dendrite Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't weight the ens as heavily inside of 96 hours in a rapdily evolving situation...but, yea. Eh...it’s still 3-4d out and this isn’t a GFS vs GEFS drop in resolution. The EPS members are pretty high res. I’d consider it a bit of a flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2019 Author Share Posted March 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Eh...it’s still 3-4d out and this isn’t a GFS vs GEFS drop in resolution. The EPS members are pretty high res. I’d consider it a bit of a flag. Yea, a bit..but if the entire guidance cluster is still adjusting, that becomes pretty irrelevent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, a bit..but if the entire guidance cluster is still adjusting, that becomes pretty irrelevent. Being near the extreme of 51 members seems relevant to me...adjusting or not. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It does look like the op euro is in the most agressive side of the eps solution envelope...doesnt give much confidence to solution much better. I think there is a subversive sort of value to that being the case ... It hearkens to the extreme physical sensitivity in that evolution ... how (probably) decimals are driving the difference - yet another way to say that ... values finer than even the superior meshed guidance types. ...Maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 EPS mean snow map...the EPS definitely don't have the QPF bomb the OP had. CAR will likely be adding to their seasonal totals though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2019 Author Share Posted March 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Being near the extreme of 51 members seems relevant to me...adjusting or not. We’ll see. We will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Some members all over. Given the trends, I certainly would entertain something a bit more siggy. Is it likely, no....but given the origins of the players on the field and what not...we watch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Which one of those is the op? The 973 just east of ACK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Those 985mb members slamming into the SE Coast would be fun with the full moon tides. Slosh slosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 I'm just hoping to get 6" at the Loaf to cover the ice after Sat/Sun re-freeze.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Nam partying in Ron Washington’s basement at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Which one of those is the op? The 973 just east of ACK? The control seems very different than the op on wxbell. Its a bit strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 LOL. Nam doing nam things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nam partying in Ron Washington’s basement at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Pete B. is really hitting the Euro hard. Rainy and warm with the coastal now for Thursday. Not sure if that's a good or bad thing that he's onboard tbh. He did basically say that all options are on the table right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nam partying in Ron Washington’s basement at 18z. Looked to be trying to sniff what the euro was selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 EPS tend to usually be behind the curve in a rapidly trending system (I.e. op hugs the coast after a bunch of scrapers but EPS is only slightly better than scrapers)...the problem is it is hard to tell if the system of rapidly trending or just a one or two run blitz before backing off. I think the next couple cycles will be quite telling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 NAM stalling the system down south long enough to scour out all the cold air, with the 850 0°C line almost to the Canadian, VT, NH border, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: NAM stalling the system down south long enough to scour out all the cold air, with the 850 0°C line almost to the Canadian, VT, NH border, lol. I guess it's just another scenario on the table. Then again, it is the 84hr NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 ICON, Ukie, and Frenchy are pretty similar at 96hr and well east of the euro op. Guess we’ll see around 8pm what the 18z euro has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Lol just saw the CMC. A 958 low and a 1032 high. That'd be windier than Rusty after a can of Beeferino. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: ICON, Ukie, and Frenchy are pretty similar at 96hr and well east of the euro op. Guess we’ll see around 8pm what the 18z euro has. Chicken Coop Crusher incoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: ICON, Ukie, and Frenchy are pretty similar at 96hr and well east of the euro op. Guess we’ll see around 8pm what the 18z euro has. And the JMA had nothing, except to keep 850 below 0°C for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 The whole longwave pattern on the GFS is looking more amplified through 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 She comin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Harv is leaning wet right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Gfs might be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Harv is leaning wet right now We lean with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 I think the 18z GFS May get a clue this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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