March Disco

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As warm season approaches so does ACATT. Like clockwork 

Geez I am sorry I posted those maps let me call Dan Leonard and see if his Euro weeklies show the same. Why you always such a dick  

[wxsniss]

I gather this view is not in the majority, but I've been rooting for consolidating energy onto the Mar 6-7 system.

This is a mechanistic preference, not a forecast. The H5 pattern is more amplified and conducive to a fully phased, less progressive system mid-week than it is Sun.

Relatedly, the solutions we've seen today crowd the tracks with shortwave energy, and Tip's destructive interference in spacing/timing may become a factor. We get multiple moderate events (obviously great by this season's standard) rather than a single blockbuster event. I think we have about 10 days to score big, and I'd rather roll the dice on a blockbuster.

Regardless, all scenarios are still on the table and pretty high confidence we snow.

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Damn. Needed one more panel on the 18z euro. Looked good at 90h. 

We need a DGEuroX from 90hr to 192hr.

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As warm season approaches so does ACATT. Like clockwork 

I'm worried about the 864hr backdoor.

[SnowHole413]

we spring, last 2 weeks of winter so enjoy it

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Dear lord pls bring the heat and end this pos winter.

Too early for heat

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Geez I am sorry I posted those maps let me call Dan Leonard and see if his Euro weeklies show the same. Why you always such a dick  

Man .. I’ll stop joking around . Have a good night 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I gather this view is not in the majority, but I've been rooting for consolidating energy onto the Mar 6-7 system.

This is a mechanistic preference, not a forecast. The H5 pattern is more amplified and conducive to a fully phased, less progressive system mid-week than it is Sun.

Relatedly, the solutions we've seen today crowd the tracks with shortwave energy, and Tip's destructive interference in spacing/timing may become a factor. We get multiple moderate events (obviously great by this season's standard) rather than a single blockbuster event. I think we have about 10 days to score big, and I'd rather roll the dice on a blockbuster.

Regardless, all scenarios are still on the table and pretty high confidence we snow.

Agree.

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I gather this view is not in the majority, but I've been rooting for consolidating energy onto the Mar 6-7 system.

This is a mechanistic preference, not a forecast. The H5 pattern is more amplified and conducive to a fully phased, less progressive system mid-week than it is Sun.

Relatedly, the solutions we've seen today crowd the tracks with shortwave energy, and Tip's destructive interference in spacing/timing may become a factor. We get multiple moderate events (obviously great by this season's standard) rather than a single blockbuster event. I think we have about 10 days to score big, and I'd rather roll the dice on a blockbuster.

Regardless, all scenarios are still on the table and pretty high confidence we snow.

I would agree that March 6-7 has the higher end ceiling. Im not sure that Saturday really messes with it all that much though. I suppose if it slows down enough it could really hinder Mar 6-7...but during the entire period we've been tracking these, both events are using the same longwave trough. Both pinwheel around the larger vortex in the lakes. 

If Saturday magically disappeared then we  might see more potential for Mar 6-7 too but I don't think we're getting rid of it. It's been a distinct shortwave in the flow the whole time. 

I do think we can still get a pretty high end event though...we were almost there at 12z today. We'd need just a bit more amplification and I think we'd prob see a widespread 8-14 type system. I'm not sure we have enough to go super high end though (widespread 15+)

[ineedsnow]

FV3 GFS has been delayed once again.. new release date TBD!!

[ORH_wxman]

Fwiw 18z EPS are pretty good for both events. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would agree that March 6-7 has the higher end ceiling. Im not sure that Saturday really messes with it all that much though. I suppose if it slows down enough it could really hinder Mar 6-7...but during the entire period we've been tracking these, both events are using the same longwave trough. Both pinwheel around the larger vortex in the lakes. 

If Saturday magically disappeared then we  might see more potential for Mar 6-7 too but I don't think we're getting rid of it. It's been a distinct shortwave in the flow the whole time. 

I do think we can still get a pretty high end event though...we were almost there at 12z today. We'd need just a bit more amplification and I think we'd prob see a widespread 8-14 type system. I'm not sure we have enough to go super high end though (widespread 15+)

If it slowed down enough, it may mess with March 6-7, but it would also trend larger.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If it slowed down enough, it may mess with March 6-7, but it would also trend larger.

Right. There's pros and cons for each scenario. Saturday is closer so it's easier to root for the more certain entity...however, Saturday has been more marginal on temps and dynamics than a potential Mar 6-7 storm. So there's still a lot of ways for Saturday to "go wrong". 

Ive just realized that wxniss is talking about March 4 vs Mar 6-7. That's a different beast....

[ORH_wxman]

You can see the 2nd EPS solution I posted above is march 4th and not March 6-7. The March 4th storm has been trending more significant. The march 6-7 storm doesn't have much to work with behind that system when it produces a moderate to siggy event. But the trough has more big dog potential by the time we get to march 6 because there is good backside energy diving into it. 

[Connecticut Appleman]

Need a score card keep all of these things straight.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If it slowed down enough, it may mess with March 6-7, but it would also trend larger.

I’m gonna go ahead and guess the amplification day 8-9 flattens out next few days . Then we can put to bed this constant blue balling at day 8-10 and start fresh next year 

i see 2 advisory events possibly and maybe maybe low end warning 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Connecticut Appleman said:

Need a score card keep all of these things straight.

Yeah there's several shots in the clip over the next 10 days. At least we have some legit threats to track and a longwave pattern that actually isn't hostile to coastals. 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

I’ll take that look on the EPS, no too shabby 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there's several shots in the clip over the next 10 days. At least we have some legit threats to track and a longwave pattern that actually isn't hostile to coastals. 

This!!  

Bring it on! Let’s Finish this B*tch winter on a Strong note. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m gonna go ahead and guess the amplification day 8-9 flattens out next few days . Then we can put to bed this constant blue balling at day 8-10 and start fresh next year 

i see 2 advisory events possibly and maybe maybe low end warning 

I'm gonna go ahead and call for at least one event of at least 6-12" magnitude.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm to go ahead can call for at least one event of at least 6-12" magnitude.

Climo says yes...and the medium range pattern seems to support that idea...but the tenor of this season says **** no 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Climo says yes...and the medium range pattern seems to support that idea...but the tenor of this season says **** no 

I'm not promising a blizzard....but take the tenor of this winter and toss it.

You need to be objective....this is a look that we haven't seen yet....those heights from AK are trickling down the coast. This is a perfect illustration of the importance of recognizing when to bail on persistence forecasting.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

33 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Climo says yes...and the medium range pattern seems to support that idea...but the tenor of this season says **** no 

I have my beliefs as to what is causing the “bad luck” lol and until those things change and we see some large scale differences inside day 5!!!  I do not see the medium term pattern as turning “favorable” for east coast coastals . More like it went from nearly impossible to unlikely 

if there is a “coastal” I see it probably moving wsw-ene and possibly a mid Atlantic Deal is course it could hit us but I beleive it will be flatter than currently modeled and certainly not a slow mover

i would anticipate the amplified day 8 look to flatten inside the next few days and not just because “it has”

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I have my beliefs as to what is causing the “bad luck” lol and until those things change and we see some large scale differences inside day 5!!!  I do not see the medium term pattern as turning “favorable” for east coast coastals . More like it went from nearly impossible to unlikely 

if there is a “coastal” I see it probably moving wsw-ene and possibly a mid Atlantic Deal 

i would anticipate the amplified day 8 look to flatten inside the next few days and not just because “it has”

Yeah I mentioned something similar a few days ago. 

Trend application breaks down crossing pattern boundaries. 

Edit : I thought I as responding to Ray

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not promising a blizzard....but take the tenor of this winter and toss it.

You need to be objective....this is a look that we haven't seen yet....those heights from AK are trickling down the coast. This is a perfect illustration of the importance of recognizing when to bail on persistence forecasting.

I’ve got my money on the Milf-master from Nashua...or wherever he resides.

Kidding around, I seriously think we have one decent event before April1

[MJO812]

Nam still has the follow up wave for Friday

[CoastalWx]

Now a fropa on GFS more or less.  

[CoastalWx]

GGEM gone wild through hr 144.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GGEM gone wild through hr 144.

We take.  Gfs is having trouble figuring out a solution.   CMC and euro had a nice hot Monday.  Let’s see if euro continues now that cmc did.

[weathafella]

CMC is a weenie run and gfs is moving there too.