March Disco

[SnowBrosForever]

38 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Rains to ME Sunday?

That will mess up my skiing plans. Please send it way out to sea. There may be some snow in that forecast, by the way...

[tamarack]

15 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

https://www.weather.gov/nerfc/hf_march_1936

 

http://www.newenglandhistoricalsociety.com/great-new-england-flood-1936/

Second greatest flood on the Sandy River (no '36 data for the Kennebec), with 38,600 CFS and 16.75', nearly 5' above flood stage.  1953 came within 5" of '36, then 1987 blew away all records in the Kennebec drainage.  The Sandy topped '36 by 2.5' and 12,500 CFS, Kennebec flow peaked at 232,000 CFS (tops recorded for any Maine river and more than twice any K'bec flow since), with the 34.5' in Augusta just slightly above the flood stage of 12'.  Six miles downstream in Gardiner, 1936 was a bit higher than '87, thanks to an ice jam at the Richmond bridge and Swan Island, another six miles downriver.  '87 had no ice issues, just a persistent, if not huge, snowpack, a week of 50s-60s, then 4-7" RA, mostly with temps 50+.

[ChasingFlakes]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Total meltdown to the resorts next week . Then another snower of two before spring for good

The whites stand a chance.

[alex]

46 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Rain of yore. 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-E5E8A0BA-E4DF-48BF-A2CB-F4E23281027C.pdf

Holy cow. That's one shitty month

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, alex said:

Holy cow. That's one shitty month

You lose some, you win some. 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-3E84BAFD-BA5A-44F6-8AE0-D25EF98277B2.pdf

[Dan76]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You lose some, you win some. 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-3E84BAFD-BA5A-44F6-8AE0-D25EF98277B2.pdf

164'' ?

[dendrite]

Just now, Dan76 said:

164'' ?

That was the depth.

[NeonPeon]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

That was the depth.

When they were able to dig out the station, apparently.

[backedgeapproaching]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That was the depth.

That depth is fascinating as its such a ridiculous outlier vs any other year. The next highest is like 75-76" or something if I recall.

[Typhoon Tip]

Pretty typical March series from the various guidance'  ... Early spring incarnate, with suggestions of wave space break downs and deeper cold plumes waning out to more vestigial layout of < 0C 850s ... some deeper pockets.  But really, these three days off 00z last night are the page turning there.  The entire region of the Canadian shield below ~ the 60th parallel is moderating substantially. 

It's hard to completely remove the loss of the -EPO as the reason why...  I suspect that's related, more so than no prior to the Ides of March - but... losing the cold load

Either way, the pattern looks very "bowling season" ...  with perhaps just a subtle lingering attempt to recommit to early polarward storm track/cutters.  That's funny - even in the absence of a pattern drive, the sore butting can't stop.

It's interesting to see the GGEM and GFS switch bias camps.. The GFS is so far west now as of 06z with the D6 system, that it tries to arc a 3,000 naut mile occlusion to a trip low near the NY Bite... seems like it's trying to hard to disappoint... I'll tell ya, if the 00z and 06z versions of both the GFS and its parallel run are correct, the Plains get a season's worth of snow in two storms ... on top of a season that has already unfairly favored them and treated easterners like a red headed step child... haha. 

But the GGEM is really pretty close to some special, albeit ... not a very dependable guidance source to put it diplomatically. But wait!  The Japanese model offers some support.  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro does some interesting shenanigans along the NE coast beyond D6 ...i should add...  in a roundabout way, it could be a partial nod toward the Canadian - abstract sense... That is wants to kind of behave like a blocky southern route...it just screws up the mid range part of it with it's early turning bias ?   maybe..  

That's the thing with spring ...particularly this early part of it ...right as the r-wave structures are crumbling. You just gotta wait it out while knowing the odds are against -

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, ChasingFlakes said:

The whites stand a chance.

Kind of a racist thing to say.

[Cold Miser]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Rain of yore. 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-E5E8A0BA-E4DF-48BF-A2CB-F4E23281027C.pdf

Wow.  Every day the depletion goes and goes and goes until it is gone.

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Pretty typical March series from the various guidance'  ... Early spring incarnate, with suggestions of wave space break downs and deeper cold plumes waning out to more vestigial layout of < 0C 850s ... some deeper pockets.  But really, these three days off 00z last night are the page turning there.  The entire region of the Canadian shield below ~ the 60th parallel is moderating substantially. 

It's hard to completely remove the loss of the -EPO as the reason why...  I suspect that's related, more so than no prior to the Ides of March - but... losing the cold load

Either way, the pattern looks very "bowling season" ...  with perhaps just a subtle lingering attempt to recommit to early polarward storm track/cutters.  That's funny - even in the absence of a pattern drive, the sore butting can't stop.

It's interesting to see the GGEM and GFS switch bias camps.. The GFS is so far west now as of 06z with the D6 system, that it tries to arc a 3,000 naut mile occlusion to a trip low near the NY Bite... seems like it's trying to hard to disappoint... I'll tell ya, if the 00z and 06z versions of both the GFS and its parallel run are correct, the Plains get a season's worth of snow in two storms ... on top of a season that has already unfairly favored them and treated easterners like a red headed step child... haha. 

But the GGEM is really pretty close to some special, albeit ... not a very dependable guidance source to put it diplomatically. But wait!  The Japanese model offers some support.  

 

CMC caved to GFS.  JMA about to do the same.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

CMC caved to GFS.  JMA about to do the same.

The idea was bathed in incredulity in the first place. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Sunday night storm trending colder each Euro run. It’s now got a couple inches of snow changing to ice maybe ending as cold drizzle 

[Lava Rock]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sunday night storm trending colder each Euro run. It’s now got a couple inches of snow changing to ice maybe ending as cold drizzle 

Fingers crossed. Would be nice to get another couple decent events, then I'm ready to flip the spring switch.

[Ginx snewx]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sunday night storm trending colder each Euro run. It’s now got a couple inches of snow changing to ice maybe ending as cold drizzle 

Yea with a low near NYC that locks in the cold. .4 qpf for the whole event is frozen

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea with a low near NYC that locks in the cold. .4 qpf for the whole event is frozen

We still Morch next week for a few days, but maybe that keeps #packintact a few extra days 

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We still Morch next week for a few days, but maybe that keeps #packintact a few extra days 

We do?

[Damage In Tolland]

Couple days 45-50 ain’t cold but I guess it’s normal for date at IJD

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Couple days 45-50 ain’t cold but I guess it’s normal for date at IJD

The definition of Morch is certainly a strange one.

[dendrite]

Yeah, if we're going to "Morch" it better be 60+ this time of year.

[tamarack]

7 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

That depth is fascinating as its such a ridiculous outlier vs any other year. The next highest is like 75-76" or something if I recall.

Right.  They reached 76" in on 2/18/1952, at the end of a monster storm - if you've seen the movie "Their Finest Hours" (Coastie rescues), that's the event.  Only reached 70 in 2 other years, 1958 and 1971.  Tops for this century is a modest 56, in 2001 and 2014.  While '69 was an incredible outlier (Farmington's 84" at the end of that storm - tops I've seen for anything in New England not on a mountain unless EPO got there in 2015, is 50% above any other winter), that 77" snowstorm is an outlier as well.  Many years ago I read about that winter in Appalachia magazine, and the effort it took to keep the building accessible.  Folks were discussing the possibility of the Tuckerman glacier perhaps lasting thru the summer.  (I think it died in August.)

[DavisStraight]

57 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Right.  They reached 76" in on 2/18/1952, at the end of a monster storm - if you've seen the movie "Their Finest Hours" (Coastie rescues), that's the event.  Only reached 70 in 2 other years, 1958 and 1971.  Tops for this century is a modest 56, in 2001 and 2014.  While '69 was an incredible outlier (Farmington's 84" at the end of that storm - tops I've seen for anything in New England not on a mountain unless EPO got there in 2015, is 50% above any other winter), that 77" snowstorm is an outlier as well.  Many years ago I read about that winter in Appalachia magazine, and the effort it took to keep the building accessible.  Folks were discussing the possibility of the Tuckerman glacier perhaps lasting thru the summer.  (I think it died in August.)

I hiked up there one July and there were guys skiing that glacier, don't remember the year but it had to be a good pack for the glacier to be the size it was in July. 

[dendrite]

There was quite a bit of snow up at the old Cannon site too.

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-476E6A15-A7FF-476E-B92C-8D1D1890BBE2.pdf

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

18z FV3 wants to lay a few inches down over the interior Sun/Mon before any change over.

[powderfreak]

8 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

That depth is fascinating as its such a ridiculous outlier vs any other year. The next highest is like 75-76" or something if I recall.

Mansfield COOP got to 144" after 3/25-27/1969 delivered 24.5" snow on 3.05" liquid.  The COOP had 7.58" of frozen liquid fall that month, about similar to that Cannon Mountain F-6.

The interesting thing with Mansfield compared with these other sites, is that the record snow depth isn't obscenely high relative to a bunch of other winters.  Like getting 100" of depth has happened a bunch in the past 20 years at Mansfield (this season included)... but getting above 120" is like the glass ceiling that can't be broken.  And the 144" in 1969 is tops, but a lot of other winters get to within one big nor'easter of that amount.  This season could easily fall into that category.  Huge snow depths all season long, some record breaking for the time of year, but falls just one strong 20-30" nor'easter or upslope event from really maxing it out.  Those 20-30" synoptic then upslope storms aren't *that* uncommon for the upper elevations, especially in spring when cut-offs can cause NW flow snow to stack up for days...so we will see. 

Overall though, Mansfield definitely doesn't follow a bunch of those other sites in NH/ME where the record depths are so ridiculously higher than anything else.  The percentages would be like if Mansfield had a 200+ inch depth at some point, with the next highest at like 50% of that. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Mansfield COOP got to 144" after 3/25-27/1969 delivered 24.5" snow on 3.05" liquid.  The COOP had 7.58" of frozen liquid fall that month, about similar to that Cannon Mountain F-6.

The interesting thing with Mansfield compared with these other sites, is that the record snow depth isn't obscenely high relative to a bunch of other winters.  Like getting 100" of depth has happened a bunch in the past 20 years at Mansfield (this season included)... but getting above 120" is like the glass ceiling that can't be broken.  And the 144" in 1969 is tops, but a lot of other winters get to within one big nor'easter of that amount.  This season could easily fall into that category.  Huge snow depths all season long, some record breaking for the time of year, but falls just one strong 20-30" nor'easter or upslope event from really maxing it out.  Those 20-30" synoptic then upslope storms aren't *that* uncommon for the upper elevations, especially in spring when cut-offs can cause NW flow snow to stack up for days...so we will see. 

Overall though, Mansfield definitely doesn't follow a bunch of those other sites in NH/ME where the record depths are so ridiculously higher than anything else.  The percentages would be like if Mansfield had a 200+ inch depth at some point, with the next highest at like 50% of that. 

When did you guys hit 100”? 

[powderfreak]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When did you guys hit 100”? 

February 16th...although it was tied for the 3rd quickest winter to 100" at the long-term stake, it seemed to take forever.  The January 31st reading of 98" was the highest to end January, but snowfall puttered along in February.  Snowfall last month wasn't anything to write home about, below normal even, but it didn't melt aside from an early month thaw...it just slowly added to the existing base.

Today's reading.  With the NWS camera down, they can't get the readings so a small group of locals will continue to monitor and submit to the official record.