CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Are you typing that to me ...? I was just making a statement in general btw - I wasn't addressing any particular concepts or post over the last pages... ( just in case..). I mean patterns of favorable and less favorability come and go - they don't all produce, where some do that really shouldn't ... as you well know. I think of it as overlapping probability curves ... One side has a mass of events and a few sporadic outliers sprinkle into the lower probability side. I did mention your name but it still applied to the general idea. No no. Sorry for not clarifying. I was speaking about my reference to the energy buried into the Rockies. That’s different from what Brian is referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Angus said: I saw the same # refererenced on the Wildcat website which surprised me. I always say there is some rough equivalency between Wildcat and Sugarloaf and Sugarloaf is 210ish so far. Didn't Alex say he is at165"? I'm just short of 160. The resort reports 178-215 season to date. It's a bit low BUT Wildcat doesn't get nearly as much upslope. They do however have amazing retention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 We snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: 6z euro made sizeable changes too. as did the 06Z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, purduewx80 said: as did the 06Z EPS Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: as did the 06Z EPS Yeah just saw. I mean if it’s going to be this cold, might as well make it fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No no. Sorry for not clarifying. I was speaking about my reference to the energy buried into the Rockies. That’s different from what Brian is referring to. Gotcha.. . Yeah... Seems to be folks don't like phasing .. They seem to rely upon get out of the way, or 'kicker' ...one or the other. But you can't zygote without two and sometimes that happens. It's been harder to get purer phases the last several years. 2015 was rare in that the N/stream got so dominant that we ended up on the arctic side of the SPV jet and that sort of cast an illusion of the same thing - interesting, but otherwise, phasing has been difficult. I'm convinced it is endemic to flow speed (and we've had a surplus of that over the recent winters, no doubt!) though. It's very difficult to phase in what we call "gradient looks" - is just another way to define a flow that is velocity saturated. Need a team of grad students to roll up sleeves and hit the chalk-board on the subject matter but I'm almost certain there is a target proportionality where the the N/S motion of the N/stream has to be such and such with respect to the W/E motion of the southern stream or else bi-pass results. I think the diving N/stream in subsuming has to 'catch-up' to the W-S wave displacement of the S/stream. If the flow is very fast, the S wave translation outpaces and only tickles a phase and either ends up a "hook low" for NS or ejected/bi-passed altogether. S/W displacement is a different speed than the winds blowing around them - but the two are related. The former tends to also speed up .. particularly in the southern branch. S/Ws in gradient looks move from California to England at seemingly time dilation speeds... geesh. If the western end an N/stream is moving SSE ... it should be intuitive to see/sense that the 'timing' of their interaction becomes a delicate matter of actually getting the miracle of the sperm into the ege. ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah just saw. I mean if it’s going to be this cold, might as well make it fun. Yup. And it's the time of the year where it'll vaporize pretty quickly too. I don't have to worry about 2 weeks of an iced over driveway now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Got back from the mid-atlantic last night. Very solid dusting last night about 1/4 of an inch to cover up a dirty snow. Barely made it up my dirt road the mud is so deep. Never seen it like that I'm going to make a drone video later and posted it in the Northern New England group later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 32F with -SHSN. Wintery morning. My wife is sad about it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashFreeze Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 30° and light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Yea... I’ll buy a Brady jersey and wear it every sunday if the son of a gfs scores a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 it really is trying that ICON model stepped interestingly - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it really is trying that ICON model stepped interestingly - Several models trying to give a glimmer of hope, can't quite call it a trend until it is an actual trend but let's see what happens as we get better sampling as you alluded to yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 The icon makes so many run to run changes its almost unusable. Still, this is the period i thought had some potential a few days and still do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Several models trying to give a glimmer of hope, can't quite call it a trend until it is an actual trend but let's see what happens as we get better sampling as you alluded to yesterday. Yeeeah not to quibble over semantics either but I'd say this qualifies as a trend. It's early in said trend and as trends go ...could stop and collapse and etc.. But, we have a more than cycle involved in this. I'm actually kind of hoping for a FV3' sort of coup. Tho I suspect the convective nature of it's 00z and 06z runs in particular could stand some modulating ... the fact that the model is supposed to be replacing the GFS operational at some point over the next while here ...we'd kinda sorta like to see it nail something and doing so ahead of the others would be an added incentive/confidence boost. T If something should come to ... ah, not just pass but impact, it would be still understandable for the Euro's wheel house in that these players don't really interact until beyond D4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: The icon makes so many run to run changes its almost unusable. Still, this is the period i thought had some potential a few days and still do. Yeah I'm with ya - I wasn't foisting trophies for that model ... I get what you mean. Particularly the the overall sentiment about this "somewhat" relaxed/meridional flow type being more conducive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 The GFS is going to have to try to deliver with the trailing 2nd potent s/w here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Yeah...not gonna happen. Looks like it loses/buries some of the energy in the deep south and we end up with something weaker up here before the trailing s/w pushes through. idk...still looks like plenty of potential to me despite the messy looks. Of course messy hasn't gotten us very far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Is there a strong HP for this potential threat? Being so late in the season and climo kicking in, it doesn’t look terribly cold in SNE during said period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Is there a strong HP for this potential threat? Being so late in the season and climo kicking in, it doesn’t look terribly cold in SNE during said period. The antecedent airmass is plenty cold enough for most for a potential late blooming system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: The antecedent airmass is plenty cold enough for most for a potential late blooming system. For most huh... who are the have nots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said: For most huh... who are the have nots? I'm not going to get sucked into that question at this point...lol If it ends up a weak, strung-out mess then maybe there's mixed showers down in SNE, but if that's the case, who cares about ptype, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 41 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea... I’ll buy a Brady jersey and wear it every sunday if the son of a gfs scores a coup. On queue FV3 lost it too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 In fv3 you trust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 GFS 15 slid east but still crushes ORH east, you see where its trended though, not biting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Regarding that elusive appropriately timed / strong enough shortwave in the otherwise favorable setup with meridionally amplified flow along with some relaxation off the northeast coast... That shortwave responsible for Mar 21-22 should be riding up the ridge and entering the BC coast in the next 24 hours... not sure how much the density of data input changes over land, but we *could* be seeing a bunch of models abruptly jump towards a better solution today into Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 no on the GGEM too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: On queue FV3 lost it too far east. It crushes EMA...so now it’s more right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: In fv3 you trust? More blind hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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