Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Some will say it never arrived. here, here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 We go from a suppressed storm to a very amped storm within 2 runs. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 If the youngsters don’t know how the 80s winters felt and looked like....well, you’re living in it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: here, here! Been terrible down your way, From one extreme to the other from a couple years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I get the frustration, but the EURO definitely carries weight. It's 5 days out... I think the pattern is different than it has been and a low coming out of the south could go just about anywhere. I bet the EPS are much further SE and will look pretty good for SNE. There should be zero frustration. It’s an op run by itself 5 days out . It’s got no support and it’s a known bias . It’s tossed , as is any huge model showing a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If the youngsters don’t know how the 80s winters felt and looked like....well, you’re living in it now. THe only difference is they didn't follow the model carnage on their smartphones and instead we had to wait for the occasional 6-12" forecast get pulled out from under us at the last second. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's even eventually raining into dryslots hood. And this winter, when he gets taint (which has been almost always) so do I, though usually with a better front end here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 43 minutes ago, The Graupler said: Looks like the potential is there. But also the potential for a miss. I’d recommend watching the models You may want to turn your mask around backwards when looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I get the frustration, but the EURO definitely carries weight. It's 5 days out... I think the pattern is different than it has been and a low coming out of the south could go just about anywhere. I bet the EPS are much further SE and will look pretty good for SNE. I would be surprised if we don't see Saturday evolve for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On the bright side, Scooter melted...usually we get a pretty good model cycle within a couple runs of a Scooter melt. Saturday will probably come in more amped next run or three and then Monday will be in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: See I think the pattern has changed. It's not a storm with mid-levels way west... I definitely get why it sucks to see but I don't see why this couldn't stay south and more progressive. The EURO is much different than the GFS/GGEM/ICON/FV3 with that. Though I will say that Euro snow map has panned out almost exactly like that a couple times so far this season, but it doesn't seem like the same pattern we were in. Agree entirely... I was about to post the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: THe only difference is they didn't follow the model carnage on their smartphones and instead we had to wait for the occasional 6-12" forecast get pulled out from under us at the last second. I haven't had one of those since November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh well. Congrats northerners again. Definitely never ending winter for them. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s uncanny how one over amped Euro op run obviously wrong just sets the melts in motion. Scooter starts it and his emotional posts set the others falling like dominoes The other models are trending towards it and the Euro track fits the theme this season but I do think it's best to wait 2 cycles. A few days ago there was supposed to be a big cutter on Saturday and that won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: THe only difference is they didn't follow the model carnage on their smartphones and instead we had to wait for the occasional 6-12" forecast get pulled out from under us at the last second. True, and I’m not sure what is worse. It stings less nowadays, so probably the young elementary school weenie in the 80s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: On the bright side, Scooter melted...usually we get a pretty good model cycle within a couple runs of a Scooter melt. Saturday will probably come in more amped next run or three and then Monday will be in the sweet spot. He gets so emotional. After saying he was all done with winter a month ago. Can’t handle the emotions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 No actually the opposite. If Monday didn't clear the baroclinic zone well offshore, we d have a legit threat on mar 6-7. Pretty good shortwave diving into lakes at day 6 but there's no thermal gradient to work with so prob just some flurries. Exactly why I’ve been rooting for Mar 6-7 all along, and against anything in the days before. H5 gets tee’d up, but Mar 3-4 screws it.Still lots of flux and time to improve, untended hose like Tip said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: On the bright side, Scooter melted...usually we get a pretty good model cycle within a couple runs of a Scooter melt. Saturday will probably come in more amped next run or three and then Monday will be in the sweet spot. Ha I was thinking it could be fun to bump if/when 18" falls in the next 7 days or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: On the bright side, Scooter melted...usually we get a pretty good model cycle within a couple runs of a Scooter melt. Saturday will probably come in more amped next run or three and then Monday will be in the sweet spot. A couple of Kraft snow jobs and then when you want the whole package and tired of the rub and tugs, the FBI raids the model parlor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: True, and I’m not sure what is worse. It stings less nowadays, so probably the young elementary school weenie in the 80s? Some the the worst ones were the light to moderate snows not panning out...at least when the big ones started to fall apart, there would be some warning signs like the Mets pushing back the start time or "trimming" amounts slightly....but sometimes we'd get those 2-4/3-6 forecasts and you'd wake up and see brown grass through your still-half blurred vision and hear cars splashing through a puddle...or you'd wake up and see the disk of the sun through the clouds and nothing on the ground and then go wait for the school bus in frigid conditions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: THe only difference is they didn't follow the model carnage on their smartphones and instead we had to wait for the occasional 6-12" forecast get pulled out from under us at the last second. Better off that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 DIANE just left the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No actually the opposite. If Monday didn't clear the baroclinic zone well offshore, we d have a legit threat on mar 6-7. Pretty good shortwave diving into lakes at day 6 but there's no thermal gradient to work with so prob just some flurries. Gotcha. It's early but I've been tracking the pattern past the 6-7 threat pretty closely. Travel coming up that weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Exactly why I’ve been rooting for Mar 6-7 all along, and against anything in the days before. H5 gets tee’d up, but Mar 3-4 screws it. Still lots of flux and time to improve, untended hose like Tip said. Yeah. You can see it even better this run. Nice energy rounding the base well south of the lakes shortwave at 144. That's a powderkeg if we had the baroclinic zone closer to shore. Definite big dog look...but Monday pushes the thermal gradient too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Don’t worry guys the true king the JMA has come to the rescue with a benchmark track. We are saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 I love how all the pieces on the chessboard are moving around just perfectly to screw the northeast out of a snowstorm. Not an easy feat to accomplish especially for an entire winter. I tip my cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 This runs also trying to package the continental cold deposited off the EPO ... bundle it up with that SPV and rotated up and out and leaving the mid latitudes in a kind of faux spring nebular look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 wouldn't be surprising if we end up somewhere in the middle. fortunately we will very soon see how Saturdays is trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Meh... you guys are being nervy neurotic about mere nutations in outlook that still some five days away... That 850 mb still gets mostly snow for western sections... well within margin for errors. Good luck getting perfection at D5 let alone, having that be successful anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now