RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Nice hit there. Old school coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 That would be quite the shellacking on the fv3 for Monday, To bad it sucks.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 So close for a big event for the 6th too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Hitting the sauce again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: That would be quite the shellacking on the fv3 for Monday, To bad it sucks.......lol Ugh. I would almost rather have that model be cold and suppressed. Has a cold bias, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s uncanny how one over amped Euro op run obviously wrong just sets the melts in motion. Scooter starts it and his emotional posts set the others falling like dominoes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Ugh. I would almost rather have that model be cold and suppressed. Has a cold bias, correct?Yes it does.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 18z collectively at happy hour it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Ugh. I would almost rather have that model be cold and suppressed. Has a cold bias, correct? It does but as far as storms go it’s been all over. The main concern soon will be the navgem which is currently fairly amped. The navgem rule though doesn’t really start applying til inside 84-90. Beyond that it can occasionally be in the amped camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Yes it does. . They had to compensate for the warm gfs by going to the extreme opposite. Kinda like our Presidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: It does but as far as storms go it’s been all over. The main concern soon will be the navgem which is currently fairly amped. The navgem rule though doesn’t really start applying til inside 84-90. Beyond that it can occasionally be in the amped camp The NAVGEM should never be anyone's concern regardless of outcome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 How were March of 89, 92, 95, 98, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2013 in terms of winter-like weather? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: The NAVGEM should never be anyone's concern regardless of outcome... It’s remarkable though how often it can tip you off that other models may be on their way to adjusting. The wave that hits NJ/PA/MD Friday the navgem consistently was north the last 48 hours of almost everything other than the NAM. Today everything else came north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: They had to compensate for the warm gfs by going to the extreme opposite. Kinda like our Presidents. A drastic over correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s remarkable though how often it can tip you off that other models may be on their way to adjusting. The wave that hits NJ/PA/MD Friday the navgem consistently was north the last 48 hours of almost everything other than the NAM. Today everything else came north Just a question, that's (NAVGEM) the former Navy NOGAPS, correct or I'm completely off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Maybe JC-CT will come in and let us know what the JMA is up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Flow still seems too fast to have a lot of confidence more than a few days out, and even then no safe bets. I like our chances though for a moderate or bigger event in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 58 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Flow still seems too fast to have a lot of confidence more than a few days out, and even then no safe bets. I like our chances though for a moderate or bigger event in the next week. The flow is also fast and still zonal, there will be no closed low at 5H tracking over the benchmark in this pattern 7H won’t even be closed...we will have another one of these “sliding lows that are relatively weak hoping it exits off NJ and it will slide ENE. The amplification is simply not there for a favorable benchmark coastal . I'm talking about Monday Anything wound up at 7H is more than likely cutting ..still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I can’t keep up with the ups and downs of this thread. One minute it’s snow snow snow. The next it’s the end of winter. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 6 hours ago, weathafella said: You sure? 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Only to eff up potential. When there is potential it won’t be around. 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: Not a bad EPS look for ya'll this week... I'm glad I passed on buying a snow blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I like where we stand at this time for Sun-Mon system. It seems to me because of the fast flow that system has no chance of cutting or even hugging. It’s either out with a whiff or all snow. At this time I’d have to agree with the more snowy side because the storm is moving fast but it also has heavy precipitation 1-1.5 inches of QPF so the fast flow balances with the shift east which cools off columns and we snow. Plus models aren’t that bad in this timeframe, let’s be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said: I like where we stand at this time for Sun-Mon system. It seems to me because of the fast flow that system has no chance of cutting or even hugging. It’s either out with a whiff or all snow. At this time I’d have to agree with the more snowy side because the storm is moving fast but it also has heavy precipitation 1-1.5 inches of QPF so the fast flow balances with the shift east which cools off columns and we snow. Plus models aren’t that bad in this timeframe, let’s be honest. Well snowman19 disagrees with you. He's thinking super warm cutter. I'm surprised he hasn't responded to you yet. Oh wait, he must have used up his 5 posts/day today. Oh well!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 18z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: 18z Euro? Grazes SE MA for Saturday. Only goes out to 90h so we can't see what happens Monday. The heights out ahead of the low are a bit lower than the 12z run but overall it still looks pretty amped...compared to, say, the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Grazes SE MA for Saturday. Only goes out to 90h so we can't see what happens Monday. The heights out ahead of the low are a bit lower than the 12z run but overall it still looks pretty amped...compared to, say, the gfs. Eps is also less amped than 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps is also less amped than 12z 18z Looked more amped to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps is also less amped than 12z 18z EPS pretty amped for Monday though, More amped then the 12z run was, Flips SE areas over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z Looked more amped to me. Maybe he meant Saturday because it certainly wasn't on Monday, But even Saturday was a couple tics NW of 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z EPS pretty amped for Monday though, More amped then the 12z run was, Flips SE areas over to rain. I'm listening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm listening... It was 0.5"+ all snow for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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