We can get these diabatic fed-back beasts ...they don't all have to fantasies... Course' reanalysis was never done on that one so I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just a touch different down south. Ive noticed the canadian develops things tropically in the winter before..just like it overdevelops in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Was there a,warm seclusion in March 2004 or 2005? ~950mb low that bombed headed into the GOM...I forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That aspect no doubt appears wonky. But to me, if you compare H5 at hr 54 of the 12z GFS and 12z GGEM and then consider the GFS trending behind, it seems the GFS is heading towards that H5 GGEM depiction at hr 54–or at least a close resemblance of it... I agree..it made a move, I'm not trying to be negative, just not really into this one as far as excitement goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There was a southern stream bomb ... last year or the year before, can't recall which ... but pressures plumbed to sub 960 passing well E of ACK and the storm was so large and powerful that it still clipped eastern areas by virtue of its size alone. We can get these diabatic fed-back beasts ...they don't all have to fantasies... Course' reanalysis was never done on that one so I'm not sure. Jan 4 2018. That storm was very well modeled and fully warm secluded off the nc coast. It set saint john nb's pressure record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I agree..it made a move, I'm not trying to be negative, just not really into this one as far as excitement goes. Yesterday you wanted a big windy Rainer , Would you rather just rains for everyone to Stowe and wind for your hood seriously thou you see development being too late to give you your windy Rainer ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Jan 4 2018. That storm was very well modeled and fully warm secluded off the nc coast. It set saint john nb's pressure record. Ya I figured that's what he was talking about...but wasn't sure if he was talking March of last year, or just last year in general. Ya that thing was way out there and still gave interior SNE a Foot Plus(14-16 inches here) last January. Too bad it wasn't closer in...would have been a true history maker for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Yesterday you wanted a big windy Rainer , Would you rather just rains for everyone to Stowe and wind for your hood I think most would like a good storm. If I had a flash to 3" of paste with 60kt winds and Hubbdave got a foot...cool by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Parallel GFS trended toward stronger slower fwiw - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is pretty cold too at 72h...that would be interesting. Wish we could see 84h. Truewx or weathermodels should have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Nice FV3 snowstorm for Virginia and the Carolinas next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Parallel GFS trended toward stronger slower fwiw - That's 5 models going with the earlier/stronger development at 12z today.....Can we get Dr. No to jump on that trend too??? I'll take wind driven rain verses the boring 42 degree chill we have today. 55-60 degrees, or let it Nor' Easter with Rain or Of course Snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Hmm.. Seeing the thing stall in the GOM like that between 84 and 90 hours... that's precarious - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Nice FV3 snowstorm for Virginia and the Carolinas next week That's the 06z run. 12z brings the gifts and fun for you Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, yoda said: That's the 06z run. 12z brings the gifts and fun for you Tuesday Well, at least there's excitement in the modeling and things to follow and track...we may strike out yet again like most of this season...but at least there's action in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 84hr Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Ukie is a brutal elevation snowstorm for CNE/NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ukie is a brutal elevation snowstorm for CNE/NNE Man 2" QPF on that for northern VT. Now I'm starting to just want a high Stake reading. Don't even care at home as I won't be in till Friday evening but give me like a 125" depth on Saturday morning up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Man 2" QPF on that for northern VT. Now I'm starting to just want a high Stake reading. Don't even care at home as I won't be in till Friday evening but give me like a 125" depth on Saturday morning up top. You have the entire forum behind you rooting for the elusive 10 foot stake reading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: You have the entire forum behind you rooting for the elusive 10 foot stake reading. Only if there's a 20" stalled hydro event on April 10 - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Is there a left goal post regarding how far west this could track I see the BTV WRF going from Bridgeport to essentially HIE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You have the entire forum behind you rooting for the elusive 10 foot stake reading. In a list of things Will don't care about.... . Like I said yesterday you guys would rather monitor bouy obs off trash island than snow depths in the mountains. But c'mon it's got a decent period of record for 4kft. Certainly not enough though for many to root for so they can watch a wind swept rainstorm outside their windows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: In a list of things Will don't care about.... . Like I said yesterday you guys would rather monitor bouy obs off trash island than snow depths in the mountains. But c'mon it's got a decent period of record for 4kft. Certainly not enough though for many to root for so they can watch a wind swept rainstorm outside their windows. I'll root for it, if we can get China style flooding later in April. Subaru Outbacks everywhere bobbing up and down the Winooski River. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: In a list of things Will don't care about.... . Like I said yesterday you guys would rather monitor bouy obs off trash island than snow depths in the mountains. But c'mon it's got a decent period of record for 4kft. Certainly not enough though for many to root for so they can watch a wind swept rainstorm outside their windows. I would def find more interest in it if I was skiing a lot this year....but I haven't been. But yeah, I'm def not sacrificing a shot at a paste job so that the snow depth can go from 110 inches to 125 inches on a mountain 3-4 hours away from me. In the end, we're prob not getting much anyway down here...you'll get at least big upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: 84hr Ukie That is dam close here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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