NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: A lot of focus on the Sunday Night storm but the storm tomorrow night/Sat Morning starting to look like possibly a decent little event too although precip type a bit iffy Real Iffy - the whole setup favors the storm on Sunday tracking too close to NYC metro to get a significant snowstorm as of right now...…...Early Friday and early Saturdays are nuisance events...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Real Iffy - the whole setup favors the storm on Sunday tracking too close to NYC metro to get a significant snowstorm as of right now...…...Early Friday and early Saturdays are nuisance events...... Yea probably a nuisance event and does look like mostly rain for the city/mix for the suburbs, I think the big storm is a close call, right now most models show snow for the city but we all know the dreaded NW trend is a real possibility so it's wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea probably a nuisance event, I think the big storm is a close call, right now most models show snow for the city but we all know the dreaded NW trend is a real possibility so it's wait and see There is a way to get a snowstorm here out of the Sunday night/Monday system - I thought the 12Z 84 hour NAM had an interesting look to it - (AND I KNOW I SHOULDN'T BE LOOKING AT THE NAM PAST 60 HOURS !) if the southern energy is delayed and the cold enough air is allowed to build further south maybe the storm will track more to the southeast of us - but that Low in southern Canada in the NAM is not a good look unless it moves out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: There is a way to get a snowstorm here out of the Sunday night/Monday system - I thought the 12Z 84 hour NAM had an interesting look to it - (AND I KNOW I SHOULDN'T BE LOOKING AT THE NAM PAST 60 HOURS !) if the southern energy is delayed and the cold enough air is allowed to build further south maybe the storm will track more to the southeast of us - but that Low in southern Canada in the NAM is not a good look unless it moves out of the way. The stronger Saturday’s event the more south Sunday nights event will go. So I think you’ll see the models catch on to that idea imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: There is a way to get a snowstorm here out of the Sunday night/Monday system - I thought the 12Z 84 hour NAM had an interesting look to it - (AND I KNOW I SHOULDN'T BE LOOKING AT THE NAM PAST 60 HOURS !) if the southern energy is delayed and the cold enough air is allowed to build further south maybe the storm will track more to the southeast of us - but that Low in southern Canada in the NAM is not a good look unless it moves out of the way. Yea the antecedent airmass is pretty crappy with this, the NAM is pretty far south with the track and the city is still right at the rain/snow line. This is a complete thread the needle situation for the coast to get a snowstorm out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 ICON trended a bit SE and weaker for Sunday Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 This will be a pretty significant storm for the interior. We are so close to cashing in but you have to follow pattern this winter where we get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, NycStormChaser said: This will be a pretty significant storm for the interior. We are so close to cashing in but you have to follow pattern this winter where we get screwed. ECMWF is the most NW of any model right now and it did come SE at 0Z compared to it's 12Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: ECMWF is the most NW of any model right now and it did come SE at 0Z compared to it's 12Z run Agreed but at this point out I would personally trust the Euro more than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, NycStormChaser said: Agreed but at this point out I would personally trust the Euro more than others. I personally don't trust any 96 hours out. The ECM showed over an inch of freezing rain for NYC with the 1/19 event like 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: I personally don't trust any 96 hours out. The ECM showed over an inch of freezing rain for NYC with the 1/19 event like 72 hours out. Euro is the best model but it has been caving to the gfs lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 GFS looks north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 38 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said: The stronger Saturday’s event the more south Sunday nights event will go. So I think you’ll see the models catch on to that idea imo Both systems ticked a bit north and more amped on this run of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Both systems ticked a bit north and more amped on this run of the GFS It's close but 12zGFS does manage to give NYC a good 6 inch snowstorm, which is better than the 6z run showed. GGEM did come in warmer though and changes NYC over to some heavy rain after some snow at the start. This continues to be a very close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, winterwx21 said: It's close but GFS does manage to give NYC a good 6 inch snowstorm. GGEM did come in warmer though and changes NYC over to some heavy rain after some snow at the start. This continues to be a very close call. It's going to be a close call for NYC metro. NW of 95 looks to do well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's going to be a close call for NYC metro. NW of 95 looks to do well. now if this was only one day away instead of 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Old FFS ticked NW; new GFs ticked SE. go figure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It's close but 12zGFS does manage to give NYC a good 6 inch snowstorm, which is better than the 6z run showed. GGEM did come in warmer though and changes NYC over to some heavy rain after some snow at the start. This continues to be a very close call. Not optimistic for this near the coast so far. The trend with these is typically more amped at the end, especially with the SE ridge trying to stay stout. Cutters and huggers have been common this season. I’d say it’s equal chances complete washout for the city and coast or some decent snow before changing over to a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Guys I made the threads for these two upcoming storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Not optimistic for this near the coast so far. The trend with these is typically more amped at the end, especially with the SE ridge trying to stay stout. Cutters and huggers have been common this season. I’d say it’s equal chances complete washout for the city and coast or some decent snow before changing over to a washout. There’s no chance if a snow to rain event with this. It’s either all snow, all rain or snow to rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 This time of year is why it's better to be in SNE than here. We'll get too crappy rain or white rain events and an interior snowstorm. I highly doubt this changes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There’s no chance if a snow to rain event with this. It’s either all snow, all rain or snow to rain huh? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 37 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There’s no chance if a snow to rain event with this. It’s either all snow, all rain or snow to rain is this a yogiism ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: huh? Typo at the end. If you’re near the coast the Sunday night storm has 3 possibilities. All rain (least likely), all snow (more likely), rain to snow (most likely). Starting as snow and going over to rain is remote on this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Typo at the end. If you’re near the coast the Sunday night storm has 3 possibilities. All rain (least likely), all snow (more likely), rain to snow (most likely). Starting as snow and going over to rain is remote on this event how about sleet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 38 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Typo at the end. If you’re near the coast the Sunday night storm has 3 possibilities. All rain (least likely), all snow (more likely), rain to snow (most likely). Starting as snow and going over to rain is remote on this event That makes more sense now - thanks for the clarification! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: 12z Euro? still NW of all other guidance except the canadian. Not good for NYC, but slightly SE of 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Typo at the end. If you’re near the coast the Sunday night storm has 3 possibilities. All rain (least likely), all snow (more likely), rain to snow (most likely). Starting as snow and going over to rain is remote on this event I get what you are saying for the coast because of the surface temps however I do think it could be a wet snow to rain scenario. CMC is showing a snow to rain scenario, GFS looks like rain to snow to rain to snow or something along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: still NW of all other guidance except the canadian. Not good for NYC, but slightly SE of 0Z Relatively, sounds good for NYC if it improved from 0z. It was already a fairly close call. Sounds like a couple more adjustments could get us there. Seems like March is the new February, folks. Pretty cool that we've basically been getting an extra month of winter lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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