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March, 2019


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The last time NYC reached freezing was back on March 18th. The number of lows at or below 32 is actually tracking closer to much warmer Marches such as 2016. 

March freezing days since 2010

Ranked lowest to highest

 

1 2010 2 0
2 2012 4 0
3 2016 7 0
4 2019 9 5
5 2011 11 0
6 2018 13 0
7 2017 14 0
- 2013 14 0
9 2015 16 0
10 2014 19 0

 

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2 hours ago, Sn0waddict said:

Inland looks fine but 50s and clouds for the coast definitely doesn’t seem very torchy to me. 

It's difficult for the coast to really torch in early April with a southerly flow. Really need a West wind, which isnt usually all that warm this time of year. 

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5 hours ago, psv88 said:

It's difficult for the coast to really torch in early April with a southerly flow. Really need a West wind, which isnt usually all that warm this time of year. 

Yeah, that’s why the NYC first 80 of spring is usually a few weeks ahead of ISP. Years like 2010 are the exception rather than the rule.

NYC first 80 of spring since 2010

Minimum 04-07 (2010) 09-14 (2012) 140
Mean 04-16 10-03 169
Maximum 05-10 (2014) 10-19 (2016) 183
2018 04-13 (2018) 82 10-10 (2018) 80 179
2017 04-11 (2017) 80 10-10 (2017) 81 181
2016 04-18 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 85 183
2015 04-18 (2015) 80 09-29 (2015) 83 163
2014 05-10 (2014) 83 09-28 (2014) 84 140
2013 04-09 (2013) 82 10-04 (2013) 86 177
2012 04-16 (2012) 88 09-14 (2012) 80 150
2011 04-11 (2011) 81 10-10 (2011) 81 181
2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 89 170

ISP

Minimum 04-07 (2010) 09-08 (2012) 137
Mean 04-30 09-30 152
Maximum 05-25 (2016) 10-19 (2016) 177
2018 05-02 (2018) 84 09-19 (2018) 80 139
2017 04-16 (2017) 82 10-10 (2017) 81 176
2016 05-25 (2016) 88 10-19 (2016) 84 146
2015 05-12 (2015) 82 09-29 (2015) 81 139
2014 05-11 (2014) 80 09-27 (2014) 82 138
2013 04-09 (2013) 82 10-04 (2013) 82 177
2012 04-16 (2012) 80 09-08 (2012) 80 144
2011 05-25 (2011) 81 10-10 (2011) 83 137
2010 04-07 (2010) 85 09-29 (2010) 80 174

 

 

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC is on track for the earliest last freeze date of the 2010’s. The last time NYC reached freezing was back on March 18th. The number of lows at or below 32 is actually tracking closer to much warmer Marches such as 2016. 

NYC last and first freeze dates since 2010

Minimum 03-23 (2017) 11-06 (2012) 215
Mean 04-01 11-21 234
Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-10 (2011) 255
2010 03-27 (2010) 29 12-04 (2010) 32 251
2011 03-29 (2011) 31 12-10 (2011) 32 255
2012 03-27 (2012) 30 11-06 (2012) 31 223
2013 03-23 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 31 233
2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215
2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236
2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242
2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231
2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218
2019 03-18(2019) 32 - - -

 

March freezing days since 2010

Ranked lowest to highest

 

1 2010 2 0
2 2012 4 0
3 2016 7 0
4 2019 9 5
5 2011 11 0
6 2018 13 0
7 2017 14 0
- 2013 14 0
9 2015 16 0
10 2014 19 0



 

Look at that chart, and with the recent years snow it's like March is turning into February. We can't catch a break.

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Look at that chart, and with the recent years snow it's like March is turning into February. We can't catch a break.

 

The cold and snow was really frontloaded this March.

NYC

3/1-3/7........-8.6......10.4”

3/8-3/26......+1.3........0

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The cold and snow was really frontloaded this March.

NYC

3/1-3/7........-8.6......10.4”

3/8-3/26......+1.3........0

March 15 was similar in a sense-3 storms the first 5-6 days then the pattern broke, it became warmer and I think that was the end of the snow.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

March 15 was similar in a sense-3 storms the first 5-6 days then the pattern broke, it became warmer and I think that was the end of the snow.

Last March was really the outlier even for snowy 2010’s climo. The historic snowfall for Islip  after March 20th was almost double the full seasonal total this year.

Islip 2018-2019 seasonal snowfall to date

2018-2019 12.8  

Islip snowfall after March 20th.

1 2018-04-30 23.0 0
2 1967-04-30 17.0 0
3 1982-04-30 16.0 0
4 1996-04-30 12.6 0
5 1974-04-30 8.0 0
6 1984-04-30 6.0 0
7 2014-04-30 4.8 0
8 1992-04-30 3.6 0
9 1990-04-30 3.0 0
10 1997-04-30 2.7 0
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April with wintry starts in NYC since 1950...

1950 had more cold with two inches of snow after the 10th...other years with one cold day or one light snowfall I left out...1982 has the greatest April wintry period...2003 the second greatest...Time will tell if April 2019 comes close to the snow and cold for these analog years...

1950.............................................

dates...max min precip snow depth

01........48....32......0.......0.......0

02........57....46....0.01....0.......0

03........63....48......T.......0.......0

04........76....46....0.02....0.......0

05........63....44....0.06....0.......0

06........48....31....0.13....0.......0

07........50....27.......0......0.......0

08........55....32.......0......0.......0

09........46....27....0.05....T.......0

10........57....29.......0......0.......0

1954.............................................

01........47....31....0.03...0.3......T

02........55....36.......0......0.......0

03........49....24.......0......0.......0

04........43....23.......0......0.......0

05........43....33.......T......T.......0

06........64....43....0.01....0.......0

07........74....53.......T......0.......0

08........77....43....0.17....0.......0

09........56....35.......0......0.......0

10........53....39.......0......0.......0

1956....................................................

01........52....33.......0......0.......0

02........48....37.......0......0.......0

03........50....40.......T......0.......0

04........51....43....0.01....0.......0

05........66....46.......0......0.......0

06........65....46....0.13....0.......0

07........46....37....0.75....0.......0

08........37....33....0.72...4.2.....3

09........52....34.......0......0.......1

10........57....36.......0......0.......0

1957........................................................

01........59....39....0.02....0.......0

02........62....41....0.78....0.......0

03........50....36.......0......0.......0

04........42....33....0.85...2.5.....2

05........58....34....0.77....0.......0

06........58....44....0.25....0.......0

07........61....43.......0......0.......0

08........50....37....0.31....0.......0

09........45....34....0.15....T.......0

10........51....35.......0......0.......0

1972.....................................................

01........58....41.......0......0.......0

02........54....39....0.13....T.......0

03........48....36.......0......0.......0

04........42....38....0.31....0.......0

05........54....32.......0......0.......0

06........62....42.......0......0.......0

07........42....28....0.03....T.......T

08........43....26.......T......T.......0

09........51....29.......0......0.......0

10........54....37.......0......0.......0

1975.......................................................

01........67....40.......0......0.......0

02........54....37.......0......0.......0

03........55....33....1.02....0.......0

04........37....27.......0......0.......0

05........41....27.......0......0.......0

06........41....30.......0......0.......0

07........47....29.......0......0.......0

08........47....31.......T......T.......0

09........52....33.......0......0.......0

10........58....32.......0......0.......0

1982................................................

01........65....46.......0......0.......0

02........58....36.......0......0.......0

03........56....43....1.86....0.......0

04........52....32.......T......T.......0

05........48....27.......0......0.......0

06........41....21....1.11...9.6.....3

07........30....21.......0......0.......9

08........43....25.......0......0.......6

09........39....34.......T......T.......3

10........53....34.......0......0.......2

1995.......................................................

01........55....37.......0......0.......0

02........49....35.......0......0.......0

03........56....34.......0......0.......0

04........68....28....0.04....0.......0

05........39....23.......0......0.......0

06........49....28.......0......0.......0

07........61....43.......0......0.......0

08........44....39....0.14....T.......0

09........68....41....0.56....0.......0

10........56....34.......T......0.......0

2003........................................................

01........43....30....0.11....T.......0

02........57....39.......T......0.......0

03........54....40.......0......0.......0

04........44....35.......0......0.......0

05........43....35.......0......0.......0

06........47....33.......0......0.......0

07........38....30....0.56...4.0.....1

08........37....31.......0......0.......3

09........39....35....0.30....0.......1

10........52....36.......0......0.......0

2007................................................

01........50....42....0.06....0.......0

02........56....42....0.06....0.......0

03........63....42.......0......0.......0

04........42....40....0.85....0.......0

05........44....34.......T......T.......0

06........42....31.......T......T.......0

07........43....31.......0......0.......0

08........41....30.......0......0.......0

09........49....32.......0......0.......0

10........51....33.......0......0.......0

2012..................................................

01........41....37....0.13.....0.......0

02........42....33....0.16.....0,,,,,,,0

03........56....42....0.12.....0.......0

04........45....36........0......0.......0

05........44....28........0......0.......0

06........44....25........0......0.......0

07........62....37........0......0.......0

08........71....53........0......0.......0

09........64....37....0.02.....0.......0

10........43....29........0......0.......0

2016................................................

01........79....61....0.02.....0.......0

02........61....49....0.16.....0.......0

03........50....34....0.09.....T.......0

04........45....29....0.47.....T.......0

05........43....26........0......0.......0

06........48....30........0......0.......0

07........58....48....0.09.....0.......0

08........50....40....0.01.....0.......0

09........43....36....0.11.....T.......0

10........50....31........0......0.......0

.........................................................

2018....

01...….60....43...….0......0...….0

02...….43....33....0.59...5.5......3

03...….43....39....0.26.....0...….0

04...….56....40....0.04.....0...….0

05...….45....34...….0......0...….0

06...….62....37....0.11.....0...….0

07...….49....37...….0......0...….0

08...….46....32...….0......0...….0

09...….49....32...,...T......0...….0

10...….51....38....0.01....0...…..0

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8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that’s why the NYC first 80 of spring is usually a few weeks ahead of ISP. Years like 2010 are the exception rather than the rule.

NYC first 80 of spring since 2010

Minimum 04-07 (2010) 09-14 (2012) 140
Mean 04-16 10-03 169
Maximum 05-10 (2014) 10-19 (2016) 183
2018 04-13 (2018) 82 10-10 (2018) 80 179
2017 04-11 (2017) 80 10-10 (2017) 81 181
2016 04-18 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 85 183
2015 04-18 (2015) 80 09-29 (2015) 83 163
2014 05-10 (2014) 83 09-28 (2014) 84 140
2013 04-09 (2013) 82 10-04 (2013) 86 177
2012 04-16 (2012) 88 09-14 (2012) 80 150
2011 04-11 (2011) 81 10-10 (2011) 81 181
2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 89 170

ISP

Minimum 04-07 (2010) 09-08 (2012) 137
Mean 04-30 09-30 152
Maximum 05-25 (2016) 10-19 (2016) 177
2018 05-02 (2018) 84 09-19 (2018) 80 139
2017 04-16 (2017) 82 10-10 (2017) 81 176
2016 05-25 (2016) 88 10-19 (2016) 84 146
2015 05-12 (2015) 82 09-29 (2015) 81 139
2014 05-11 (2014) 80 09-27 (2014) 82 138
2013 04-09 (2013) 82 10-04 (2013) 82 177
2012 04-16 (2012) 80 09-08 (2012) 80 144
2011 05-25 (2011) 81 10-10 (2011) 83 137
2010 04-07 (2010) 85 09-29 (2010) 80 174

 

 

That chart reminded me of an article I read somewhere a few yrs ago about avg onset of real warmth in the spring. It found one of the most reliable weather events is 80s in mid April. Things like first/last freeze have more variability, but 80 by mid April is pretty reliable.  Of course there is often more cool dreary weather to follow in these parts. 

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Warmer air is returning to the Northeast. Springlike warmth could prevail Friday and Saturday with readings reaching the high 60s across much of the area on Saturday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -12.83 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.568. The AO has now been positive for 48 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March. However, there is strong ensemble support for the AO to go negative in early April.

On March 26, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.293 (RMM). The amplitude was lower than the March 25-adjusted figure of 0.327.

Despite the forthcoming warmth, March remains on track to finish with a colder than normal temperature in the region (implied probability of 73% using sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance) and the guidance still suggests that April will be warmer than normal. The highest probability of a colder than normal April exists over the southern and central Plains States.

It is likely that the first 10 days of April could be wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1981, April cases with an ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.50°C or above have had a higher frequency of large precipitation (1.00" or more) events. At New York City, the frequency of such events was approximately 160% of climatology. At Boston, it was nearly 120% of climatology.

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Last 4 days of March are averaging 52.3degs., or 6degs. AN.

Month to date is -1.8[40.1].      March should end at -0.9[41.6].

All 8 days averaging 48degs., or 1deg. AN.

Forecasters lucky April 3 system is not a TS.    Model outputs are  all over the place.

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9 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Yeah but the cool has been pretty pleasant. Nice and clear, sunny and dry so it is great for being outside and doing stuff. A warm couple of days in a row would be a good thing though.

things have dried out here nicely.   Only about a half inch of rain the last 3 weeks and strong march sun coupled with low dewpoints have been doing the trick.

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2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Yeah but the cool has been pretty pleasant. Nice and clear, sunny and dry so it is great for being outside and doing stuff. A warm couple of days in a row would be a good thing though.

Areas near the South Shore are yet to see a 60 degree day this month. Islip reached 60 in Dec, Jan, And Feb. Hopefully, we can sneak a 60 in with the coming warm up into the weekend.

ISP monthly max temperatures since Dec

2018-2019 60 60 61 57
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A brief bout of April-like weather will send temperatures soaring to much above normal readings tomorrow and Saturday. Colder weather will then follow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -9.10 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.909. The AO has now been positive for 49 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. There is strong ensemble support for the AO to go negative in early April.

On March 27, the MJO has now drifted into Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.297 (RMM). The amplitude is little changed from the March 26-adjusted figure of 0.295.

Despite the forthcoming warmth, March remains on track to finish with a colder than normal temperature in the region (implied probability of 73% using sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance) and the guidance still suggests that April will be warmer than normal. The highest probability of a colder than normal April exists over the southern and central Plains States.

It remains likely that the first 10 days of April could be wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1981, April cases with an ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.50°C or above have had a higher frequency of large precipitation (1.00" or more) events. At New York City, the frequency of such events was approximately 160% of climatology. At Boston, it was nearly 120% of climatology.

Some EPS members continue to indicate the possibility of at least some snow, particularly in New England. With storminess and colder air not too far away in Canada, that scenario is a possibility.

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10 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Yeah but the cool has been pretty pleasant. Nice and clear, sunny and dry so it is great for being outside and doing stuff. A warm couple of days in a row would be a good thing though.

Yeah, when you have homes with yards that need seasonal maintenance, this weather is a godsend. I guess if I had the option to stay inside while the landlord cleans up, I'd also be upset about the lack of 80s in March.

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Just now, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, when you have homes with yards that need seasonal maintenance, this weather is a godsend. I guess if I had the option to stay inside while the landlord cleans up, I'd be upset about the lack of 80s in March.

I cut a path through the downed trees so I can get to the back of my yard now. I realized when I got there that there's a thousand pound piece of broken tree from the abandoned house behind me hung up in the crown of one of ours. I'm hoping for no wind for the next few months :yikes: It's one ugly a*s widowmaker that I hope doesn't come down on one of our dogs. I have sooo much yard work to do now that I'm healthy enough to get back at it but I have to work some too so the yard is going to be a huge mess for a while.

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