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March, 2019


snowman19
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11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

A lot of focus on the Sunday Night storm but the storm tomorrow night/Sat Morning starting to look like possibly a decent little event too although precip type a bit iffy   

Real Iffy - the whole setup favors the storm on Sunday tracking too close to NYC metro to get a significant snowstorm as of right now...…...Early Friday and early Saturdays are nuisance events......

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9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Real Iffy - the whole setup favors the storm on Sunday tracking too close to NYC metro to get a significant snowstorm as of right now...…...Early Friday and early Saturdays are nuisance events......

Yea probably a nuisance event and does look like mostly rain for the city/mix for the suburbs, I think the big storm is a close call, right now most models show snow for the city but we all know the dreaded NW trend is a real possibility so it's wait and see  

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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea probably a nuisance event, I think the big storm is a close call, right now most models show snow for the city but we all know the dreaded NW trend is a real possibility so it's wait and see  

There is a way to get a snowstorm here out of the Sunday night/Monday system - I thought the 12Z 84 hour NAM had an interesting look to it - (AND I KNOW I SHOULDN'T BE LOOKING AT THE NAM PAST 60 HOURS !) if the southern energy is delayed and the cold enough air is allowed to build  further south maybe the storm will track more to the southeast of us - but that Low in southern Canada in the NAM is not a good look unless it moves out of the way.

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

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5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

There is a way to get a snowstorm here out of the Sunday night/Monday system - I thought the 12Z 84 hour NAM had an interesting look to it - (AND I KNOW I SHOULDN'T BE LOOKING AT THE NAM PAST 60 HOURS !) if the southern energy is delayed and the cold enough air is allowed to build  further south maybe the storm will track more to the southeast of us - but that Low in southern Canada in the NAM is not a good look unless it moves out of the way.

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

The stronger Saturday’s event the more south Sunday nights event will go. So I think you’ll see the models catch on to that idea imo

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6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

There is a way to get a snowstorm here out of the Sunday night/Monday system - I thought the 12Z 84 hour NAM had an interesting look to it - (AND I KNOW I SHOULDN'T BE LOOKING AT THE NAM PAST 60 HOURS !) if the southern energy is delayed and the cold enough air is allowed to build  further south maybe the storm will track more to the southeast of us - but that Low in southern Canada in the NAM is not a good look unless it moves out of the way.

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

Yea the antecedent airmass is pretty crappy with this, the NAM is pretty far south with the track and the city is still right at the rain/snow line. This is a complete thread the needle situation for the coast to get a snowstorm out of this. 

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9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Both systems ticked a bit north and more amped on this run of the GFS

It's close but 12zGFS does manage to give NYC a good 6 inch snowstorm, which is better than the 6z run showed. GGEM did come in warmer though and changes NYC over to some heavy rain after some snow at the start. This continues to be a very close call.

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11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It's close but 12zGFS does manage to give NYC a good 6 inch snowstorm, which is better than the 6z run showed. GGEM did come in warmer though and changes NYC over to some heavy rain after some snow at the start. This continues to be a very close call.

Not optimistic for this near the coast so far. The trend with these is typically more amped at the end, especially with the SE ridge trying to stay stout. Cutters and huggers have been common this season. I’d say it’s equal chances complete washout for the city and coast or some decent snow before changing over to a washout. 

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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not optimistic for this near the coast so far. The trend with these is typically more amped at the end, especially with the SE ridge trying to stay stout. Cutters and huggers have been common this season. I’d say it’s equal chances complete washout for the city and coast or some decent snow before changing over to a washout. 

There’s no chance if a snow to rain event with this.  It’s either all snow, all rain or snow to rain 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Typo at the end.  If you’re near the coast the Sunday night storm has 3 possibilities.  All rain (least likely), all snow (more likely), rain to snow (most likely).  Starting as snow and going over to rain is remote on this event  

how about sleet ?

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38 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Typo at the end.  If you’re near the coast the Sunday night storm has 3 possibilities.  All rain (least likely), all snow (more likely), rain to snow (most likely).  Starting as snow and going over to rain is remote on this event  

That makes more sense now - thanks for the clarification!

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Typo at the end.  If you’re near the coast the Sunday night storm has 3 possibilities.  All rain (least likely), all snow (more likely), rain to snow (most likely).  Starting as snow and going over to rain is remote on this event  

I get what you are saying for the coast because of the surface temps however I do think it could be a wet snow to rain scenario. CMC is showing a snow to rain scenario, GFS looks like rain to snow to rain to snow or something along those lines. 

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2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

still NW of all other guidance except the canadian. Not good for  NYC, but slightly SE of 0Z

Relatively, sounds good for NYC if it improved from 0z. It was already a fairly close call. Sounds like a couple more adjustments could get us there. 

Seems like March is the new February, folks. Pretty cool that we've basically been getting an extra month of winter lately. 

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