HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Relatively, sounds good for NYC if it improved from 0z. It was already a fairly close call. Sounds like a couple more adjustments could get us there. Seems like March is the new February, folks. Pretty cool that we've basically been getting an extra month of winter lately. Yea at least it didn't go more NW and if anything ticked a bit SE. I would expect Euro/CMC probably are most likely given this winter to be closest to the solution, it's obviously not a good outcome for the metro but not a terrible outcome The Euro/CMC also seem colder than the American models on the Sat Morning storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Some snow on the euro tomorrow and Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I think the storm follows the boundary layer of the temps. As of now it looks like the Euro is the most likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 29 minutes ago, weathermedic said: I think the storm follows the boundary layer of the temps. As of now it looks like the Euro is the most likely scenario. Yea I never really like storms for the coast when the boundary level starts out above freezing, of course that can be overcome with a rapidly deepening storm to the SE but the way this winter has been going that unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 NAM way SE for Sat Morning compared to it's last run. Not sure how this may impact the other storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM way SE for Sat Morning compared to it's last run. Not sure how this may impact the other storm The LP is north and stronger, precip is south and colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, mikem81 said: The LP is north and stronger, precip is south and colder... The LP is stronger but def not north. If im reading it right it intensifies faster but scoots east faster and all the precip gets moved toward the center of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 19 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM way SE for Sat Morning compared to it's last run. Not sure how this may impact the other storm It’s so far SE that the metro gets less than an inch total from it https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019022818&fh=48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s so far SE that the metro gets less than an inch total from it That system is gonna continue to amp. This is just NAM junk. The Euro and EPS has continued ticking NW with it. It’ll be a 30-50 mile inland snow event when all is said and done and the coast should be primarily rain. This is why I’m banking on Sunday night and Monday being a significant snow for most of the area. The Saturday system will likely force the track just far enough SE for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That system is gonna continue to amp. This is just NAM junk. The Euro and EPS has continued ticking NW with it. It’ll be a 30-50 mile inland snow event when all is said and done and the coast should be primarily rain. This is why I’m banking on Sunday night and Monday being a significant snow for most of the area. The Saturday system will likely force the track just far enough SE for Sunday. Yea NAM is a disaster too far south with storm 1 for anything meaningful for the metro area too far north and rain for storm 2, tossing it for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Its amped at end of run for sunday night. rain like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Nam keeps amping up the wave before the big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam keeps amping up the wave before the big storm. What big storm? Monday’s rain storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam keeps amping up the wave before the big storm. Amped but way Southeast, we need it to be more northwest to help the next storm track further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 18Z ICON shows you what an amped Saturday does to help Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: 18Z ICON shows you what an amped Saturday does to help Sunday night That’s the best look yet. But it’s too bad it’s icon. It’s not the worst though in my opinion. Navgem is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 18Z ICON shows you what an amped Saturday does to help Sunday night Question, as someone who has only a passing grasp of this stuff, if nothing has really changed about all the factors needed for a decent snow this year, why would we expect this to be any different from the multiple disappointments so far? Serious question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 19 minutes ago, David-LI said: What big storm? Monday’s rain storm? Saturday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 18 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Amped but way Southeast, we need it to be more northwest to help the next storm track further south. It's been trending northwest on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Saturday event I don’t like saturdays event because the true cold air kinda gets stale. I like Sunday nights event more. Icon is a perfect example how we can get a real nice snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said: I don’t like saturdays event because the true cold air kinda gets stale. I like Sunday nights event more. Icon is a perfect example how we can get a real nice snowstorm. Oh yea Sunday nights event has real potential if we get the right track, it's wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 GFS exactly what we need tomorrow night, really amped wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Gfs is actually a nice snow event for the city for Saturday looks to be a good 3-5 inches. edit: snowgoose said this and it seems like he’s right saturdays storm needs to be very strong and dynamic for the Sunday night event to be weak and a good snowstorm. And gfs is south for Sunday night which looks good haven’t seen the next panel but so far so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Gonna keep an eye on Saturday, very sneaky coastal event. It'll be a close call for us. The quicker and more amped it gets the better for us and for the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Sunday storm looks good on GFS, very close call but verbatim looks like all snow from the City and NW, LI switches to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said: Gfs is actually a nice snow event for the city for Saturday looks to be a good 3-5 inches. edit: snowgoose said this and it seems like he’s right saturdays storm needs to be very strong and dynamic for the Sunday night event to be weak and a good snowstorm. And gfs is south for Sunday night which looks good haven’t seen the next panel but so far so good It's not 3-5 inches but if the dynamics are strong it could push the 850 line down enough to flip the city to snow Saturday morning, I'd favor SNE for an accumulating snow event with that system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: It's not 3-5 inches but if the dynamics are strong it could push the 850 line down enough to flip the city to snow Saturday morning, I'd favor SNE for an accumulating snow event with that system It is 3-5 considering the strength of the low and the poor gfs thermals, you got 6 hours of heavy snow in around the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, WEATHERMINATOR said: It is 3-5 considering the strength of the low and the poor gfs thermals I think at this point any solution you can come up with is still on the table for both Saturday and Sunday/Monday have to have an open mind in this type of setup for obvious reasons.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, WEATHERMINATOR said: It is 3-5 considering the strength of the low and the poor gfs thermals, you got 6 hours of heavy snow in around the city The upper levels are too warm with the first storm and the city is not in the best location for that one, the best dynamics would be SNE and possibly even eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The upper levels are too warm with the first storm and the city is not in the best location for that one, the best dynamics would be SNE and possibly even eastern LI I disagree I think nyc and east is in the good dynamics if you take the gfs solution. The gfs FV3 is a string out mess for Saturday resulting a mix Sunday night. Obviously we have no consensus for neither storms yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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