40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The more I look at this/that ... the better the terminology comes to mind to describe ... The N/stream, comprised of the SPV fragment, can't get down in latitude fast enough to catch up with and capture the southern stream wave - the southern stream wave is caught up in a velocity rich flow. I.e., too fast. Metaphor: can't get captured and fall into orbit because it is moving along at escape velocity ... heh, I like that. Fitting ... should our last hurrah fail because of this, as I've been bitching about too much gradient and wind speed all winter - What I don't understand is how we have ended up with 17 phased cutters this season, if the speed of the flow is so prohibitive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: What I don't understand is how we have ended up with 17 phased cutters this season, if the speed of the flow is so prohibitive... Actually, I don't even think those phases...lol. Just run of the mill s/w's moving west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 After this weekend, we lose the gradient look. That's why we have some late bloomers modeled. That's our shot of a coastal. Low conf...but not zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Actually, I don't even think those phases...lol. Just run of the mill s/w's moving west. True. I'm mobile...does the euro fully phase at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Actually, I don't even think those phases...lol. Just run of the mill s/w's moving west. yep... I understand why he said that though - my fault... I made it sound a little like "they have to phase to be west" you can phase and now phase, west, east, north or south... In this case... as in, the one for this weekend, we were seeing (previously) a bodily displacement south with that vortex up there ... that's a different beast than those earlier lakes cutters. Just so happens that it might have resulted in the same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: True. I'm mobile...does the euro fully phase at 12z? No phase, just a nicely located s/w. Of course it could go poof at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 GFS continues to trend south away from the cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: GFS continues to trend south away from the cutter For when..Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: For when..Saturday? Yeah. But not sure why it's even relevant at this point on the GFS. All other guidance hasn't had a cutter for 2-3 cycles now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2019 Author Share Posted February 26, 2019 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: No phase, just a nicely located s/w. Of course it could go poof at 00z. So I'm not sure why the gradient situation should matter as much it it doesn't phase...maybe it can't dig enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2019 Author Share Posted February 26, 2019 00z GFS has moved demonstratively towards a phase in la la land....that is very close to a nuke- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 00z GFS has moved demonstratively towards a phase in la la land....that is very close to a nuke- Just took a look, yeah the lagging northern stream energy catches up just as the system is departing, oh so close to a nuke. Another different way of getting a decent hit... It's like we finally have a favorable H5, and all sorts of variations in spacing / timing of the shortwaves all lead to something interesting in that Mar 6-7 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Euro op with a few tasty solutions just brushing by. Definitely a little eye opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro op with a few tasty solutions just brushing by. Definitely a little eye opening. Would be funny to see the biggest snowfalls before and after Met winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 That EC OP run (and CMC) parades like 3 events Mar 1-7 grazing SNE... it’s like we finally get a good H5 pattern and we’re cramming to catch up. Certainly a very wintry look loaded with potential, and I think that’s also part of the challenge... wave spacing issues on this run may be interfering with a more amped event in that timeframe as was shown on the prior EC runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Snow, snowy, snowiest Still seeing rain forecasts this weekend. Where are they getting that from lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Euro op with a few tasty solutions just brushing by. Definitely a little eye opening. Always good when you have 4 legit chances for snow in 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Euro op with a few tasty solutions just brushing by. Definitely a little eye opening. I hope so, but with the way this season has gone you almost expect every single one of them to find a way to miss us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, Spanks45 said: I hope so, but with the way this season has gone you almost expect every single one of them to find a way to miss us.... I want to get excited, but I have to be guarded and ready for disappointment. Kinda how my wife feels when we hop in the sack... 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 5 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Would be funny to see the biggest snowfalls before and after Met winter I’ve seen post met winter do that multiple times including last season but the November dump makes it particularly unique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I’ve seen post met winter do that multiple times including last season but the November dump makes it particularly unique. Looks like NDITs March 12 ain't walking in the door. ENS pushing the warmup past day 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Right ...so unique that it happened in October of 2011 --> 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Looks like NDITs March 12 ain't walking in the door. ENS pushing the warmup past day 15 It's true... Not sure about the EPS derivatives but the GEFs based teleconnectors have never liked this interval as a protracted affair. I mean one can see it plain as day with the WPO positive the whole way, ...that means the Pacific is unstable for a -EPO ... eventually, the west will [quite likely] force its way around the hemisphere and usurp that NE Pacific cold pattern... Plus we have the PNA resisting rise during - overall not a good look for longevity. This doesn't speak to backdoor season and/or any in the myriad of idiosyncrasies and charm that comes with New England springs... I mean, we could sneak a "bowling ball" in and still justify it as a warm pattern ...etc.. It's just that the canvas may flip more spring like after this sort of "last hurrah" Heh... believe it or not, snow is a part of spring climate N of NYC too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Well... finally wended our way into a pattern that is more conducive for winter enthusiasts ... Yet, the overnight runs were fantastic art in avoiding realization - really was staggeringly inconsequential relative to all guiding kinematics. You're looking at these guidance' ...clicking through their intervals, watching a most clever, insidious destructive interference at all scales .. as though an actual agenda were at work to keep the outcome as uninspired as is mathematically allowable in a realm of overwhelmingly powerful guiding parametrics. The models would have us believe that a lit match cannot ignite gasoline vapors while mixing said vapors with pure oxygen.. Those are long storied words for 'wasting potential' The overnight runs were more than a mere allegory in how to not do anything, while at the same time, having everything available. It is the best pattern we've had all winter here nearing the end. If missing out comes down to nuance then what can we say ... tragedies happen too. The poetic savior hero thing is a human conception - it's possible to just straight up get F in the ass until your dead. Ever hear the joke "Death by Kowabunga" ? well... things didn't end too well for those sailors. Tongue in cheek aside... it's not all mysterious (for me anyway) why these models are failing to organize more meaningful cinema ... I still see that some gradient is plaguing the complexion of the super-synoptic scale... it's like trying to run a -EPO through a pattern that's got too many isohypsis (um .. .height lines; when you see a lot of them, you have a lot of wind, and probably too much so) between N of JB and the Gulf of Mexico. You end up with speed anomaly while trying to have the undulatory base... Kind of weird, and I'm wondering if one of these two looks has to cave the other way in reality. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2019 Author Share Posted February 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well... finally wended our way into a pattern that is more conducive for winter enthusiasts ... Yet, the overnight runs were fantastic art in avoiding realization - really was staggeringly inconsequential relative to all guiding kinematics. You're looking at these guidance' ...clicking through their intervals, watching a most clever, insidious destructive interference at all scales .. as though an actual agenda were at work to keep the outcome as uninspired as is mathematically allowable in a realm of overwhelmingly powerful guiding parametrics. The models would have us believe that a lit match cannot ignite gasoline vapors while mixing said vapors with pure oxygen.. Those are long storied words for 'wasting potential' The overnight runs were more than a mere allegory in how to not do anything, while at the same time, having everything available. It is the best pattern we've had all winter here nearing the end. If missing out comes down to nuance then what can we say ... tragedies happen too. The poetic savior hero thing is a human conception - it's possible to just straight up get F in the ass until your dead. Ever hear the joke "Death by Koabunga" ? well... things didn't end well for those sailors. Tongue in cheek aside... it's not all mysterious (for me anyway) why these models are failing to organize more meaningful cinema ... I still see that some gradient is plaguing the complexion of the super-synoptic scale... it's like trying to run a -EPO through a pattern that's got too many isohypsis (um .. .height lines; when you see a lot of them, you have a lot of wind, and probably too much so) between N of JB and the Gulf of Mexico. You end up with speed anomaly while trying to have the undulatory base... Kind of weird, and I'm wondering if one of these two looks has to cave the other way in reality. Interesting. Looks like a Miller B-east vibe...first pattern typical of a weak el nino all season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like a Miller B-east vibe...first pattern typical of a weak el nino all season. Perhaps ... but, as of last check with NCEP... there's only recently ( ... like, this month) El Nino - Prior to, there never has been ... I mentioned this several weeks ago, that it was delayed? Over these recent several months, at no time had it been abundantly clear... well, actually even suggested really, that the SST/ENSO had sufficiently coupled with the atmospheric circulation medium over the Pacific ... to assume any forcing was/were taking place. That all = El Nada ...haha. As of their most recent publication on Feb 19 they are now saying that the pattern of convection and wind anomalies are more consistent, so that coupling may have finally taken place. The idea that the GEFs ensembles lose it though...getting deeper in to March? I'm not sure either a, if that's rushing a change that is probably going to be slow to evolve seeing as it is now more anchored in that coupled state... or b, normal climo on "weak" warm ENSOs and spring may show that these things terminate quickly in March ... I dunno the latter though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 hours ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: I want to get excited, but I have to be guarded and ready for disappointment. Kinda how my wife feels when we hop in the sack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Strange no one is talking about the weekend threat or early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right ...so unique that it happened in October of 2011 --> 2012 Not in Boston and also not much on March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snow, snowy, snowiest Still seeing rain forecasts this weekend. Where are they getting that from lol The 00z and 06z GFS?.... 12z and 18z yesterday had a coastal for us. Last night moved back towards an inland runner up the heart of NY State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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