CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Nice storm about to go boom at the end of the euro. 00z suite so far was a little weenieish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Nice storm about to go boom at the end of the euro. 00z suite so far was a little weenieish. You keep beating me to the punch....knowing this season it will all fail, but there is about as exotic a potential as it gets next week. If this were any other season, I'd be pimping that already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You keep beating me to the punch....knowing this season it will all fail, but there is about as exotic potential as it gets nest week. If this were any other season, I'd be pimping that already. I'm on shift tonight...lol. This is what I meant about the looks. I know we are all snake bitten...but it really is a decent look. Best thing to do is wait and see...but the solutions shown are a result of the H5 pattern we are entering for 10-14 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm on shift tonight...lol. This is what I meant about the looks. I know we are all snake bitten...but it really is a decent look. Best thing to do is wait and see...but the solutions shown are a result of the H5 pattern we are entering for 10-14 days or so. I didn't see that on the EPS last night...when did the ridge roll over start showing?. Will mentioned the EPO blocking rolling over today, which is why I was looking. That is about the only way we can get a PNA this season. I would have held off on that post canceling big dog potential had I seen that.....so it will probably turn into a 1978 knowing how I've done this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 That ridge has to roll over, though....that is the only way we have a shot at huge event...aside from the usual bowling ball season caveat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I didn't see that on the EPS last night...when did the ridge roll over start showing?. Will mentioned the EPO blocking rolling over today, which is why I was looking. That is about the only way we can get a PNA this season. I would have held off on that post canceling big dog potential had I seen that.....so it will probably turn into a 1978 knowing how I've done this year. I think fairly recently. I noticed that too last night...but that was more for the later 6-10 day stuff. I think for this weekend, we have that weenie ridging extending WSW from Greenland and then the EPO ridge breaks or folds over. That tries to keep any phasing aspects limited, but the EPS did try to go more miller B. It sort of reignites the baroclinic zone off the SE and develops another low that scoots SE of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Man the GFS is starting to agree with the 228+ hour storm the 00z EURO showed. If only we could get a cold phasing storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 49 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Man the GFS is starting to agree with the 228+ hour storm the 00z EURO showed. If only we could get a cold phasing storm track. Wake me when things are looking good at 28 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 The weekend deal on Mar 1-2 is pretty complex. I still think we may need to watch the front running energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Mar 6-7 one of the best H5 setups we’ve had this season, and now 2 EC op runs in a row...EPS with a signal for both Mar1-2 and Mar6-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 32 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Mar 6-7 one of the best H5 setups we’ve had this season, and now 2 EC op runs in a row... EPS with a signal for both Mar1-2 and Mar6-7 Best H5 setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Yeah I’ve been tongue-in-cheek honking this since 12z yesterday... I’m a suite or 2 away from honking to coworkers.For the first time in a while (ever this season?), we’re not relying on fleeting H5 acrobatics to squeeze something out of a suboptimal setup... this is big dog of yore signal. PNA finally pops and flow buckles for real as soon as the EPO fades.You can never go all in so far out and even with a certain big dog the details will fluctuate significantly, but if this is another 10 day Lucy act this season, it’s the grandest one yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Funny ... like letting the February thread scroll ... days prior to the end of the month, when there is still a system IN February to monitor... will bring on something faster... Anyway, I'm impressed at these huge continuity changes spanning the last three consecutive Euro operational runs re the March 1-3rd period of time. Three runs ago, it carried a deep Lakes cyclone spinning up seiche waves ... with but a paltry commitment to a warm frontal wave ... circa PA to the Del Marva .. Two runs ago, it had a less cohesive low with a more obvious attempt at said secondary, but the whole circumvallate was relocated to the middel/lower Ohio Valley ... as well, the mid level mechanics spread out and a little E. So we get to last night's 00z rendition, and we have almost no inclusion/phasing of the N/stream, and a more southern stream low now scooting ENE of the Mid Atlantic almost too far S to really pose much impact N of PHL at all. This saga reminds me of that system I laughed about 10 days ago... Not sure if anyone recalls... but collectively we were busy divvying up who gets what while the system was in the process of vanishing altogether. I mean it's not 'vanished' per se with this, but those kind of total synoptic morphology(ies) ... really should not lend well at all to any kind of determinism from that particular source. The EPS mean may actually be better in this case, not sure... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Also, what's interesting about the Mar 1-3rd ... regardless of any one particular model... the blend of all available guidance that I've seen really hones in on the pallid western ridge at mid latitudes. As that has collapsed back into the longer seasonal trend of being weak, the coherence for a Lakes cyclone has diminished. If there could be just a little more ridging below the -EPO height island ...that might induce more a subsume of the N/stream again. Anyway, for those looking to hold on to winter appeals at any turn, beginning with lessen the unmitigated injustice to the soul of a west turning low and liquid mist at 40 F ... it's probably a good thing that the PNA part of that may go on to be flat like presently modeled. Crucially, the N/stream stretches as a result ... and lays out along southern Canada, ... Otherwise, Mar 1-3 probably does curled W. early. The reason is because L/W /R layout is wrong with the trough too far west in those previous blends. I'm almost wondering if the whole thing is in the process of a whole scale change ... like, what if the western ridge re-materializes more over the Rockies this week, and suddenly, we're getting a different deal out of it back east. In either case, these Euro run to run changes are hugely demonstrative and yeah...it's not < 5 day wheel-house stuff ...still, those changes spanning those three runs are impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 58 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Yeah I’ve been tongue-in-cheek honking this since 12z yesterday... I’m a suite or 2 away from honking to coworkers. For the first time in a while (ever this season?), we’re not relying on fleeting H5 acrobatics to squeeze something out of a suboptimal setup... this is big dog of yore signal. PNA finally pops and flow buckles for real as soon as the EPO fades. You can never go all in so far out and even with a certain big dog the details will fluctuate significantly, but if this is another 10 day Lucy act this season, it’s the grandest one yet. Yea, this has a legit shot...we get that ridge roll over inside of 5 days, then its time to really honk. Of course, this showed up the day after I posted that no blockbusters are likely this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, this has a legit shot...we get that ridge roll over inside of 5 days, then its time to really honk. Of course, this showed up the day after I posted that no blockbusters are likely this year. Your Safe Ray, that H5 look I give 10-15% this will turn into something more zonal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 47 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Your Safe Ray, that H5 look I give 10-15% this will turn into something more zonal Probably, but this is the time of year where these stable regimes tend to break down as the wavelengths shorten and mass shifts take place. Like I said, if we get that ridge roll over inside of day 5, then it maybe time to take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Gfs looking much better for Friday out of nowhere. Nothing huge, but similar to the CMC now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Gfs is weaker with the lakes cutter for this weekend. Looks like a SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is weaker with the lakes cutter for this weekend No longer a cutter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: No longer a cutter Just like the euro and cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 A few inches Wednesday night. Some light snow Friday, then another light to moderate snow event this weekend. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is weaker with the lakes cutter for this weekend. Looks like a SWFE So another SN to ZR/IP event. Great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, Lava Rock said: So another SN to ZR/IP event. Great Verbatim for KLVA it was all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, Lava Rock said: So another SN to ZR/IP event. Great It’s mostly snow N of the MA Pike on the GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Big snowstorm on the cmc next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 33 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Jeff and Ray approved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 The difference here is/was as hinted before and this run really shows it ... The SPV/fragmentation and N/Stream is backing down on the amount of phasing... I'm glad this run came out this way to help in elucidating that significance; no sooner, and we have a less capture and foisting/wild deepening of a Great Lakes cyclone. That said, it's far from a stable outlook ... particularly at this range duh. But that's a very sensitive flow structure with that much awesome gyre situated precariously by over southern Canada, with it's circumvallate of very high velocity mid level flow. if that feature stays situated there and waits to come through more vestigially like these recent trends... yeah, there could certainly be a quick mover system - talking about the Mar 1-3rd event. The latter one has the benefit ( perhaps ...) of the flow relaxing some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 That depiction is good for all of us...we take. Ofcourse not one this season has worked out like that so....???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now