mreaves Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 8:42 PM, WinterWolf said: I'll be heading up there next weekend. Buried...Absolutely BURIED!! Expand On 2/28/2019 at 9:16 PM, Whineminster said: Hope you're bringing your Arctic Cat Alpha One. Expand Check out the outdoor sports thread in the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley sub forum. Don’t Jonger yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 The big 18z GFS solution for Saturday sort of partially phased with the late lakes s/w and it helps suppress heights out ahead of the Monday threat..... so this run is gonna be flatter than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 9:55 PM, ORH_wxman said: The big 18z GFS solution for Saturday sort of partially phased with the late lakes s/w and it helps suppress heights out ahead of the Monday threat..... so this run is gonna be flatter than 12z. Expand Yeah looks a bit flatter at 78. Any additional melts can cease until 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Warning event Saturday and bigger warning event Sunday night/Monday on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Feet by Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1.5+ snow total Saturday to Monday-mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Winter redemption arc on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 And we’re inside 4 days on the whole deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 lol if GFS plays out verbatim I'll be over climo by next Tuesday. Sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:07 PM, Hoth said: lol if GFS plays out verbatim I'll be over climo by next Tuesday. Sell. Expand Modern day climo....comes in bunches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:03 PM, weathafella said: And we’re inside 4 days on the whole deal. Expand What's your total on the season, Jerry? Including whatever you got for the November event. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I have a bad feeling that come the 0z runs that Scooter is going to get the last laugh. The 18z GFS is as good as it's going to get IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Snow on snow on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:23 PM, 78Blizzard said: I have a bad feeling that come the 0z runs that Scooter is going to get the last laugh. The 18z GFS is as good as it's going to get IMO. Expand Gfs is wrong. I expect something like the euro guidance. Basically this won’t be all snow locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 Scary thing is we are somewhat reliant on a phase for this solution...phasing has not done well this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:37 PM, CoastalWx said: Gfs is wrong. I expect something like the euro guidance. Basically this won’t be all snow locally. Expand How so? Rain to Weymouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:18 PM, BombsAway1288 said: What's your total on the season, Jerry? Including whatever you got for the November event. Thanks! Expand 28.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:38 PM, NorEastermass128 said: How so? Rain to Weymouth? Expand Snow or mix to rain for you and I at least. That’s my guess. I’ll gladly be wrong if gfs is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:37 PM, CoastalWx said: Gfs is wrong. I expect something like the euro guidance. Basically this won’t be all snow locally. Expand Euro has been awful this winter. Can't take it seriously at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:37 PM, CoastalWx said: Gfs is wrong. I expect something like the euro guidance. Basically this won’t be all snow locally. Expand Locally as your place? Nothing to unusual with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:46 PM, Snow88 said: Euro has been awful this winter. Can't take it seriously at all. Expand Everything sucked this winter. Everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:47 PM, moneypitmike said: Locally as your place? Nothing to unusual with that. Expand Ern areas. Should be good orh west and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:42 PM, CoastalWx said: Snow or mix to rain for you and I at least. That’s my guess. I’ll gladly be wrong if gfs is right. Expand I can see that, esp if it ticks N in the last hour. Lowest SSTs of the year are a benefit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:56 PM, NorEastermass128 said: I can see that, esp if it ticks N in the last hour. Lowest SSTs of the year are a benefit though. Expand Let's just keep hoping that the Saturday event keeps trending more amped. As others have said, the more amped Sat is, the flatter the Sunday night/Monday event is. Gonna be a super tight window to max out on both events either way. I'll be happy with just one of them delivering 8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:46 PM, Snow88 said: Euro has been awful this winter. Can't take it seriously at all. Expand People like to casually forget everytime the GFS has blown chunks on a system. And lol at can’t take it seriously. I mean, why even look at any models at all then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:56 PM, NorEastermass128 said: I can see that, esp if it ticks N in the last hour. Lowest SSTs of the year are a benefit though. Expand Boston SST was 37°F as of yesterday, the lowest for the date since 2015. With BN cold ahead of us, they can only dip lower. That could bode well for more marginal situations later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:46 PM, Snow88 said: Euro has been awful this winter. Can't take it seriously at all. Expand The Euro has been rock steady on several large storms this season, at least up this way. The EPS even more so. You may have stopped really paying attention on the numerous non-snow events but the Euro was definitely the best model up here this winter. This is a bit of a different pattern though now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 11:13 PM, dendrite said: People like to casually forget everytime the GFS has blown chunks on a system. And lol at can’t take it seriously. I mean, why even look at any models at all then? Expand Hence why it's in my Fraud Five. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 the legend of the swfe that trended south inside 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I don't see a lot of phasing for that Sat system... It looks like it's just got some surprise potency on the run in own rites... It really looks like a disjointed albeit negative tilted slope there.. .but a disparate wave signature curls up into NYS while there's a weird mini closure of the 500 mb surface scooting NE of CC ... also, the idea of warning snow Saturday then again Monday is a relatively rare occurrence (statistically) and there's a reason for that. Usually the higher the QPF, the more wave spacing is required to reload the pattern. It has happened before... Dec 1996 had back to backs ... poorly forecast, too. The first wasn't but a cat paw forecast and everyone in central/NE zones flipped and went down to 1/4 mi parachutes for the better part of 4 or 5 hours that leveled some 4-6" of positive blue bust. Then came the thundersnow the following overnight to the tune of another 5-9" and between the two there was substantial power issues... But again, that's rare... just something to keep in mind as the GFS tries to turn your screws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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