78Blizzard Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is a bit interesting at D5...wide right but not by a lot. It looks a bit west of yesterday's 12z run. Plenty of time for more tics west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: While I haven’t been running the model scores, the FV3 has had tons of fake news cyclones in the day 6+ timeframe. I know it’s day 5 now, but man it’s gone full weenie so many times before. It’s a bit scary to think it takes the place of the current GFS as we know it. Indeed, but usually those false depictions disappear after a run or two. It has depicted this coastal low for at least 8 runs in a row, with generally increasing intensity. As Tip says, it'll make the bust all the more egregious. or could it be...? Nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 minute ago, apm said: Indeed, but usually those false depictions disappear after a run or two. It has depicted this coastal low for at least 8 runs in a row, with generally increasing intensity. As Tip says, it'll make the bust all the more egregious. or could it be...? Nah. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: While I haven’t been running the model scores, the FV3 has had tons of fake news cyclones in the day 6+ timeframe. I know it’s day 5 now, but man it’s gone full weenie so many times before. It’s a bit scary to think it takes the place of the current GFS as we know it. Yeah ... right. Ha. If one is mired in the obsession teetering on addiction ...rocking with bloodshot withdraw sweats and that is your only salvation ? ...my god you're in a world of hurt. Euro's about to come out and I'm sure it will make a run at 80 F with a west wind - sometimes the road to recovery is cold turkey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2019 Author Share Posted March 17, 2019 Hopefully the luck of the Irish will lead the euro to a medium range pot of gold today.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 39 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'd sacrifice an entire seasons snowfall for that to verify. I hope it does, I would love to be raking and seeding lawn while you are bemoaning and endless slow melt and mud. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Diving s/w looks a little more stout thru 18z Monday Another potential thing to watch is the interaction with the s/w over Montana / Wyoming... the FV3 has minimal interaction and so our diving s/w continues under the trough to the east coast vs. 0z (less so 6z) Euro runs have much more interaction and our critical diving s/w gets delayed in a closed H5 low over Nebraska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Diving s/w looks a little more stout thru 18z Monday Another potential thing to watch is the interaction with the s/w over Montana / Wyoming... the FV3 has minimal interaction and so our diving s/w shoots under the trough to the east coast vs. 0z (less so 6z) Euro runs have much more interaction and our critical diving s/w gets delayed in a closed H5 low over Nebraska 12Z still tucking that first wave back under the ridge, but not like the 00Z did. Part of it ejects out w/ the northern stream wave, which is diving considerably farther SW into the Lakes this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Euro not quite biting but it's close enough to keep an eye on. That's a good meridional flow...if a little less energy gets buried southwest into the plains then i think we see something pop on that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 One eye on the models, the other one on baseball.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro not quite biting but it's close enough to keep an eye on. That's a good meridional flow...if a little less energy gets buried southwest into the plains then i think we see something pop on that setup. Agreed, if the usual Euro baby steps continue, it's fairly easy to see how the timing of waves could work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 12Z still tucking that first wave back under the ridge, but not like the 00Z did. Part of it ejects out w/ the northern stream wave, which is diving considerably farther SW into the Lakes this run. Yeah you could see this run failing early on, at least in an outcome similar to the FV3... compare at Wed 12z: the s/w (which on the FV3 is responsible for Mar 21-22) gets squashed under the ridge and is hung back over Nebraska, whereas on the FV3 it's already to Missouri/Indiana and trekking towards the coast What's interesting as you point out is the trough dives much farther SW into the Lakes... if this continues, we could still get a big hit with slightly different timing than the FV3 (for example, energy diving through Lakes phasing with the hung back energy hung emerging from Nebraska) Not much confidence, but the upper level setup definitely warrants watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 I’m selling on that model. I just want to use my grill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m selling on that model. I just want to use my grill. Second that. Would be something if that model sniffs this one out before most everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Funny.. it tries to do with the latter system what the parallel GFS does with the first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2019 Author Share Posted March 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Second that. Would be something if that model sniffs this one out before most everything else. Hey, JMA sniffed Feb 2006.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 That’s some cold just over the border for the later system. That seems to be the next thing to keep an eye on besides later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Not just FV3... CMC had it 0z Mar 13 run and also before I think... Icon had a couple hits... this would be a coup for all the ignored deplorable models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 29 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Not just FV3... CMC had it 0z Mar 13 run and also before I think... Icon had a couple hits... this would be a coup for all the ignored deplorable models Heh... I don't know if one should include a model in this that happened to 'spray' a interesting solution or two before returning back to some other variant idea ... The impetus behind tracking the FV3' is that it's been consistent. It would be almost impossible to separate their chaos from a model bias either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Not much showing up on the EPS for Thursday/Friday but early next week is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s some cold just over the border for the later system. That seems to be the next thing to keep an eye on besides later this week. Regardless of how the storm issues do or do not play out, those are 2 very nasty late season cold slugs coming into southeastern Canada this upcoming weekend and then again the middle of next week... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, FXWX said: Regardless of how the storm issues do or do not play out, those are 2 very nasty late season cold slugs coming into southeastern Canada this upcoming weekend and then again the middle of next week... They seem to be stabbing cold shots that roll out quick if one uses the Euro... Like the first rolls out in 24 hours ...raising regional 850s from some -15 C day six, all the way to + 2 by the beginning of day seven... and with west wind in that look it's headed for the mid to high 60s. I've actually seen that look in the autumn before ironically - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 EPS shows potential beyond 3/27-3/28 as well. Not quite time to stick a fork in the snow threats yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Not much showing up on the EPS for Thursday/Friday but early next week is interesting. Things will turn around in 10 days.............................................................................................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS shows potential beyond 3/27-3/28 as well. Not quite time to stick a fork in the snow threats yet. Ha... never is until Easter really.. I know what you mean tho - relative to this season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: They seem to be stabbing cold shots that roll out quick if one uses the Euro... Like the first rolls out in 24 hours ...raising regional 850s from some -15 C day six, all the way to + 2 by the beginning of day seven... and with west wind in that look it's headed for the mid to high 60s. I've actually seen that look in the autumn before ironically - Yep; angle of attack into southeast Canada and the westerly component does indeed suggest it will not hang around; big 24-hour flip if the cold does make it into parts of nrn New England; particularly Maine. Would be more interesting if the modeled flow was displaced ~300-500 miles to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, FXWX said: Yep; angle of attack into southeast Canada and the westerly component does indeed suggest it will not hang around; big 24-hour flip if the cold does make it into parts of nrn New England; particularly Maine. Would be more interesting if the modeled flow was displaced ~300-500 miles to the west? Oh we wouldn't be expressing any consternation over what's going to happen at 130 hours if that were the case - we'd be counting up SNE's corrected season snow deficits ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m selling on that model. I just want to use my grill. C'mon bro we're supposed to live in the snowbelt....time to live up to our reputation for once. They'll be plenty of time to smoke beers and grill soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Oh we wouldn't be expressing any consternation over what's going to happen at 130 hours if that were the case - we'd be counting up SNE's corrected season snow deficits No doubt! As much as I am ready for spring, that type of setup with the potency of the upper dynamics & the nature of that air mass would have me saying, "ok, lets go out with a true bang!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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