jbenedet Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just an observation, but the trending/evolution of this reminds me somewhat of the bomb the central/western US saw last week. *Def not referencing this in terms of sensible weather impacts—only model guidance trends and overall synoptic look. I think the trend west and earlier complete phase is real and continues. Leaning towards possibility we see something really wound up (sub 980) but right on the coast of SNE or the Northern Mid Atlantic. Not ruling out big snows for the far interior and most of NNE just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 0z runs blew so the we move on posts soothe the depression until we undelude ourselves we don’t care at 1230-2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 11:09 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: The lack of cold air is the biggest issue . We see a modeled 978 just E of cape and ORH as is 5c at 925 (at 6z) Friday . I was deflated when i read that . Expand Head up to PF land for the upslope show, looks pretty snowy across the N Greens as this departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 11:12 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Head up to PF land for the upslope show, looks pretty snowy across the N Greens as this departs. Expand Meh , if its a monster upslope I’d consider. I want to see over 1” of upslope QPF to consider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Looks like the fv3 gfs might have another feather to stick in it’s cap. Had the right idea of a hugger. Definitely seems like it has improved in the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Next week is more text book, if you will. Good airmass, system moving across country. Just need to make sure PV to north (which is sort of the result of this system Thursday night), doesn't pork us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 11:17 AM, Hazey said: Looks like the fv3 gfs might have another feather to stick in it’s cap. Had the right idea of a hugger. Definitely seems like it has improved in the last month. Expand It's got a lot more work to do, including it's thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 My fiancé and I are scheduled to close on our house next week... keep any and all storms away around that time. Another headache we don’t need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 11:27 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My fiancé and I are scheduled to close on our house next week... keep any and all storms away around that time. Another headache we don’t need Expand Congrats on the house Brett! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 11:27 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My fiancé and I are scheduled to close on our house next week... keep any and all storms away around that time. Another headache we don’t need Expand Congs.. Taunton? We closed last October.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 11:18 AM, CoastalWx said: Next week is more text book, if you will. Good airmass, system moving across country. Just need to make sure PV to north (which is sort of the result of this system Thursday night), doesn't pork us. Expand I’m sure it will. Anecdotally, I recall far too many winters that ended with our friends in the MA getting one last significant snow while we were sunny and 36F with a stiff breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 11:19 AM, CoastalWx said: It's got a lot more work to do, including it's thermals. Expand Oh I agree. Thermals are garbage but then what model has perfected that? It does get credit for track from like 6 days out. Most other models had nothing or congrats Flemish cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 What does the 6,000 hr forecast show? That should take us into the Fall. There might be something to follow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 11:19 AM, CoastalWx said: It's got a lot more work to do, including it's thermals. Expand Its got better warm nose representation than the op lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 11:09 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: 0z runs blew so the we move on posts soothe the depression until we undelude ourselves we don’t care at 1230-2pm Expand Why are you depressed? It's Spring and the previously modeled "snowstorm" was a 1/10000 chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 11:18 AM, CoastalWx said: Next week is more text book, if you will. Good airmass, system moving across country. Just need to make sure PV to north (which is sort of the result of this system Thursday night), doesn't pork us. Expand Meh. It's done. On 3/19/2019 at 11:27 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My fiancé and I are scheduled to close on our house next week... keep any and all storms away around that time. Another headache we don’t need Expand Congratulations! Where are the new digs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 11:34 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Congs.. Taunton? We closed last October.. Expand Yeah, he'll still be in Taunton, but its on the other side from me. He's basically on Raynham/Norton line. LOL, I just did the driving directions. It's 12 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 12:26 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, he'll still be in Taunton, but its on the other side from me. He's basically on Raynham/Norton line. LOL, I just did the driving directions. It's 12 miles away. Expand Jesus. Can't get any farther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 12:31 PM, CoastalWx said: Jesus. Can't get any farther. Expand Nope, maybe another mile or 2. Taunton is a deceivingly geographically large City. 48 square miles. Can take 20-25 minutes to cross town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 11:43 AM, NorEastermass128 said: I’m sure it will. Anecdotally, I recall far too many winters that ended with our friends in the MA getting one last significant snow while we were sunny and 36F with a stiff breeze. Expand Can you name more than 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 12:38 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Nope, maybe another mile or 2. Taunton is a deceivingly geographically large City. 48 square miles. Can take 20-25 minutes to cross town. Expand PYM is like that, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 I'm changing my tires over on Friday so you can all but lock in a big one next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 9:55 AM, dendrite said: Gotta love this winter. A coastal track over SE MA and it’s rain up into much of NNE. This was a pretty good antecedent airmass, but there’s just too much time for it to get flooded out. Expand ...Or moderated out ... but yeah, agreed in principle. It's past the Ides of March. It's like ...what'd we expect would happen to an air mass that's suffering insolation under open sky ...which other than nuisance, that's been the case ... open sky lasing It's like comparing 'Ali to Tyson ... can't be done with exactitude. But, intuitively, take this same exact overall synoptic leading set of parameters and evolution and transport it all back in time to as little as a month ago and there's your -.5C isothermal event.... Having said that, ... my own experience in the spring with blue bomb climo is that they are almost always modeled to be +1 to even as much as +3 C isothermal in the NW arc of lows... then end up verifying 9::1 with 0C at every sigma through 800 mb and beyond. This strikes me as sort of similar to that - plausibly. I just put the 18z and 00z and 06z NAM's 850 mb progs and it was shaving fractions across those three cycles - perhaps atoning for the above tendency. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 12:46 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: PYM is like that, too. Expand Middleboro gets a runner up prize as well. All 3 of those places are quite large. In any case, next week is quite interesting. Although it is pushing late March, the airmass isn't what I am worried about. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 12:47 PM, DomNH said: I'm changing my tires over on Friday so you can all but lock in a big one next week. Expand was going to start removing snow equipment...will hold off till April 1st then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 12:46 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: PYM is like that, too. Expand Yeah, that's why it helps to know where reports come in for storms. All the Towns down here are enormous. Middleboro, Carver, Rochester, Lakeville, Freetown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 12:52 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, that's why it helps to know where reports come in for storms. All the Towns down here are enormous. Middleboro, Carver, Rochester, Lakeville, Freetown. Expand They figure only so many people per cranbery bog, so what the hell, clump 'em all together lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 cmc would be ideal for next week. But I’ve had to call the national guard to remove all the fv3 and cmc snows this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 11:14 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Meh , if its a monster upslope I’d consider. I want to see over 1” of upslope QPF to consider Expand Yeah it will need more residence time to get 1" QPF but for the global models like GFS and EURO to show the QPF they do is a big signal. Get that into range of the meso-scale models and my gut says the global models are under-doing the QPF. We've talked about this in the past, but upslope in the spring and fall can be surprisingly moist QPF bombs with more available moisture. Not a bad look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 11:18 AM, CoastalWx said: Next week is more text book, if you will. Good airmass, system moving across country. Just need to make sure PV to north (which is sort of the result of this system Thursday night), doesn't pork us. Expand Mm... the the modulating influence of old sol is probably going to taint the thicknesses a little but ... otherwise - sure. Thing is, I don't fully believe the models really integrate the daily flux changes of irradiation ... there right way. It'a a sinusoidal integral.... i.e., slow at first, accelerates, then decelerates then the decline rate of change does the same behavior in the negative direction - perennially. Modeler's (duh) have that embedded in the model physics ( I mean... of course -right?) ...still, we see this all the time this time of year, two battles going on: one is where the thickness overall get neutralized more than the models prove they are capable of assessing out in the middle/extended ranges. Everything tends to bust on the warm side from synoptics to MOS ...however subtle or gross that is observable relative to all situations. the other, if a system still has a cold (enough) core, it has to be more and more of the leg work .. dynamic/systemically reliant to get things flipped over this late in the spring. It seems like those two arguments counter on the surface but they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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