40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 FEB 23 Sunday's Rains and What Went Wrong in Winter 2018-2019 Yet another bundle of energy trundles up into the mid latitudes well to out west and through the great lakes this weekend, rinse and repeat. This promises to be an even warmer evolution from what we witnessed on Wednesday night, as the antecedent airmass will not be as cold, thus will put up less resistance to the the southwesterly flow aloft eradicating it. Energy will continue to focus to your west, thus limiting snowfall until either: 1) A ridge of high pressure develops over the west coast, causing the energy to dig southward. 2) High latitude blocking materializes in the vicinity of greenland and the Davis straight, which would force the energy south, as well. A very cold antecedent airmass can mitigate this somewhat, and fore a redevelopment to the east, near the coast. This is what took place on Wednesday night. However since the airmass in place over the area this weekend is not very cold, the low in the mid levels is not transferring to the coast until it is past our latitude. Thus the ski areas are saved. Sound familiar? Perhaps locales to the north of the Mass pike in our region will see a few flakes near the onset. Regional Evolution Note that as the precipitation begins later tonight and early Sunday morning, temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere are already approaching the freezing point, which greatly limits any potential accumulations to primarily north of the Mass/New Hampshire border, which will be quite light at that. The precipitation only runs in advance of the mid level warmth by a very slim margin. Ice should not be much of an issue since the low level cold will not be as impressive of as tenacious as Wednesday night. On Thursday when the First Call was made, it appeared as though there could be some slight accumulations north of the Mass pike. First Call, issued 11pm Thursday. However it now appears as though most accumulation will be relegated to central and northern New England. Final Call: At this point, it is entirely fair to question whether some of the energy that has been ejected into the west all season long will ever begin making to the east coast to produce a coastal system. More of the Same Ahead In a complete reversal from this fall, the short answer from Eastern Mass Weather is "no". While it is possible that there may yet be significant snowfalls for the area, which climo dictates that there will be, we still see no signs of either significant east coast ridging, or north atlantic blocking. Here is the latest European ensemble suite. It is noted that while some semblance of a PNA ridge out west attempts to develop, it remains both fleeing and insufficient to prevent jet energy from consolidating and digging too far to the west. While the European suite is not infallible, and has in fact led us astray many times this season, there exists no "smoking gun" or impetus for change. One of the most ineffective el nino events on record is waning, and there are no signs that the polar stratosphere will warm. What went "wrong" will be discussed more extensively in this spring's outlooks verification analysis, however we believe that the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event that took place early this season was quite different from the one that led to last season's record March snows. And it ultimately worked to enhance factors inimical to high latitude blocking this season, and act as a source of deconstructive interference for mechanisms that would have assisted in the development of blocking otherwise. Eastern Mass Weather not only failed to foresee the development of a sudden stratospheric warming this season, but it was also poorly diagnosed once it became obvious that one would occur. It was this, in conjunction with an el nino that never really manifested itself into the tropical forcing, that proved fatal to the success of the winter outlook. While we correctly diagnosed the meager ability of the el nino to impart an influence on the tropical forcing regime and hemispheric pattern, as evidenced by the recognition of the paltry MEI and inclusion of the 1969 analog, we interpreted this as affirmation that the event would remain weak, and thus favorable for increased blocking and southern New England snows. However instead of asserting itself as weak events typically do, it never asserted itself at all, thus there was no impetus for a change from the residual la nina forcing from 2018. We believe that this also took place in 1969, on the heels of a cool-neutral ENSO winter, however intense blocking proved instrumental in the historic February that evolved across the area. It is believed that the recovery of the polar vortex in the wake of the SSW that took place on New Year's day proved fatal to the development of any blocking as the second half of the season evolved. And since the SSW was centered on the other side of the globe, and not over the north atlantic, it only served to enhance the residual la nina like intraseasonal MJO signal, which also proved inimical to the development of blocking. In Summary: 1) El Nino peak ONI was well forecast, however the implications of the meager MEI that was correctly deemed as analogous to 1969 was poorly diagnosed as proof that el nino would remain weak. It was non existent, thus the residual la nina intraseasonal MJO signal was enhanced. We believe that this was intimately connected to the poorly forecast and poorly diagnosed SSW. 2) Eastern Mass Weather did recognize the November Scandinavian blocking as a precursor to a season with a great proclivity for poleward heat flux/transfer...another parallel to 1969. We simply interpreted this as a BIG indicator for blocking. However this may have worked out TOO well. A SSW was NOT expected, but one did occur near the onset of the New Year. First of all, this probably served to shorten the duration of the favorable early December period, as the period preceding SSW events is usually hostile too blocking. Additionally, once it materialized, the problem was that unlike last season, this SSW was not focused over the north atlantic, but rather the other side of the globe. Thus it did NOT promote NAO blocking, but instead amplified the hostile MJO, which due to no show el nino, was mired in la nina like phases like 1969. This also set up the recovery of the PV, which in conjunction with la nina like MJO worked to deconstructively interfere with second half blocking typical of weak modoki el nino seasons. It was a very flawed outlook that still provided plenty of instructional value, thus it will benefit future outlooks. Unfortunately, that if of little solace to southern New England snow lovers this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Looks like March comes in like a lion....with a driving rainstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Hard to believe we are staring at March now. Hoping to see the modeled warmth come to fruition and extend out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: Looks like March comes in like a lion....with a driving rainstorm. This pattern/storm track has been in place since November, it's been amazingly stable. The only difference between all rain vs any frozen/snow combo was how much arctic air was present prior to the cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: Looks like March comes in like a lion....with a driving rainstorm. Remember when the euro showed a 2 foot snowstorm next week? Awful model this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Remember when the euro showed a 2 foot snowstorm next week? Awful model this winter Dude it was like 8-9 days out. WTF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Dude it was like 8-9 days out. WTF. Lol. I can't believe he actually posted that. Even for metfan that is cringe-worthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Dude it was like 8-9 days out. WTF. Models had a nice PNA ridge. Now they are losing it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Models had a nice PNA ridge. Now they are losing it . Like yourself and many others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Like yourself and many others... Weenies gonna ween I'm about to cancel my stormvista subscription. Winter is about over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Weenies gonna ween I'm about to cancel my stormvista subscription. Winter is about over. I usually go until april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Hard to believe we are staring at March now. Hoping to see the modeled warmth come to fruition and extend out. What modeled warmth? Looks like 40s over 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 28 minutes ago, dryslot said: I usually go until april. As you should up there. People on the water south of 40N like Snow88 should have cancelled it in December. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 These are the type of patterns that are stable for years....now it's the time to plan your Sierra ski trip for next year, it'll be good again out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Dude it was like 8-9 days out. WTF. 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol. I can't believe he actually posted that. Even for metfan that is cringe-worthy. And by all objective measures the EC is curb stomping the GFS this winter. When the GFS wins a period it barely edges out the Euro, but when it fails boy does it fail. Look at the dropout around the 1/20 sleet bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What modeled warmth? Looks like 40s over 20s I see 50s popping up in the long range towards the 2nd 1/3 of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Those results are fairly similar for different heights and different lead times too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 I don’t like the early March threat at all. Hoping/expecting this turns into a bonafied cutter (way west) and maybe then we can get something to develop along the BZ after this cuts off and stacks over Manitoba or western Ontario. It’s a long shot, but I’m afraid that’s all we have with this one right now...End of the month threat looks like congrats Dakota’s. - - EPO - - PNA with a robust shortwave showing up across guidance in the Pacific Northwest. Pretty epic cold dump coming to the western CONUS.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Euro is snow into the interior now, esp central and northern areas vs torch at 00z. Speaking of this weekend. A bit more secondary development offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Author Share Posted February 24, 2019 4 hours ago, dryslot said: Like yourself and many others... That is the truth, though....its why we heard "best look all winter"...which has now morphed into more "events"....AKA more of the same. The difference was PNA ...which is doing its best NAO lke vanishing act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is the truth, though....its why we heard "best look all winter"...which has now morphed into more "events"....AKA more of the same. The difference was PNA ...which is doing its best NAO lke vanishing act. And looks to continue with the theme, Mixed events here south and more snow to the north here in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is snow into the interior now, esp central and northern areas vs torch at 00z. Speaking of this weekend. A bit more secondary development offshore. Much better run this go around . Still think it's a mixed precip event everywhere, as the pattern is the same type of look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2019 Author Share Posted February 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: And looks to continue with the theme, Mixed events here south and more snow to the north here in NNE Yea, if I were you, I wouldn't be losing it either. But I'm beyond that...I just want out. Not asking for a biggie....just an outtie. Please end the season and stop the cold rain-cj shuffle. Just hit reset button next fall and try again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Much better run this go around . Still think it's a mixed precip event everywhere, as the pattern is the same type of look. Are you saying don’t count on the 17” shown for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, if I were you, I wouldn't be losing it either. But I'm beyond that...I just want out. Not asking for a biggie....just an outtie. Please end the season and stop the cold rain-cj shuffle. Just hit reset button next fall and try again. Nickel and diming to normal climo, Amazing we haven't had a 12" storm up here for my locale thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is snow into the interior now, esp central and northern areas vs torch at 00z. Speaking of this weekend. A bit more secondary development offshore. AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is the truth, though....its why we heard "best look all winter"...which has now morphed into more "events"....AKA more of the same. The difference was PNA ...which is doing its best NAO lke vanishing act. It’s nit exactly the same look. I like the battle of airmasses playing out as we head later in the season. I wouldnt expect a big one, but patterns like this have brought pretty larger events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 March 2nd is def looking a lot better on the EPS today. Trying to trend Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Only 240 hrs away, lock it up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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