weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, tamarack said: Worse at the other end of the time zone. For, say, South Bend, IN you could add about an hour to all those times. With family in both HI and Japan, neither of which use DST, year-round standard time would be nicer for us, especially for real-time communications. On another topic, 1995-96 is my 2nd snowiest winter since moving from Fort Kent, but I'd grade it no higher than B/B-, thanks mainly to the repeated thaws (especially in January) that turned good pack to icy messes several times, but also to watching the biggest storm go OTS with little impact at home, and the overall lack of either blockbuster snows or extended cold. Good winter, but only 3rd or 4th best of my 13 in Gardiner. OMG...twilight there around the time of the solstice is 9:58 PM CDT. Nautical twilight is 10:41 PM...jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 If they have to muck with the time change, why not split the difference and just be 1/2 hour ahead all the time? There are parts of the world already in 1/2 hour zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Meh, looks questionable too. Hopefully we are done. I'm ready. Yesterday felt great, let's dry things out a bit too...the mud is insane already and we still have a few inches to melt yet...unless next week produces a blockbuster, let's just move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 LAMP isn't a bad option either in the near term, but as my boy Purduewx said...it can be an issue with the GFS based product. HRRR cig product is decent, and obviously soundings are still key. Beware the NAM always loves to saturate the lower 500ft though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 52 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That's what I was leaning towards There are some cases where it's really hard (although perhaps not for those with much more experience and knowledge) to get a handle. One thing I've been wanting to do is do a daily verification of forecasts and take notes on MOS output and other data so I can really improve skills with models and which seem to handle certain situations better. (Even including Euro). I had created a spreadsheet to do this, but its too much for me to do. I was directed towards this incredible spreadsheet a meteorologist at NWS Corpis Christi created. This thing is incredible. You put in a station code and the program runs and collects MOS data, certain bufkit data, and NWS forecasts. I've reached out with her to assist with tailoring such a thing since I know zero coding and I'm going to pay her pretty solidly. Was looking at ceiling heights for MEM tomorrow night and there was a big difference between NAM and GFS and my determination was due to the slightly higher dewpoints on the NAM. Looking at everything though MEM should easily get into the lower 60's for dews. GFS MOS only has upper 50's which doesn't reflect model output at all actually. ECMWF vis/cigs are some of the best products out there. The NSSL WRF visibility is great too, but it overproduces fog across snowpack. RAP/HRRR are also useful in the short-term. Climo/pattern recognition is probably the best tool of all though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 19 hours ago, dendrite said: 'Tis the season Asphalt would prevent that problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 24 minutes ago, tamarack said: Worse at the other end of the time zone. For, say, South Bend, IN you could add about an hour to all those times. With family in both HI and Japan, neither of which use DST, year-round standard time would be nicer for us, especially for real-time communications. On another topic, 1995-96 is my 2nd snowiest winter since moving from Fort Kent, but I'd grade it no higher than B/B-, thanks mainly to the repeated thaws (especially in January) that turned good pack to icy messes several times, but also to watching the biggest storm go OTS with little impact at home, and the overall lack of either blockbuster snows or extended cold. Good winter, but only 3rd or 4th best of my 13 in Gardiner. The state is still trying to get us to move to Atlantic time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LAMP isn't a bad option either in the near term, but as my boy Purduewx said...it can be an issue with the GFS based product. HRRR cig product is decent, and obviously soundings are still key. Beware the NAM always loves to saturate the lower 500ft though. It's insane how the NAM goes crazy with the saturation in the lowest 500'. It seems to love to do this for areas especially near bodies of water. 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: ECMWF vis/cigs are some of the best products out there. The NSSL WRF visibility is great too, but it overproduces fog across snowpack. RAP/HRRR are also useful in the short-term. Climo/pattern recognition is probably the best tool of all though. Thanks for that link! I just recently (from Ryan) discovered the HREF and didn't realize there was also this product. I love how it has the lighting product too. Climo/pattern recognition is going to be my key. Unfortunately for what I do short-term forecasts aren't necessarily helpful. The goal is to try and provide as much lead time as possible so I'm looking for areas of concerning weather multiple days out...which of course with fog and timing of thunderstorms that can be quite difficult to pin down. But my goal is with learning climo/pattern recognition that will improve skills in these areas outside of the "short-term". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 11 hours ago, FXWX said: Agree 110%... It will lead to a big push back from school districts and parents. I'm perfectly fine with the status quo... To be honest, I hate the thought of 2 pm for the Euro release; many of my wintertime school updates need to be fully out by 2 pm and I always want to get a at least a quick peak at the Euro before updating evening / overnight periods. By the time DST kicks in now during early/mid March winter forecasting stress is usually starting to wane so I can live with the current flip to DST but would hate it for the NOV-FEB period. Not that anyone asked but I'm not sure I understand (necessarily) why the modeling initialization has to be cow-tied to the movement of the clock in the first place ... Every reason I have ever heard sounds perfunctory if not knee-jerk replaying a familiar mantra of faux perceived limitation. I disagree - the world of technology is not a part of natural laws. We're not asking to change E=MC2 here ... It may be a pain in the collective ass for deterministic/operational weather forecasting to "re"wire the globe around something ...oh, gee, intelligent... Or, we can keep coming up with preclusively insurmountable excuses that when are put in the logic crucible they only purify to excuses to not change period. In general, there is a tendency ( I feel ..) for industrialized society "switch trippers" to trap their thinking inside of bounds of operation ...and when first suggestion for change materializes, that's impossible! No, there's no hand from god, or Quantum Mechanical principle in natural physics that says we can't call time whatever in the f we want. But perhaps this is a maverick talking Rewire the thing ... so that it's 7 am period... .Move the clocks all we want... you launch your f balloons and drop your sondes and program your satellites at that same numerical clock value, period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 I love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 I guess we've totally lost it....March disco no longer about the pattern, but about DST vs. AST. Even the mods are too tired to do anything about it. Not that I have anything intelligent to add about the weather. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I guess we've totally lost it....March disco no longer about the pattern, but about DST vs. AST. Even the mods are too tired to do anything about it. Not that I have anything intelligent to add about the weather. Hey sorry - but...you know, Brian said this to me a long time ago and it makes sense when dealing with people. Firstly, this is a leisure/social -media? There are rules, but we're not in the Military here. We're not in the sanitation management services of a medical complex, either. He said he likes to keep threads clean and on point during hurried/elevated times when it matters, but with the pattern relaxing and spring staring to clearly taint things toward tulip talk ... the posture is going to relax some. Plus, who cares 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Any updates on the 17th-24th window for a potential coastal? Ryan just posted the EURO ens mean, still a signal out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 If the flow of traffic is 80mph sometimes you have to just let it slide. 80mph at rush hour and I’ll pull you over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Any updates on the 17th-24th window for a potential coastal? Ryan just posted the EURO ens mean, still a signal out there... Last I knew, weak but "there" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Having said that .. The Euro was interesting at 00z.. Not so much for whether it would all go down as synoptically depicted nearing (the Equinox....) But, it does suggest there is some hope for those winter enthusiast interests that may be holding out for some sort of poetic ending. Obviously, it goes without saying..that's precarious, albeit subject to change, for being an impressive spring blue bomb. I do see rather abruptly over the last two days, spring's modulation of the hemisphere underway, tho. I suspect it's sort of muscling in and interfering with the previous evolution of the +PNA we were tracking. Hypothetical ... but it seems to me (and the Euro really illustrates this nicely) like winter bottles up (symbolic) and rotates up into the Maritime Canada up through Greenland by the end of the run, and that leaves/starts starving the PNA of gradient ... It's like we've been plagued by too much of the stuff all season... the flow relaxes? It relaxes too much! And the PNA circuitry just doesn't really get left with much to define that structure... so the collapsing ridge we see at the end of the run is merely because the foundation for it's anomaly disappears as a result. It's like spring is that lever on the bottom of an Etch-'n'-Sketch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: If the flow of traffic is 80mph sometimes you have to just let it slide. 80mph at rush hour and I’ll pull you over. Thanks Barney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 How mild will Thursday be inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Thanks Barney Fife?! Lol or Frank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: How mild will Thursday be inland ASH may low 50s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Just now, 512high said: ASH may low 50s? Heh, what happened to the warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Funny thing just happened, was checking the Sunday River Cam cuz my boys are there. Who skis up and we talk on the phone but JT. Lol he said they had 2 overnight , wind holds but conditions are perfect. 8 to 10 last 2 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, 512high said: ASH may low 50s? Mm... I think it could do better than that... I wouldn't be shocked to hang low 60s over rapidly dwindling snow pack at that latitude. It's rare to do that combination of temperature and snow of course, but...I suspect a warm boundary blasts through and typical warm sector lower DP will probably bust cloud products to high and we end up with just a near perfect heating scenario by 1pm snow pack or not. I've seen be 65 F with laze faire nape kisser breezes while people ski in shorts. Not so much up in cne proper... By the time you get much N of MHT ... the flow will have traversed enough vestigial cryo to have modulated lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Ya I knew it was more than my phone app temp of 53 in Nashua just wondering about 65 given 850’s , mixing and the snow cover is getting patchy in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Funny thing just happened, was checking the Sunday River Cam cuz my boys are there. Who skis up and we talk on the phone but JT. Lol he said they had 2 overnight , wind holds but conditions are perfect. 8 to 10 last 2 days. Jay reporting 12-15” of overnight upslope blower pow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Saw this coming a mile away, I knew today was gonna be sweet. Unfortunately didn’t have anyone to make the 9hr round trip journey with, so a missed opportunity. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Jay reporting 12-15” of overnight upslope blower pow... N greens are magic , nothing compares in east for totals . It’s a good year if someone in Maine or NH is within 100”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 I will take the over on low 50s for ASH Thursday. +7C with sun and S winds. I agree with Jon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: I will take the over on low 50s for ASH Thursday. +7C with sun and S winds. I agree with Jon. You can tell winter is about over, Dendritic warm temp talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Fife?! Lol or Frank Fife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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