March, 2019

[bluewave]

Same old story for March continues. Brief warm up on Sunday with our next possible 60+degree reading. Sharp cold front later Monday and big temperature drop into the 20’s for early Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

[winterwx21]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Same old story for March continues. Brief warm up on Sunday with our next possible 60+degree reading. Sharp cold front later Monday and big temperature drop into the 20’s for early Tuesday and Wednesday.

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   3/22/2019  0000 UTC
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
FRI  22| SAT 23| SUN 24| MON 25| TUE 26| WED 27| THU 28| FRI 29 CLIMO
X/N  51| 36  51| 37  60| 43  52| 26  38| 27  47| 34  54| 42  60 36 54

The good news is it looks as if we'll have an extended warm stretch after the tuesday-wednesday cooldown. A good amount of days with high temps in the 60s and possibly 70. Last year it was a real struggle in late March and early April with cold weather lingering for a long time. I'm glad its looking as if it won't be a repeat this year. It'll be nice to start the vegetable garden (cool weather crops like lettuce and broccoli) late next week in warm weather. Perfect timing.

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The good news is it looks as if we'll have an extended warm stretch after the tuesday-wednesday cooldown. A good amount of days with high temps in the 60s and possibly 70. Last year it was a real struggle in late March and early April with cold weather lingering for a long time. I'm glad its looking as if it won't be a repeat this year. It'll be nice to start the vegetable garden (cool weather crops like lettuce and broccoli) late next week in warm weather. Perfect timing.

It does look like our next warm up after the Tue-Wed cool down will arrive by the Mar 29-31 period. Beyond that, it still looks like an  active fire hose PAC Jet pattern into at least the first week of April. Could be a duel between the developing WAR and lingering -EPO block near the start of April. 

[donsutherland1]

The storm responsible for the rain last night and this morning is moving away. However, as it intensifies and slows in the Gulf of Maine, strong winds will develop. Tomorrow winds could gust as high as 50 mph in parts of the New York City region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.70°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March.

The SOI was -5.60 today. It has been negative for 21 consecutive days and 44 out of the last 45 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.922. The AO has now been positive for 43 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March.

On March 21, the MJO moved into Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.315 (RMM). The amplitude was higher than the March 20-adjusted figure of 0.166.

However, another system could bring the risk of precipitation to the region during the March 26-28 period. However, the prospect for measurable snowfall in Boston, New York City, or Philadelphia has diminished.

　

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 45degs., or just Normal.

Month to date is -1.9[39.1].    Should be -1.4[40.7] by the 31st.

[CIK62]

FERRY SUSPENSION  Due to the Wind Gusts:

Notification issued 03-23-2019 at 7:47 AM. Due to high winds, NYC Ferry service to the Bay Ridge Landing is suspended until further notice. Consider alternate routes and allow for additional travel time. For more information, please visit NYC Ferry: www.ferry.nyc/service-alerts

[ForestHillWx]

Had snow last night. Woke up to snow in the yard and on the cars. 

[NycStormChaser]

This mornings blowout tide. Levels were 3 to 4 feet below normal low tide.

[sferic]

1 hour ago, NycStormChaser said:

This mornings blowout tide. Levels were 3 to 4 feet below normal low tide.

Stunning photography, what kind of camera was used?

[NycStormChaser]

2 minutes ago, sferic said:

Stunning photography, what kind of camera was used?

Thanks this was with the Nikon D750

[doncat]

With 4.51" of precip this month so far, this will be the 13th month above normal out of the last 14. Next ten days though look pretty dry for a change.

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, doncat said:

With 4.51" of precip this month so far, this will be the 13th month above normal out of the last 14. Next ten days though look pretty dry for a change.

March is the 14th month in a row with at least 3.00” of precipitation in NYC. The last 14 month streak for NYC was Dec 10 to Jan 12.

Feb 18 to Mar 19

Dec 10 to Jan 12

[weathermedic]

Very dry outside with the nw flow. Humidity 26% Temp 49 with dew of 16.

[donsutherland1]

Even as the models continue to slowly arrive at the conclusion that the season has changed, the increasing spring foliage has weighed in a lot more decisively. Below are a few scenes from the New York Botanical Garden:

[donsutherland1]

After a windy and relatively chilly day, a much more springlike day lies ahead for tomorrow. Readings will likely rise into the 60s in much of the Middle Atlantic region and well into the 50s in southern New England.

The storm responsible for today's strong winds added to the high seasonal snowfall totals in Buffalo and Burlington. Buffalo has now received 116.1" snow (12th highest figure on record) and Burlington has picked up 101.6" snow (10th highest figure on record). Meanwhile, Atlanta has yet to receive any snowfall. After March 23, Atlanta had just 19 cases where it received snowfall, only one of which was measurable. That historical data suggests that it is very unlikely that Atlanta will see measurable snowfall this winter and the odds of its not seeing any snowfall for the first time on record are increasing.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.70°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March.

The SOI was +4.02 today. That was the first positive figure in 22 days. The SOI has been negative for 44 out of the last 46 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.005. The AO has now been positive for 44 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March.

On March 22, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.584 (RMM). The amplitude was higher than the March 21-adjusted figure of 0.311.

Even as the prospect of measurable snowfall has largely disappeared, Central Park could see a low temperature of 32° or below next week. That could be New York City's last freeze of winter 2018-19. The 12z operational ECMWF has a snowfall during the April 1-2 period. However, its performance in forecasting snowfalls at that range this winter and early spring has been dismal. There remains little ensemble support for that idea.

Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the current guidance, the implied probability of New York City's having a colder than normal March has risen to 79% (58% for 1° or more below normal). In contrast, April continues to look to be warmer than normal.

[Juliancolton]

FWIW, conditions look about as unfavorable as they can for mid-latitude aurora sightings. You could be in Yellowknife and decide to stay in for the night with these parameters. Save yourself the sleep and gas money.

[CIK62]

GFS  T's for 1st. Week of April look high, compared to CMC and FV3.     The RRWT is still BN broadly on the, Next 30 Days---most of April.    CFSv2 is way AN for April.     November for one, was to be a furnace, and was for 8 days.       There is little statistical support for any of these models, or any others.     For my part, the models should shut up--- unless they see a real BN chance.    There are more AN months if scored with the 1981-2010 period, which is out of date.   Global Warming is a moving target till further notice.   We can not change the T's, just the datum they are measured against.

[LibertyBell]

On 3/17/2019 at 10:15 AM, bluewave said:

I am not sure that the current SST pattern would support a WAR/STR as extreme as last summer. Notice the big cold pool east of the Canadian Maritimes this March. There were record warm SST’s off New England last March. 2018 also featured the February precursor pattern with the first 80 and record breaking 500 mb height. So far we have seen nothing as extreme this year. The historic 43 days at JFK with a 75 degree or higher dew point is a tough act to follow.

 

 

hot and dry would be perfect.  Something like 1966 which was Uncle's favorite summer, or 2010 which was mine.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

GFS  T's for 1st. Week of April look high, compared to CMC and FV3.     The RRWT is still BN broadly on the, Next 30 Days---most of April.    CFSv2 is way AN for April.     November for one, was to be a furnace, and was for 8 days.       There is little statistical support for any of these models, or any others.     For my part, the models should shut up--- unless they see a real BN chance.    There are more AN months if scored with the 1981-2010 period, which is out of date.   Global Warming is a moving target till further notice.   We can not change the T's, just the datum they are measured against.

This might be why the climate prediction center is going for way above normal temperatures for NYC and Boston for April/May/June

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 49degs., or 4degs. AN.

Month to date is -2.0[39.2].     March should end near -0.6[41.7].

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

hot and dry would be perfect.  Something like 1966 which was Uncle's favorite summer, or 2010 which was mine.

Hot and dry like 2010 hasn’t been on the menu since the Pacific and Atlantic SST configuration shift around late 2013. We have seen much higher summer humidity since then. 

The big SST shift 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hot and dry like 2010 hasn’t been on the menu since the Pacific and Atlantic SST configuration shift around late 2013. We have seen much higher summer humidity since then. 

Hot and dry usually produces more extreme temperatures than summers that feature high humidity.  I miss the 80s when it was pretty common for JJA to feature around 2 inches of rain per month.  Even 1983, our wettest year on record, had a relatively dry summer, which is what made it so amazingly hot (and yet it was also very humid.)  A nice cooling rainfall after a week or two of hot and dry is refreshing, but having high humidity and rain every other day produces sickening conditions (high pollen counts in the Spring and more tropical diseases in the Summer, and more bugs that carry those diseases.)

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hot and dry like 2010 hasn’t been on the menu since the Pacific and Atlantic SST configuration shift around late 2013. We have seen much higher summer humidity since then. 

The big SST shift 

 

Thanks for the map!  Has the increase in precip from the 80s and 90s to now been much more noticeable in the summer rather than the winter?

 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks for the map!  Has the increase in precip from the 80s and 90s to now been much more noticeable in the summer rather than the winter?

 

We need a big ridge over the Plains and Midwest to get the kind of dry heat like we saw from 2010 to 2013. Since then, it has been more of a West Coast/East Coast ridge with higher humidity for us. 

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We need a big ridge over the Plains and Midwest to get the kind of dry heat like we saw from 2010 to 2013. Since then, it has been more of a West Coast/East Coast ridge with higher humidity for us. 

 

Those kinds of ridges over the Plains and Midwest are usually associated with droughts in that region if I'm not mistaken.  We saw that in many of our dry and hot summers.  1993 was an interesting exception which gets mentioned now that we've seen historic flooding in that region, but the highest rainfall back in 1993 was actually further south than what we've seen this year.  The summer of 1993 established the ring of fire that caused training thunderstorms and record high flood stages in Missouri, especially St. Louis.

 

[gravitylover]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hot and dry usually produces more extreme temperatures than summers that feature high humidity.  I miss the 80s when it was pretty common for JJA to feature around 2 inches of rain per month.  Even 1983, our wettest year on record, had a relatively dry summer, which is what made it so amazingly hot (and yet it was also very humid.)  A nice cooling rainfall after a week or two of hot and dry is refreshing, but having high humidity and rain every other day produces sickening conditions (high pollen counts in the Spring and more tropical diseases in the Summer, and more bugs that carry those diseases.)

 

Strangely enough even with all of the rain and persistent humidity the bugs last year were less numerous than many similar years although some insects were significantly more of a problem. We had spider crickets that we've only had a few of before and the black flies were terrible in some spots. I know that hemispherically the flying insect count was way down and around here, at least most of the places I was, the mosquito population was a fraction of the year before.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Those kinds of ridges over the Plains and Midwest are usually associated with droughts in that region if I'm not mistaken.  We saw that in many of our dry and hot summers.  1993 was an interesting exception which gets mentioned now that we've seen historic flooding in that region, but the highest rainfall back in 1993 was actually further south than what we've seen this year.  The summer of 1993 established the ring of fire that caused training thunderstorms and record high flood stages in Missouri, especially St. Louis.

 

True. The extreme drought over the Plains In 2011 allowed Newark to set the 108 record high.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Strangely enough even with all of the rain and persistent humidity the bugs last year were less numerous than many similar years although some insects were significantly more of a problem. We had spider crickets that we've only had a few of before and the black flies were terrible in some spots. I know that hemispherically the flying insect count was way down and around here, at least most of the places I was, the mosquito population was a fraction of the year before.

I just thought of something that may offer an explanation of why that may have happened.  We had a record breaking mild February and I was already starting to see mosquitoes and even ticks by then.  But then we had that very snowy and cold March and April.  That may have neutralized the "budding" bug population (although the pollen season was still really bad.)

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

True. The extreme drought over the Plains In 2011 allowed Newark to set the 108 record high.

Yes, pretty ironic since 2011, like 1983, was also one of our wettest years- but a lot of that rain happened post heat wave, beginning in August with Irene and that record setting rainstorm that dumped close to 10" of rain here.

 

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, pretty ironic since 2011, like 1983, was also one of our wettest years- but a lot of that rain happened post heat wave, beginning in August with Irene and that record setting rainstorm that dumped close to 10" of rain here.

 

This year so far is as far away as you can get to the historic Plains drought of 2011 to 2013. Epic fire hose Pacific Jet and historic flash flooding in the Plains. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/DroughtCenter/status/1108737919471230977

The latest #Drought Monitor shows only 4.78 percent of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate drought conditions (D1-D4) or worse. That marks the second-lowest percent of the area to experience drought since the beginning of 2000. Explore the data here: