Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That depiction is good for all of us...we take. Ofcourse not one this season has worked out like that so....???? Not a bad thing to keep trends in mind. We've been getting the same results, over and over and over again ... ad nauseam. It is of course harder to visualize any solution like that GGEM, let alone ... one that is not the same as that 'over and over and over again' Unfortunately, nature vs human perception of nature ...? They often part company. The trick is, knowing when trend is likely to continue vs when it may be time to let it go... I cannot say personally this is one of those latter times, but, this pattern that is taking hold ( bigger idealized EPO block and so forth...) is uncharted waters, so... Logic dictates the trend is worth evaluating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not a bad thing to keep trends in mind. We've been getting the same results, over and over and over again ... ad nauseam. It is of course harder to visualize any solution like that GGEM, let alone ... one that is not the same as that 'over and over and over again' Unfortunately, nature vs human perception of nature ...? They often part company. The trick is, knowing when trend is likely to continue vs when it may be time to let it go... I cannot say personally this is one of those latter times, but, this pattern that is taking hold ( bigger idealized EPO block and so forth...) is uncharted waters, so... Logic dictates the trend is worth evaluating. Yea, if that block truly does roll over, you can toss seasonal trends. Not to say we have to see a blizzard, but dismissing that based upon past trends would be a fool's errand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Weekend cutter gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Sugarloaf just passed the 200" mark for the season. Still have two more months of snowfall to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Weekend cutter gone. if ur talking about the Euro ..it pretty much k'ode that on the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Euro went from a cutter to a southern slider with snow in the south for this weekend. PV is too strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: if ur talking about the Euro ..it pretty much k'ode that on the 00z run Yea, you’re right. It did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Weekend cutter gone. storm gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro went from a cutter to a southern slider with snow in the south for this weekend. PV is too strong Classic for this winter, everywhere but here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, Spanks45 said: Classic for this winter, everywhere but here... We have the event Wednesday to provide some modest wintry appeal. At least it' won't be washed away on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Nice coastal later in the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Coastal bomb Mar 6 3 runs in a row hinting at a big dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Nice coastal later in the run. I feel like there were a few misses in that run even leading up to that last one at 200 hrs....I wonder if one of those near misses ends up getting us in the mid to short range. There is just so many moving parts that the op and ensembles may not be fully biting on yet. At least it is active and the cold air seems to be here for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Haven’t analyzed how Mar 1-2 would impact Mar 6-7 but on cursory glance I think I’d rather put all my chips on Mar 6-7... much more favorable H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Looks like a late bloomer based on the SLP pretty far east off the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: We have the event Wednesday to provide some modest wintry appeal. At least it' won't be washed away on Saturday. This is true, but I am pretty far SW, the Euro gives me 2-3 inches. A shift north would give me next to nothing...so we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Boston gets over 24 inches of snow through the whole Euro run. Loaded pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 SLP drops 30mb in 24hr. 1008 to 978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just incredible run to run swings on the major guidance, and I’ve been foolishly riding along on this...Going to axe my previous judgments of the early March threat being a “cutter” and move more into a wait a see mode. One thing is for certain—that PV lobe swinging through Alberta around day 4 will continue to be a major source of uncertainty (model error) going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Those last three days of this Euro oper. run look like the model's got some wave/spacing contention issues though - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Oozing potential as the pro’s have mentioned. Have to score a big one in a small window or it’s game over. Hey, philly to nyc did in Jan 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 49 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Sugarloaf just passed the 200" mark for the season. Still have two more months of snowfall to go. What a winter up there deep snow since Mid Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 The more I look at this/that ... the better the terminology comes to mind to describe ... The N/stream, comprised of the SPV fragment, can't get down in latitude fast enough to catch up with and capture the southern stream wave - the southern stream wave is caught up in a velocity rich flow. I.e., too fast. Metaphor: can't get captured and fall into orbit because it is moving along at escape velocity ... heh, I like that. Fitting ... should our last hurrah fail because of this, as I've been bitching about too much gradient and wind speed all winter - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 EPS still a lgt-mdt event this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The more I look at this/that ... the better the terminology comes to mind to describe ... The N/stream, comprised of the SPV fragment, can't get down in latitude fast enough to catch up with and capture the southern stream wave - the southern stream wave is caught up in a velocity rich flow. I.e., too fast. Metaphor: can't get captured and fall into orbit because it is moving along at escape velocity ... heh, I like that. Fitting ... should our last hurrah fail because of this, as I've been bitching about too much gradient and wind speed all winter - For the weekend? Might be a good thing or it’s another low up our fannies. I think better potential is after this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS still a lgt-mdt event this weekend. Is it still a 2 part deal ? Fri and then lull then more Sat night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Is it still a 2 part deal ? Fri and then lull then more Sat night? One part. Friday is off to the south. That still may play a role so needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For the weekend? Might be a good thing or it’s another low up our fannies. I think better potential is after this weekend. nah... speaking to the Euro's D8/9/10 ... this weekend I suspect we're in the early stages of coalescing upon a narrow corridor coastal that may or may not clip the area ... obviously a fluid solution, hence the 'early' description. I've let the ship sail on the Lakes early polarward motion because unless the SPV captures that... it's not going to move at it - heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 56 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Looks like a late bloomer based on the SLP pretty far east off the Carolinas We take late blooms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What a winter up there deep snow since Mid Nov Contemplating going up there next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now