Sn0waddict Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 Inland looks fine but 50s and clouds for the coast definitely doesn’t seem very torchy to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 Low was 29.1 this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 The last time NYC reached freezing was back on March 18th. The number of lows at or below 32 is actually tracking closer to much warmer Marches such as 2016. March freezing days since 2010 Ranked lowest to highest 1 2010 2 0 2 2012 4 0 3 2016 7 0 4 2019 9 5 5 2011 11 0 6 2018 13 0 7 2017 14 0 - 2013 14 0 9 2015 16 0 10 2014 19 0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Sn0waddict said: Inland looks fine but 50s and clouds for the coast definitely doesn’t seem very torchy to me. It's difficult for the coast to really torch in early April with a southerly flow. Really need a West wind, which isnt usually all that warm this time of year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 5 hours ago, psv88 said: It's difficult for the coast to really torch in early April with a southerly flow. Really need a West wind, which isnt usually all that warm this time of year. Yeah, that’s why the NYC first 80 of spring is usually a few weeks ahead of ISP. Years like 2010 are the exception rather than the rule. NYC first 80 of spring since 2010 Minimum 04-07 (2010) 09-14 (2012) 140 Mean 04-16 10-03 169 Maximum 05-10 (2014) 10-19 (2016) 183 2018 04-13 (2018) 82 10-10 (2018) 80 179 2017 04-11 (2017) 80 10-10 (2017) 81 181 2016 04-18 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 85 183 2015 04-18 (2015) 80 09-29 (2015) 83 163 2014 05-10 (2014) 83 09-28 (2014) 84 140 2013 04-09 (2013) 82 10-04 (2013) 86 177 2012 04-16 (2012) 88 09-14 (2012) 80 150 2011 04-11 (2011) 81 10-10 (2011) 81 181 2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 89 170 ISP Minimum 04-07 (2010) 09-08 (2012) 137 Mean 04-30 09-30 152 Maximum 05-25 (2016) 10-19 (2016) 177 2018 05-02 (2018) 84 09-19 (2018) 80 139 2017 04-16 (2017) 82 10-10 (2017) 81 176 2016 05-25 (2016) 88 10-19 (2016) 84 146 2015 05-12 (2015) 82 09-29 (2015) 81 139 2014 05-11 (2014) 80 09-27 (2014) 82 138 2013 04-09 (2013) 82 10-04 (2013) 82 177 2012 04-16 (2012) 80 09-08 (2012) 80 144 2011 05-25 (2011) 81 10-10 (2011) 83 137 2010 04-07 (2010) 85 09-29 (2010) 80 174 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 23 last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 5 hours ago, bluewave said: NYC is on track for the earliest last freeze date of the 2010’s. The last time NYC reached freezing was back on March 18th. The number of lows at or below 32 is actually tracking closer to much warmer Marches such as 2016. NYC last and first freeze dates since 2010 Minimum 03-23 (2017) 11-06 (2012) 215 Mean 04-01 11-21 234 Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-10 (2011) 255 2010 03-27 (2010) 29 12-04 (2010) 32 251 2011 03-29 (2011) 31 12-10 (2011) 32 255 2012 03-27 (2012) 30 11-06 (2012) 31 223 2013 03-23 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 31 233 2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215 2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236 2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218 2019 03-18(2019) 32 - - - March freezing days since 2010 Ranked lowest to highest 1 2010 2 0 2 2012 4 0 3 2016 7 0 4 2019 9 5 5 2011 11 0 6 2018 13 0 7 2017 14 0 - 2013 14 0 9 2015 16 0 10 2014 19 0 Look at that chart, and with the recent years snow it's like March is turning into February. We can't catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 49/7... impressively dry, especially over a sustained period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Look at that chart, and with the recent years snow it's like March is turning into February. We can't catch a break. The cold and snow was really frontloaded this March. NYC 3/1-3/7........-8.6......10.4” 3/8-3/26......+1.3........0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: The cold and snow was really frontloaded this March. NYC 3/1-3/7........-8.6......10.4” 3/8-3/26......+1.3........0 March 15 was similar in a sense-3 storms the first 5-6 days then the pattern broke, it became warmer and I think that was the end of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: March 15 was similar in a sense-3 storms the first 5-6 days then the pattern broke, it became warmer and I think that was the end of the snow. Last March was really the outlier even for snowy 2010’s climo. The historic snowfall for Islip after March 20th was almost double the full seasonal total this year. Islip 2018-2019 seasonal snowfall to date 2018-2019 12.8 Islip snowfall after March 20th. 1 2018-04-30 23.0 0 2 1967-04-30 17.0 0 3 1982-04-30 16.0 0 4 1996-04-30 12.6 0 5 1974-04-30 8.0 0 6 1984-04-30 6.0 0 7 2014-04-30 4.8 0 8 1992-04-30 3.6 0 9 1990-04-30 3.0 0 10 1997-04-30 2.7 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 April with wintry starts in NYC since 1950... 1950 had more cold with two inches of snow after the 10th...other years with one cold day or one light snowfall I left out...1982 has the greatest April wintry period...2003 the second greatest...Time will tell if April 2019 comes close to the snow and cold for these analog years... 1950............................................. dates...max min precip snow depth 01........48....32......0.......0.......0 02........57....46....0.01....0.......0 03........63....48......T.......0.......0 04........76....46....0.02....0.......0 05........63....44....0.06....0.......0 06........48....31....0.13....0.......0 07........50....27.......0......0.......0 08........55....32.......0......0.......0 09........46....27....0.05....T.......0 10........57....29.......0......0.......0 1954............................................. 01........47....31....0.03...0.3......T 02........55....36.......0......0.......0 03........49....24.......0......0.......0 04........43....23.......0......0.......0 05........43....33.......T......T.......0 06........64....43....0.01....0.......0 07........74....53.......T......0.......0 08........77....43....0.17....0.......0 09........56....35.......0......0.......0 10........53....39.......0......0.......0 1956.................................................... 01........52....33.......0......0.......0 02........48....37.......0......0.......0 03........50....40.......T......0.......0 04........51....43....0.01....0.......0 05........66....46.......0......0.......0 06........65....46....0.13....0.......0 07........46....37....0.75....0.......0 08........37....33....0.72...4.2.....3 09........52....34.......0......0.......1 10........57....36.......0......0.......0 1957........................................................ 01........59....39....0.02....0.......0 02........62....41....0.78....0.......0 03........50....36.......0......0.......0 04........42....33....0.85...2.5.....2 05........58....34....0.77....0.......0 06........58....44....0.25....0.......0 07........61....43.......0......0.......0 08........50....37....0.31....0.......0 09........45....34....0.15....T.......0 10........51....35.......0......0.......0 1972..................................................... 01........58....41.......0......0.......0 02........54....39....0.13....T.......0 03........48....36.......0......0.......0 04........42....38....0.31....0.......0 05........54....32.......0......0.......0 06........62....42.......0......0.......0 07........42....28....0.03....T.......T 08........43....26.......T......T.......0 09........51....29.......0......0.......0 10........54....37.......0......0.......0 1975....................................................... 01........67....40.......0......0.......0 02........54....37.......0......0.......0 03........55....33....1.02....0.......0 04........37....27.......0......0.......0 05........41....27.......0......0.......0 06........41....30.......0......0.......0 07........47....29.......0......0.......0 08........47....31.......T......T.......0 09........52....33.......0......0.......0 10........58....32.......0......0.......0 1982................................................ 01........65....46.......0......0.......0 02........58....36.......0......0.......0 03........56....43....1.86....0.......0 04........52....32.......T......T.......0 05........48....27.......0......0.......0 06........41....21....1.11...9.6.....3 07........30....21.......0......0.......9 08........43....25.......0......0.......6 09........39....34.......T......T.......3 10........53....34.......0......0.......2 1995....................................................... 01........55....37.......0......0.......0 02........49....35.......0......0.......0 03........56....34.......0......0.......0 04........68....28....0.04....0.......0 05........39....23.......0......0.......0 06........49....28.......0......0.......0 07........61....43.......0......0.......0 08........44....39....0.14....T.......0 09........68....41....0.56....0.......0 10........56....34.......T......0.......0 2003........................................................ 01........43....30....0.11....T.......0 02........57....39.......T......0.......0 03........54....40.......0......0.......0 04........44....35.......0......0.......0 05........43....35.......0......0.......0 06........47....33.......0......0.......0 07........38....30....0.56...4.0.....1 08........37....31.......0......0.......3 09........39....35....0.30....0.......1 10........52....36.......0......0.......0 2007................................................ 01........50....42....0.06....0.......0 02........56....42....0.06....0.......0 03........63....42.......0......0.......0 04........42....40....0.85....0.......0 05........44....34.......T......T.......0 06........42....31.......T......T.......0 07........43....31.......0......0.......0 08........41....30.......0......0.......0 09........49....32.......0......0.......0 10........51....33.......0......0.......0 2012.................................................. 01........41....37....0.13.....0.......0 02........42....33....0.16.....0,,,,,,,0 03........56....42....0.12.....0.......0 04........45....36........0......0.......0 05........44....28........0......0.......0 06........44....25........0......0.......0 07........62....37........0......0.......0 08........71....53........0......0.......0 09........64....37....0.02.....0.......0 10........43....29........0......0.......0 2016................................................ 01........79....61....0.02.....0.......0 02........61....49....0.16.....0.......0 03........50....34....0.09.....T.......0 04........45....29....0.47.....T.......0 05........43....26........0......0.......0 06........48....30........0......0.......0 07........58....48....0.09.....0.......0 08........50....40....0.01.....0.......0 09........43....36....0.11.....T.......0 10........50....31........0......0.......0 ......................................................... 2018.... 01...….60....43...….0......0...….0 02...….43....33....0.59...5.5......3 03...….43....39....0.26.....0...….0 04...….56....40....0.04.....0...….0 05...….45....34...….0......0...….0 06...….62....37....0.11.....0...….0 07...….49....37...….0......0...….0 08...….46....32...….0......0...….0 09...….49....32...,...T......0...….0 10...….51....38....0.01....0...…..0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 8 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that’s why the NYC first 80 of spring is usually a few weeks ahead of ISP. Years like 2010 are the exception rather than the rule. NYC first 80 of spring since 2010 Minimum 04-07 (2010) 09-14 (2012) 140 Mean 04-16 10-03 169 Maximum 05-10 (2014) 10-19 (2016) 183 2018 04-13 (2018) 82 10-10 (2018) 80 179 2017 04-11 (2017) 80 10-10 (2017) 81 181 2016 04-18 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 85 183 2015 04-18 (2015) 80 09-29 (2015) 83 163 2014 05-10 (2014) 83 09-28 (2014) 84 140 2013 04-09 (2013) 82 10-04 (2013) 86 177 2012 04-16 (2012) 88 09-14 (2012) 80 150 2011 04-11 (2011) 81 10-10 (2011) 81 181 2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 89 170 ISP Minimum 04-07 (2010) 09-08 (2012) 137 Mean 04-30 09-30 152 Maximum 05-25 (2016) 10-19 (2016) 177 2018 05-02 (2018) 84 09-19 (2018) 80 139 2017 04-16 (2017) 82 10-10 (2017) 81 176 2016 05-25 (2016) 88 10-19 (2016) 84 146 2015 05-12 (2015) 82 09-29 (2015) 81 139 2014 05-11 (2014) 80 09-27 (2014) 82 138 2013 04-09 (2013) 82 10-04 (2013) 82 177 2012 04-16 (2012) 80 09-08 (2012) 80 144 2011 05-25 (2011) 81 10-10 (2011) 83 137 2010 04-07 (2010) 85 09-29 (2010) 80 174 That chart reminded me of an article I read somewhere a few yrs ago about avg onset of real warmth in the spring. It found one of the most reliable weather events is 80s in mid April. Things like first/last freeze have more variability, but 80 by mid April is pretty reliable. Of course there is often more cool dreary weather to follow in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 Remember 1998? Last 5 days of March all exceeded 80° here, with a max of 87° on the 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 Warmer air is returning to the Northeast. Springlike warmth could prevail Friday and Saturday with readings reaching the high 60s across much of the area on Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into April in Region 3.4. The SOI was -12.83 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.568. The AO has now been positive for 48 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March. However, there is strong ensemble support for the AO to go negative in early April. On March 26, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.293 (RMM). The amplitude was lower than the March 25-adjusted figure of 0.327. Despite the forthcoming warmth, March remains on track to finish with a colder than normal temperature in the region (implied probability of 73% using sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance) and the guidance still suggests that April will be warmer than normal. The highest probability of a colder than normal April exists over the southern and central Plains States. It is likely that the first 10 days of April could be wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1981, April cases with an ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.50°C or above have had a higher frequency of large precipitation (1.00" or more) events. At New York City, the frequency of such events was approximately 160% of climatology. At Boston, it was nearly 120% of climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 Last 4 days of March are averaging 52.3degs., or 6degs. AN. Month to date is -1.8[40.1]. March should end at -0.9[41.6]. All 8 days averaging 48degs., or 1deg. AN. Forecasters lucky April 3 system is not a TS. Model outputs are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 Another frosty morning with 27° currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 25.1 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 No let up in sight for this back and forth weather pattern. Warm up into this weekend followed by the next cool down. We have had more extended winter warmth recently than spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 Yeah but the cool has been pretty pleasant. Nice and clear, sunny and dry so it is great for being outside and doing stuff. A warm couple of days in a row would be a good thing though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Yeah but the cool has been pretty pleasant. Nice and clear, sunny and dry so it is great for being outside and doing stuff. A warm couple of days in a row would be a good thing though. things have dried out here nicely. Only about a half inch of rain the last 3 weeks and strong march sun coupled with low dewpoints have been doing the trick. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 2 hours ago, gravitylover said: Yeah but the cool has been pretty pleasant. Nice and clear, sunny and dry so it is great for being outside and doing stuff. A warm couple of days in a row would be a good thing though. Areas near the South Shore are yet to see a 60 degree day this month. Islip reached 60 in Dec, Jan, And Feb. Hopefully, we can sneak a 60 in with the coming warm up into the weekend. ISP monthly max temperatures since Dec 2018-2019 60 60 61 57 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 That's the penalty you pay for living on LI. Sorry Well, that and a few others 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: That's the penalty you pay for living on LI. Sorry Well, that and a few others Lol the delayed spring torches are just one thing on a laundry list of reasons why I’ve grown to dislike LI. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 10 hours ago, doncat said: Another frosty morning with 27° currently. it's amazing you can be ten degrees colder than Central Park because of their heat island effect...I was 28 this morning near the water... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 26 minutes ago, Cfa said: Lol the delayed spring torches are just one thing on a laundry list of reasons why I’ve grown to dislike LI. Similar effect along the Jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 A brief bout of April-like weather will send temperatures soaring to much above normal readings tomorrow and Saturday. Colder weather will then follow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into April in Region 3.4. The SOI was -9.10 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.909. The AO has now been positive for 49 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. There is strong ensemble support for the AO to go negative in early April. On March 27, the MJO has now drifted into Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.297 (RMM). The amplitude is little changed from the March 26-adjusted figure of 0.295. Despite the forthcoming warmth, March remains on track to finish with a colder than normal temperature in the region (implied probability of 73% using sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance) and the guidance still suggests that April will be warmer than normal. The highest probability of a colder than normal April exists over the southern and central Plains States. It remains likely that the first 10 days of April could be wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1981, April cases with an ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.50°C or above have had a higher frequency of large precipitation (1.00" or more) events. At New York City, the frequency of such events was approximately 160% of climatology. At Boston, it was nearly 120% of climatology. Some EPS members continue to indicate the possibility of at least some snow, particularly in New England. With storminess and colder air not too far away in Canada, that scenario is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 28, 2019 Share Posted March 28, 2019 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The whole the area may share in the onshore flow cooling if the Euro is correct about next week. Models haven’t been very consistent with the coastal storm track. I'm going to head north and west to get away from the ocean influence. I'm chasing springtime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 10 hours ago, gravitylover said: Yeah but the cool has been pretty pleasant. Nice and clear, sunny and dry so it is great for being outside and doing stuff. A warm couple of days in a row would be a good thing though. Yeah, when you have homes with yards that need seasonal maintenance, this weather is a godsend. I guess if I had the option to stay inside while the landlord cleans up, I'd also be upset about the lack of 80s in March. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 Just now, Juliancolton said: Yeah, when you have homes with yards that need seasonal maintenance, this weather is a godsend. I guess if I had the option to stay inside while the landlord cleans up, I'd be upset about the lack of 80s in March. I cut a path through the downed trees so I can get to the back of my yard now. I realized when I got there that there's a thousand pound piece of broken tree from the abandoned house behind me hung up in the crown of one of ours. I'm hoping for no wind for the next few months It's one ugly a*s widowmaker that I hope doesn't come down on one of our dogs. I have sooo much yard work to do now that I'm healthy enough to get back at it but I have to work some too so the yard is going to be a huge mess for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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