ORH_wxman Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I can totally see something emerging with little notice... I said that like Thursday, I think. But at this point, I'm checked out unless it actually does. Yeah I'm definitely not waiting for model guidance to come out like we were doing early this month. I'm in the "check in on the models twice a day" mode just to see if anything is getting interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 The idea of "unforeseen yet plausible short notice correction" was mentioned 10 days ago when it was painfully obvious then that this +PNA/ concomitant +PNAP period was depicted to evolve unusually devoid of S/W to take advantage and amplify. Why that is/was the case in this journey over the last week is odd, but such is life. Right now there a weak impulse almost indistinguishable being ejected out of the NE Pac... For the last couple of days it's been more detected by the Euro and some off-beat guidance types (actually) as arcing the NW Territories and that continues. I'm not sure if data sparseness/assimilation idiosyncrasies will suddenly atone for some dramatic improvement of that feature as it rounds the ridge and dives in ..but, should it do so it's a decent guess that the next many sampling cycles might pick that up. We'll see... The impetus there is that a stronger feature there would transitively induce more latter phasing... given the overall circulation, you're gonna need that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 gee ...didn't mean to kill the thread with that ... anyway, the UKMET with an impressive shift toward classic west Atlantic spring gale ... In fact, not an intrepid journey there to become a juggernaut if only N/stream were to dump anything in there instead of just dangling like a giant mammata bulb - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 We just need the next 6-8 weeks to be backdoor-hell to make this disaster of a winter complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16, 2019 Author Share Posted March 16, 2019 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm definitely not waiting for model guidance to come out like we were doing early this month. I'm in the "check in on the models twice a day" mode just to see if anything is getting interesting. Looks as though most are of a like mindset judging by the post frequency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: We just need the next 6-8 weeks to be backdoor-hell to make this disaster of a winter complete. That would be a disaster Spring, winter is long over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Pinkham Notch with only 143"? Seems low for 2,000ft elevation. Man the NEK of VT got buried this season with those areas above 175" on the season...they are outside the main upslope zone too. Brewery of the Year Hill Farmsted with 188" in Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Snowing like a deform band all the sudden with rapid accumulation... air is full of huge snow growth flakes. Temps just above the H85 level are in the DGZ and that's where the lift is in these lake/orographic bands. Good eastward propagation of under-the-radar fluffy snow on the 2.45 scan... based on what is falling here. The Spine must be getting a good amount of fake snow...stacked arms of dendrites entraining a high percentage of air for sure. 1.5" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: It’s cool that someone from here in Waterbury made the top five list, but I’m not sure if they should have. If Mt Washington is on there for NH, why wouldn’t they list the Mt. Mansfield or Jay Peak co-op sites from here in VT? I’m not sure if the Jay Peak one is still active, but the Mansfield one definitely is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 hour ago, J.Spin said: It’s cool that someone from here in Waterbury made the top five list, but I’m not sure if they should have. If Mt Washington is on there for NH, why wouldn’t they list the Mt. Mansfield or Jay Peak co-op sites from here in VT? I’m not sure if the Jay Peak one is still active, but the Mansfield one definitely is. They only report depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Fv3 with a solid 1-2 feet for SNE next Friday lol. Has absolutely no support though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2019 Author Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Sn0waddict said: Fv3 with a solid 1-2 feet for SNE next Friday lol. Has absolutely no support though Euro looks worse than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 6z gfs tried to get interesting while the fv3 went wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z gfs tried to get interesting while the fv3 went wild. GFS15 alone on an island sending out love messages in a bottle in vain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: GFS15 alone on an island sending out love messages in a bottle in vain. More than likely, but that’s a sharp ridge with a lot of meridional flow. I’d still keep an eye on it. One also could see there may be another risk in the 8-10 day timeframe too. We continue with a Yukon Ridge in the 11-15 day and while it doesn’t really connect to bitter cold like it does in January (hell get the sun out and it will be in the 50s) it does provide a potential source region nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Nice controlled dry melt just what the Dr ordered. Week of sun low dews drying up the mud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angus Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 11 hours ago, powderfreak said: Pinkham Notch with only 143"? Seems low for 2,000ft elevation. I saw the same # refererenced on the Wildcat website which surprised me. I always say there is some rough equivalency between Wildcat and Sugarloaf and Sugarloaf is 210ish so far. Didn't Alex say he is at165"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Son of a gfs dumped 200” of virtual snows on sne this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice controlled dry melt just what the Dr ordered. Week of sun low dews drying up the mud. Most important weather story this week, much needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Hey it snowed enough to cover up the dog messes int he backyard last night. Light flurry now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 6z euro made sizeable changes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Did anyone else get snow overnight? Woke up to a solid coating here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Did anyone else get snow overnight? Woke up to a solid coating here. -SHSN here just before 5am...not even a dusting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 That kicker plays the turd in the punch bowl on the op GFS. FV3 has more wave spacing and says no problem. 120hr both storm related shortwaves are just off LI except the GFS has the kicker entering w PA while the FV3 has it over Lake MI. Haven't seen the 6z EC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: That kicker plays the turd in the punch bowl on the op GFS. FV3 has more wave spacing and says no problem. 120hr both storm related shortwaves are just off LI except the GFS has the kicker entering w PA while the FV3 has it over Lake MI. Haven't seen the 6z EC though. The 00z EC was retrograding the energy in question into the Rockies lol. 6z got some of this further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Gave this some thought last night ... not that any of this really matters in the grand scheme of our collective war against reality - But not getting a storm between today and the 24th (or so) of the month, really shouldn't be deemed as an operational blindness. I think the fact that these parallel GFS operational runs are illustrating these dubious convectively powered cold core outre physics sap-sucker lows that people only fail to contain giddiness for ... speaks volumes to the native numerical instability. But that instability IS the potential of this pattern, whether it storm is born or not. The problem always has been the dearth of impulses (S/W's) timed, ... a dilemma to amplitude that's been there all along. Since the aroma of strong +PNA first began painting on operational run depictions ... days and days ago ... that's been the plight. Incredible "lead the horse to water, can't make 'em drink" pattern. Wasted potential... Mensa kid on opiate addiction ... any metaphor where destiny and latency part company in sad way. Be that as it may ... Scott's right ... As we've repeatedly hammered (too) going back over a week's worth of the failure to produce a good modeling cinema for the users here ... so long as the +PNA is verifying and that western ridge flexes as it is ( now ) verifying, you just have to wait it out and either let it waste away, or... perhaps come to fruition from less typical lead antics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 That’s completely separate from what Brian is talking about. 00z euro was a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s completely separate from what Brian is talking about. 00z euro was a mess. Are you typing that to me ...? I was just making a statement in general btw - I wasn't addressing any particular concepts or post over the last pages... ( just in case..). I mean patterns of favorable and less favorability come and go - they don't all produce, where some do that really shouldn't ... as you well know. I think of it as overlapping probability curves ... One side has a mass of events and a few sporadic outliers sprinkle into the lower probability side. I did mention your name but it still applied to the general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 26 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Did anyone else get snow overnight? Woke up to a solid coating here. 2" on the cars and trees at home, 4-5" up here at the ski resort base. Looks like winter again covering the dirty spring banks that arrived the past couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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