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March, 2019


snowman19
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11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like another potential coastal storm for our area is down the tubes. I will give it until the 12z runs tomorrow but otherwise this threat looks like its over as of now.

This ones been cooked for a while. Absolutely nothing preventing it from escaping. It’s been an amazingly good erosion season for our beaches. It’s not often you head into the warm season with beaches in such great shape 

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What a nice day today turned out to be. It was generally in the high 60's here but I did see 70 on the dashboard on the south side of Danbury. A week of low humidity and slight breeze every day has really dried the surface out nicely. The ground is very soft but there's pretty much no mud which is a surprise considering how wet it was a week ago. Only the biggest parking lot snowbanks are still holding on other than a couple of large banks in driveways that are north facing and always in the shade but I think those will go bye bye in another day or three.

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Springlike warmth prevailed across much of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions today. High temperatures included: Albany: 69°; Allentown: 77°; Atlantic City: 68°; Baltimore: 77°; Binghamton: 62°; Boston: 67°; Bridgeport: 63°; Harrisburg: 76°; Hartford: 70°; Islip: 62°; New York City: 70°; Newark: 71°; Philadelphia: 75°; Poughkeepsie: 71°; Providence: 63°; Scranton: 72°; Trenton: 76°; Washington, DC: 79°; Wilmington, DE: 76°; and, Worcester: 64°.

Tomorrow will see cooler air push into the region. Monday, will start April off with colder than normal readings.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -6.94 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.931. The AO has now been positive for 51 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. There is strong ensemble support for the AO to go negative in early April.

Since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°). That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). Consequently, it is likely that the April 1-10 period will wind up somewhat warmer than normal even as the period starts on a colder than normal note.

On March 29, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.568 (RMM). The amplitude was slightly higher than the March 28-adjusted figure of 0.525.

Despite today's warmth, March will very likely finish 0.7° to 0.9° below normal. However, April will likely be warmer than normal and possibly several degrees warmer than normal. The highest probability of a colder than normal April exists over the southern and central Plains States.

It also remains likely that the first 10 days of April could be wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1981, April cases with an ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.50°C or above have had a higher frequency of large precipitation (1.00" or more) events. At New York City, the frequency of such events was approximately 160% of climatology. At Boston, it was nearly 120% of climatology.

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17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Despite today's warmth, March will very likely finish 0.7° to 0.9° below normal. However, April will likely be warmer than normal and possibly several degrees warmer than normal. The highest probability of a colder than normal April exists over the southern and central Plains States.

It also remains likely that the first 10 days of April could be wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1981, April cases with an ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.50°C or above have had a higher frequency of large precipitation (1.00" or more) events. At New York City, the frequency of such events was approximately 160% of climatology. At Boston, it was nearly 120% of climatology.

As long as next Sunday is dry and comfortable in the LHV a little wetness is all good by me ;) 

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3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like another potential coastal storm for our area is down the tubes. I will give it until the 12z runs tomorrow but otherwise this threat looks like its over as of now.

That's a huge AO drop though, I think a coastal or a brush by is still on the table. 

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71 was my high today, though much of the afternoon was cloudy and rather blustery, which tempered the warmth. Caught my first couple largemouth of the season in my pond this evening... they were big fans of the most basic soft plastic jig I could fashion from renegade bits of tackle left on the barn floor over the winter.

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28 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Heard my first peeper of the season last night.  He was all alone out there.  Funny because last year I had a "lone peeper" as well.

It's a bit early for me to be hearing them compared to years prior.

I’ve heard them here for the past three weeks. They are like the first sign of spring. 

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33 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

I’ve heard them here for the past three weeks. They are like the first sign of spring. 

Wow that's impressive, I usually don't hear them until the beginning of April (maybe the tail end of March like this year).  I love that sound, because you just know spring is coming.  Then you get the grey tree frogs in the Summer.

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5 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Heard my first peeper of the season last night.  He was all alone out there.  Funny because last year I had a "lone peeper" as well.

It's a bit early for me to be hearing them compared to years prior.

Yeah, Friday night the peepers were out in force here for the first time this year. 

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14 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This ones been cooked for a while. Absolutely nothing preventing it from escaping. It’s been an amazingly good erosion season for our beaches. It’s not often you head into the warm season with beaches in such great shape 

yeah..i was down to my beach in west hampton dunes and it looks to be 

in great shape..nice and wide with no signs of any real erosion issues.

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March continues the 2010’s cold streak with 7 years colder than normal. But the 3 warm ones were some of the warmest on record. The November and March departures mirrored each other 9 out of 10 years. This was the ultimate bookend year with the heaviest snows in November and March.

 NYC

Season...Nov....Mar

18-19.....-3.3.....-0.9

17-18.....-1.1.....-2.4

16-17.....+2.1....-3.3

15-16.....+5.1....+6.4

14-15.....-2.4.....-4.4

13-14.....-2.4......-4.8

12-13.....-3.8......-2.4

 11-12....+4.2.....+8.4

10-11.....+0.2.....-0.2

 09-10....+3.4.....+5.7

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9 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Heard my first peeper of the season last night.  He was all alone out there.  Funny because last year I had a "lone peeper" as well.

It's a bit early for me to be hearing them compared to years prior.

No frogs near me, but I saw my first mosquito two days ago.

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12 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Heard my first peeper of the season last night.  He was all alone out there.  Funny because last year I had a "lone peeper" as well.

It's a bit early for me to be hearing them compared to years prior.

What the heck is a peeper ? I grew up in Bklyn and the only peepers I ever heard of were = 

peep·er1
/ˈpēpər/
noun
 
  1. a person who peeps at someone or something, especially in a voyeuristic way.
     
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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

March continues the 2010’s cold streak with 7 years colder than normal. But the 3 warm ones were some of the warmest on record. The November and March departures mirrored each other 9 out of 10 years. This was the ultimate bookend year with the heaviest snows in November and March.

 NYC

Season...Nov....Mar

18-19.....-3.3.....-0.9

17-18.....-1.1.....-2.4

16-17.....+2.1....-3.3

15-16.....+5.1....+6.4

14-15.....-2.4.....-4.4

13-14.....-2.4......-4.8

12-13.....-3.8......-2.4

 11-12....+4.2.....+8.4

10-11.....+0.2.....-0.2

 09-10....+3.4.....+5.7

Have liked the cold March's of late but not the mild Feb's.

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4 hours ago, Cfa said:

No frogs near me, but I saw my first mosquito two days ago.

I think it was March '16 when I saw mosquitos during the 2nd week of March.

1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

What the heck is a peeper ? I grew up in Bklyn and the only peepers I ever heard of were = 

peep·er1
/ˈpēpər/
noun
 
  1. a person who peeps at someone or something, especially in a voyeuristic way.
     

Lol.  A "peeper," which is short for spring peeper, is a type of chorus frog.  They're very tiny and mark the arrival of spring.

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

Have liked the cold March's of late but not the mild Feb's.

Pretty extreme February temperature reversal following 2015. The summer version was all the record heat following the cool 2009 summer. An outlier near record cold month or two has been an invitation to record warmth later on.

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