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March, 2019


snowman19
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3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Relatively, sounds good for NYC if it improved from 0z. It was already a fairly close call. Sounds like a couple more adjustments could get us there. 

Seems like March is the new February, folks. Pretty cool that we've basically been getting an extra month of winter lately. 

Yea at least it didn't go more NW and if anything ticked a bit SE. I would expect Euro/CMC probably are most likely given this winter to be closest to the solution, it's obviously not a good outcome for the metro but not a terrible outcome    

 

The Euro/CMC also seem colder than the American models on the Sat Morning storm

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29 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

I think the storm follows the boundary layer of the temps. As of now it looks like the Euro is the most likely scenario.

Yea I never really like storms for the coast when the boundary level starts out above freezing, of course that can be overcome with a rapidly deepening storm to the SE but the way this winter has been going that unlikely  

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19 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM way SE for Sat Morning compared to it's last run. Not sure how this may impact the other storm  

It’s so far SE that the metro gets less than an inch total from it https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019022818&fh=48

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s so far SE that the metro gets less than an inch total from it 

That system is gonna continue to amp.  This is just NAM junk.  The Euro and EPS has continued ticking NW with it.  It’ll be a 30-50 mile inland snow event when all is said and done and the coast should be primarily rain.  This is why I’m banking on Sunday night and Monday being a significant snow for most of the area.  The Saturday system will likely force the track just far enough SE for Sunday.  

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That system is gonna continue to amp.  This is just NAM junk.  The Euro and EPS has continued ticking NW with it.  It’ll be a 30-50 mile inland snow event when all is said and done and the coast should be primarily rain.  This is why I’m banking on Sunday night and Monday being a significant snow for most of the area.  The Saturday system will likely force the track just far enough SE for Sunday.  

Yea NAM is a disaster too far south with storm 1 for anything meaningful for the metro area too far north and rain for storm 2, tossing it for now...  

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z ICON shows you what an amped Saturday does to help Sunday night 

Question, as someone who has only a passing grasp of this stuff, if nothing has really changed about all the factors needed for a decent snow this year, why would we expect this to be any different from the multiple disappointments so far? Serious question.

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Gfs is actually a nice snow event for the city for Saturday looks to be a good 3-5 inches.

 

edit: snowgoose said this and it seems like he’s right saturdays storm needs to be very strong and dynamic for the Sunday night event to be weak and a good snowstorm. And gfs is south for Sunday night which looks good haven’t seen the next panel but so far so good

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6 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

Gfs is actually a nice snow event for the city for Saturday looks to be a good 3-5 inches.

 

edit: snowgoose said this and it seems like he’s right saturdays storm needs to be very strong and dynamic for the Sunday night event to be weak and a good snowstorm. And gfs is south for Sunday night which looks good haven’t seen the next panel but so far so good

It's not 3-5 inches but if the dynamics are strong it could push the 850 line down enough to flip the city to snow Saturday morning, I'd favor SNE for an accumulating snow event with that system

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

It's not 3-5 inches but if the dynamics are strong it could push the 850 line down enough to flip the city to snow Saturday morning, I'd favor SNE for an accumulating snow event with that system

It is 3-5 considering the strength of the low and the poor gfs thermals, you got 6 hours of heavy snow in around the city 

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Just now, WEATHERMINATOR said:

It is 3-5 considering the strength of the low and the poor gfs thermals

I think at this point any solution you can come up with is still on the table for both Saturday and Sunday/Monday have to have an open mind in this type of setup for obvious reasons....

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Just now, WEATHERMINATOR said:

It is 3-5 considering the strength of the low and the poor gfs thermals, you got 6 hours of heavy snow in around the city 

The upper levels are too warm with the first storm and the city is not in the best location for that one, the best dynamics would be SNE and possibly even eastern LI  

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4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The upper levels are too warm with the first storm and the city is not in the best location for that one, the best dynamics would be SNE and possibly even eastern LI  

I disagree I think nyc and east is in the good dynamics if you take the gfs solution. The gfs FV3 is a string out mess for Saturday resulting a mix Sunday night. Obviously we have no consensus for neither storms yet 

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