dryslot Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 NCEP must be dragging its heals today with getting models out, 18z NAM ran late too and is just finishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 5 hours ago, dendrite said: It's been performing better as of late. Did the GGEM get an upgrade? Pretty high score for its standards. What's the FNO? The French? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: watch it turn into a two days at 52 with fast gray streets and mist, then refreeze with a storm missing to the south... Followed by a Lakes cutter ...Then, a big bomb on the charts that just before it happens...mysteriously vanishes because of the sun's normalizing power at this time of year. Sad trumpet end to the winter. I would not be shocked if this type of scenario occurred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 56 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: What's the FNO? The French? navgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: watch it turn into a two days at 52 with fast gray streets and mist, then refreeze with a storm missing to the south... Followed by a Lakes cutter ...Then, a big bomb on the charts that just before it happens...mysteriously vanishes because of the sun's normalizing power at this time of year. Sad trumpet end to the winter. This is the chaos I live for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: watch it turn into a two days at 52 with fast gray streets and mist, then refreeze with a storm missing to the south... Followed by a Lakes cutter ...Then, a big bomb on the charts that just before it happens...mysteriously vanishes because of the sun's normalizing power at this time of year. Sad trumpet end to the winter. 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I would not be shocked if this type of scenario occurred I would be shocked if this year doesn't go out with a bang, even if that means some anomalous 6" interior paste bomb in mid-April when Tip is toeing through the tulips to recover a lost disc golf driver. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I would be shocked if this year doesn't go out with a bang, even if that means some anomalous 6" interior paste bomb in mid-April when Tip is toeing through the tulips to recover a lost disc golf driver. We're due for a late season nuke in SNE (I'm talking like 12"+ over a decent area)...we've had some close calls but haven't quite gotten one post-March 20th in many years. Last year we had the close tease, ditto close teases in both 2013 and 2014 in late March. 2011 was a moderate storm on 3/31-4/1, 2016 was also a moderate storm...both didn't quite organize enough to be a true double digit bomb. Patriots Day 2007 was for NNE...we just got minor snowfall over the interior. March 30, 2001 might be the last one but that was only the northern section of SNE over the elevated interior. Anyone south of ORH got skunked. We probably have to go back to 1997 to qualify. That's crazy. We had big double digit events in 1996, 1987, 1984, and 1982 as well. We've been on a cold streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We're due for a late season nuke in SNE (I'm talking like 12"+ over a decent area)...we've had some close calls but haven't quite gotten one post-March 20th in many years. Last year we had the close tease, ditto close teases in both 2013 and 2014 in late March. 2011 was a moderate storm on 3/31-4/1, 2016 was also a moderate storm...both didn't quite organize enough to be a true double digit bomb. Patriots Day 2007 was for NNE...we just got minor snowfall over the interior. March 30, 2001 might be the last one but that was only the northern section of SNE over the elevated interior. Anyone south of ORH got skunked. We probably have to go back to 1997 to qualify. That's crazy. We had big double digit events in 1996, 1987, 1984, and 1982 as well. We've been on a cold streak. What was the date of the March bomb last year that we scored like 2'? I thought it was late March...must have just seemed that way after 75F in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, DomNH said: What was the date of the March bomb last year that we scored like 2'? I thought it was late March...must have just seemed that way after 75F in February. That was 3/13. The 2017 bomb was 3/14. So both were solidly into March but just not late March. We've had some big ones recently in March starting in 2013 but all of them were prior to 3/20. The Cape got a good one on 3/26/14 but almost nothing fell northwest of the Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We're due for a late season nuke in SNE (I'm talking like 12"+ over a decent area)...we've had some close calls but haven't quite gotten one post-March 20th in many years. Last year we had the close tease, ditto close teases in both 2013 and 2014 in late March. 2011 was a moderate storm on 3/31-4/1, 2016 was also a moderate storm...both didn't quite organize enough to be a true double digit bomb. Patriots Day 2007 was for NNE...we just got minor snowfall over the interior. March 30, 2001 might be the last one but that was only the northern section of SNE over the elevated interior. Anyone south of ORH got skunked. We probably have to go back to 1997 to qualify. That's crazy. We had big double digit events in 1996, 1987, 1984, and 1982 as well. We've been on a cold streak. If that’s the case then how overdue are we for a direct hit from a cane? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If that’s the case then how overdue are we for a direct hit from a cane? Long over due!! 5 yrs being in S FL I have a new appreciation of tropical systems. New Englanders for the most part are not prepared for a CAT 1 hit or greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If that’s the case then how overdue are we for a direct hit from a cane? Last one was Bob in '91. So we're almost going on 30 years. That's about as long as we get in the record. We did go 25 years between Donna (1960) and Gloria (1985) and while records a little bit worse before that, it's pretty likely that 1938 was the first hurricane strike in New England of the 20th century after an obscenely active late 1800s. But from a climo perspective, we've been in a real hurricane drought going back to the middle 20th century. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: We're due for a late season nuke in SNE (I'm talking like 12"+ over a decent area)...we've had some close calls but haven't quite gotten one post-March 20th in many years. Last year we had the close tease, ditto close teases in both 2013 and 2014 in late March. 2011 was a moderate storm on 3/31-4/1, 2016 was also a moderate storm...both didn't quite organize enough to be a true double digit bomb. Patriots Day 2007 was for NNE...we just got minor snowfall over the interior. March 30, 2001 might be the last one but that was only the northern section of SNE over the elevated interior. Anyone south of ORH got skunked. We probably have to go back to 1997 to qualify. That's crazy. We had big double digit events in 1996, 1987, 1984, and 1982 as well. We've been on a cold streak. I was reading a town history from the late 1800s. It included several June snow events plus a big freshet in 1869. i knew about the 1816 June snow but hadn’t been aware of any others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 7, 2019 Author Share Posted March 7, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: We're due for a late season nuke in SNE (I'm talking like 12"+ over a decent area)...we've had some close calls but haven't quite gotten one post-March 20th in many years. Last year we had the close tease, ditto close teases in both 2013 and 2014 in late March. 2011 was a moderate storm on 3/31-4/1, 2016 was also a moderate storm...both didn't quite organize enough to be a true double digit bomb. Patriots Day 2007 was for NNE...we just got minor snowfall over the interior. March 30, 2001 might be the last one but that was only the northern section of SNE over the elevated interior. Anyone south of ORH got skunked. We probably have to go back to 1997 to qualify. That's crazy. We had big double digit events in 1996, 1987, 1984, and 1982 as well. We've been on a cold streak. I'll bet we score late season and pickles sweats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 4 hours ago, dendrite said: navgem Ahhhh. Didn't know it had that abbreviation. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 0z NAM has a nice little front ender this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll bet we score late season and pickles sweats. 6”+ events for most in SNE I think are done this season...hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Just now, ineedsnow said: 0z NAM has a nice little front ender this weekend 84 hour NAM is nice...but it’s 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 52 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I was reading a town history from the late 1800s. It included several June snow events plus a big freshet in 1869. i knew about the 1816 June snow but hadn’t been aware of any others. I'm ready to work freshet of yore into my AFDs. But that event specifically still has some scars in the White Mountains (Tripyramids specifically). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 26 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Ahhhh. Didn't know it had that abbreviation. Thanks Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 11 hours ago, dryslot said: I see the 12z Fv3 is running and the GFS is not, Have they made the transition over now? FV3 will be running in parallel (indefinitely) to the GFS, but that transition is TBD. Don't expect to see it before April anyway. 11 hours ago, dendrite said: It's been performing better as of late. Did the GGEM get an upgrade? Pretty high score for its standards. Time to start locking the RGEM again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 48 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 0z NAM has a nice little front ender this weekend Most models have been straining to give the interior something wintery since Tuesday night so it's not an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 0z Canadian also looked a bit improved with wintery appeal for Sun/Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 The last three times I've gone to Florida in late march I've missed a decent snow storm. I think Will posted the years, I'm going in two weeks so expect a storm in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I was reading a town history from the late 1800s. It included several June snow events plus a big freshet in 1869. i knew about the 1816 June snow but hadn’t been aware of any others. October, 1869; Saxby's gale in that it was predicted by Saxby, a British naval officer, using calculations based on moon patterns. Aside from devastating gales from southern New England to the Maritimes (Where it made landfall as a full-fledged hurricane) its "freshet" caused widespread 55 flood type damage; for one taking out the mill that used to exist on the stream that flows through my property in Monson; and its winds taking down the steeple of the First Church in town; a feat repeated twice more thanks to the 38 Hurricane, and the 2011 tornado. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 7, 2019 Author Share Posted March 7, 2019 Man, 2.3/-1.8 Impressive March cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 7, 2019 Author Share Posted March 7, 2019 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 6”+ events for most in SNE I think are done this season...hope I am wrong. All you ever do is bet against snow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Currently 2.8F here in Enfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Currently 2.8F here in Enfield. Dang Smarch weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 1-3/2-4 front ender late Sat night/early Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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