weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: That's "positive snow depth change"...I wouldn't use it. Also, clown maps in general still suck....they sucked 10 years and still do today. I will never understand the fascination some people have with them. I guess I can understand using them or sharing them as a joke aspect, but there are people who use them heavily for forecasting. Those things will never be good...the algorithms don't even really incorporate the most important facets of snow forecasting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I will never understand the fascination some people have with them. I guess I can understand using them or sharing them as a joke aspect, but there are people who use them heavily for forecasting. Those things will never be good...the algorithms don't even really incorporate the most important facets of snow forecasting lol I understand why people use them....they are really easy to read. We have to remember that alot of people aren't mets or even well-skilled hobbyists. So it's easier than figuring it out from other maps like QPF or even just midlevels and synoptics. I think clown maps can be ok at times...but you have to know that its going to be a pretty cookie cutter 10 to 1 storm and the QPF isn't going to be heavily influnced by banding, etc. I don't mind if people post them...they are ok to post. Just know that you gotta take them with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Rain gets to about Stamford. I just want to delete every post you make using these god awful "sleet included" graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Looks like Monday is going to be a little more amped then the 06z run on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I will never understand the fascination some people have with them. I guess I can understand using them or sharing them as a joke aspect, but there are people who use them heavily for forecasting. Those things will never be good...the algorithms don't even really incorporate the most important facets of snow forecasting lol It's arguably the best way to summarize a model run with one-snapshot. On the margins you have to know what's up but you can get a pretty damn good idea of what amodel run just showed with a snow map. Whether people hate it or not, it is the easiest one graphic that answers a lot of questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I will never understand the fascination some people have with them. I guess I can understand using them or sharing them as a joke aspect, but there are people who use them heavily for forecasting. Those things will never be good...the algorithms don't even really incorporate the most important facets of snow forecasting lol Like last night, of course ratios were going to be high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: It's arguably the best way to summarize a model run with one-snapshot. On the margins you have to know what's up but you can get a pretty damn good idea of what amodel run just showed with a snow map. Whether people hate it or not, it is the easiest one graphic that answers a lot of questions. They are probably more useful for a ensemble product than an OP run...since at least the ensembles will smooth out all the garbage that affects clown maps. But they still won't work in near-isothermal paste bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: They are probably more useful for a ensemble product than an OP run...since at least the ensembles will smooth out all the garbage that affects clown maps. But they still won't work in near-isothermal paste bombs. Which is typically 75% of our accumulating events in SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 12z CMC is 992mb over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You buying in for Saturday??? or?? AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I understand why people use them....they are really easy to read. We have to remember that alot of people aren't mets or even well-skilled hobbyists. So it's easier than figuring it out from other maps like QPF or even just midlevels and synoptics. I think clown maps can be ok at times...but you have to know that its going to be a pretty cookie cutter 10 to 1 storm and the QPF isn't going to be heavily influnced by banding, etc. I don't mind if people post them...they are ok to post. Just know that you gotta take them with a grain of salt. Just now, powderfreak said: It's arguably the best way to summarize a model run with one-snapshot. On the margins you have to know what's up but you can get a pretty damn good idea of what amodel run just showed with a snow map. Whether people hate it or not, it is the easiest one graphic that answers a lot of questions. I see both your points and they certainly make sense. Although I don't know if I necessary agree that it gives a pretty damn good idea of what a model run just showed. I also think they yield more questions than answers. I think at the end of the day they lead to reduced forecasting skill. I don't mind when they're posted on here either...but when they're tossed around social media and people get all hyped up and then complain that models were bad b/c the snow fall map busted...that drives me nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 GFS still looks great for most. Though it did move NW a bit. Maybe EURO can come in line with where the GFS is and we can have a compromise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Thats quite a few tics NW on the 12z GFS for Mon from 06z, Looks like just the Cape would mix this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, Sn0waddict said: GFS still looks great for most. Though it did move NE a bit. Maybe EURO can come in line with where the GFS is and we can have a compromise? I am hoping we have the field goal posts and the EURO comes SE a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Please GFS find a nut 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Please GFS find a nut yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 What a winter is partially saved run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Thats quite a few tics NW on the 12z GFS for Mon from 06z, Looks like just the Cape would mix this run. Wet blizzard for Jimmy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 GGEM ticked north for Monday....near ACK for the low track and prob mixes to near a BED-HFD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I know Monday is the bigger ticket item at this point, but at this point the models can't figure out the Saturday morning system...how are they going to nail the Monday track? The coastal areas that missed out last night might get more snow tonight than last night or maybe they dont.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Zoomed in QPF GFS for Saturday. Shows around 0.75 imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 FV3 is south of it’s previous run. Just to add some more confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Two storms on one thread is confusing. Break em up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: Two storms on one thread is confusing. Break em up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Yeah migrate the Saturday discussion to the other thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I've had other things going and have not been following AMWX much or reading the threads. Just looked at the 12Z GFS. Finally congrats SNE! I know the Euro is more ampted which would bring in more warmth but I would lock in this GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I think Monday is going to be a pretty good hit back here in the hinterlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 What a weenie GFS run, here comes the Wxniss storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 27 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Zoomed in QPF GFS for Saturday. Shows around 0.75 imby. I'd take .6 as snow...not bad...if it's right?? Dr. No is on tap in a lil over 90 minutes to crush hopes though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What a weenie GFS run, here comes the Wxniss storm We really need the Euro to at least trend SE a bit. Like to see what the UK has considering the Euro usually follows suit in a way. Although, as one other poster pointed out before, if the models can't nail down the location of Saturday's storm now, how are they going to get Monday's storm correct. EPS trends will be important too this afternoon, although not do or die for reasons explained before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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