March, 2019

[West Point, NY]

4 hours ago, TriPol said:

If the wet pattern continues into the summer, we're likely going to experience a repeat of last summer which included a record number of days with the dew point over 70 with highs in the 80s. If I wanted minimal snowfall in the winter with hot, humid summers, I would have moved to the South.

If you wanted reasonably humid summers and decent snowfall, one wouldn't ever have moved to NYC. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The day 10 Euro didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be spring.

 

It's showed -EPO 2 runs in a row.. it would be interesting to see if it develops. 

[donsutherland1]

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.50°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.69°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March.

The SOI was -9.10 today. It has been negative for 39 out of the last 40 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.454. The AO has now been positive for 38 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March.

On March 16, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.637 (RMM). The amplitude was lower than the March 15-adjusted figure of 0.706. The MJO could approach or reach Phase 2 in the next day or so.

Tonight into tomorrow morning, a fast-moving weak system could bring some light rain or snow across parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region. However, the precipitation looks to pass south of New York City.

By the middle of the week, temperatures could again be rising to levels above seasonal norms. There is some chance of another brief push of cooler air late in the week as a strong system passes offshore. Another system could bring the risk of precipitation to the region during the March 26-28 period.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days averaging 46degs., or 2degs. AN.

Month to date is -2.2[38.0].     Should be -0.8[40.6] by the 26th.

EURO has 7" of Snow on Mar. 27- 28.    GEFS has 10% chance of any snow.

 

Yes, the EURO wants to get one more error/bust in there while it can.     It blew temps. by 20 degs., closer-in during first week of March,  [-5 to +2] and now asks you to believe a 1 deg., "snow/rain"  margin of error on Day 10!

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days averaging 46degs., or 2degs. AN.

Month to date is -2.2[38.0].     Should be -0.8[40.6] by the 26th.

EURO has 7" of Snow on Mar. 28.    GEFS has 10% of any snow.

 

On numerous occasions this winter, the ECMWF has shown the snowiest solution that was at odds with the other guidance in the medium term and then wound up incorrect. The PNA+ and lack of support from its ensemble members suggests that this could be another such case. Seasonal climatology also argues for caution when it comes to the ECMWF’s snowy solution.

[nzucker]

On 3/16/2019 at 7:02 PM, uncle W said:

so far NYC has 65 days with a minimum temperature 32 or lower...last year had 69 with two in April...this week the predicted lows in the city are near freezing Sunday to Wed. mornings...if that happens this year will tie last year...the most in recent years is 93 in 2014-15...2015-16 and 2016-17 had less than 50 such days...37 is the lowest total on record set in 2011-12...before the 1950's there were many years with at least 100 days with a minimum 32 or lower...

NYC reached freezing last night. I think tonight is a lock, probably upper 20s.

[MJO812]

Maybe a chance of frozen precip next week ?

[nzucker]

12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Maybe a chance of frozen precip next week ?

I think there's a chance...models have been showing that EPO block and window just past the equinox for a while now. We often see the final snowfall of the season around the equinox.

[bluewave]

March 2010, 2012, and 2016 will go down as the only early starts to spring during the 2010’s with extreme warmth. All the other years were colder or closer to normal like 2011.

March 2010’s NYC departures

2019....-2.2....so far

2018....-2.4

2017....-3.3

2016...+6.4

2015....-4.4

2014....-4.8

2013....-2.4

2012....+8.4

2011....-0.2

2010....+5.7

 

 

[nzucker]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

March 2010, 2012, and 2016 will go down as the only early starts to spring during the 2010’s with extreme warmth. All the other years were colder or closer to normal like 2011.

March 2010’s NYC departures

2019....-2.2....so far

2018....-2.4

2017....-3.3

2016...+6.4

2015....-4.4

2014....-4.8

2013....-2.4

2012....+8.4

2011....-0.2

2010....+5.7

 

 

March has been a cold month and one of our snowiest in recent years. Four Nor'easters in 2018 plus the April storm; the Mar 2017 storm just missed clobbering the City but was like 10" here and 20-30" in outlying areas. Really enjoying the extended winter, very refreshing and crisp this morning. What do you think of the Day 10 threat, any legs? The SOI dip and Phase 3 MJO does seem to have the cold anchored back in the east with some very low heights to our north in Canada. 

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, nzucker said:

March has been a cold month and one of our snowiest in recent years. Four Nor'easters in 2018 plus the April storm; the Mar 2017 storm just missed clobbering the City but was like 10" here and 20-30" in outlying areas. Really enjoying the extended winter, very refreshing and crisp this morning. What do you think of the Day 10 threat, any legs? The SOI dip and Phase 3 MJO does seem to have the cold anchored back in the east with some very low heights to our north in Canada. 

There are some hints that our late fall and early spring patterns have become linked. Cooler Marches have generally followed cooler Novembers. Even the snowy and colder pattern this past November was followed up by similar conditions this March to date. The 3 warmest Marches since 2010 have perfectly matched the 3 warmest Novembers.

NYC monthly departures

Nov...2015....+5.1...Mar...2016...+6.4

Nov...2011....+4.2...Mar...2012....+8.4

Nov...2009....+3.4...Mar...2010....+5.7

[nzucker]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are some hints that our late fall and early spring patterns have become linked. Cooler Marches have generally followed cooler Novembers. Even the snowy and colder pattern this past November was followed up by similar conditions this March to date. The 3 warmest Marches since 2010 have perfectly matched the 3 warmest Novembers.

NYC monthly departures

Nov...2015....+5.1...Mar...2016...+6.4

Nov...2011....+4.2...Mar...2012....+8.4

Nov...2009....+3.4...Mar...2010....+5.7

Two of these were strong +ENSO (although 1997 actually had a cool fall in an east-based Super Niño)...

[MJO812]

Models look interesting with the day 9 storm especially for the interior.

[David-LI]

Euro with a 978 low right near the BM Friday morning. Not sure how it reflects on the surface. Anyone with more details?

[purduewx80]

22 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Euro with a 978 low right near the BM Friday morning. Not sure how it reflects on the surface. Anyone with more details?

It's closer to ACK than the Benchmark. Southerly flow ahead of it would, verbatim, not produce accumulating snow except from the higher elevations near ORH up into Maine. 

[Rtd208]

23 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Euro with a 978 low right near the BM Friday morning. Not sure how it reflects on the surface. Anyone with more details?

Development is probably a bit late for us at least snow wise but there should be at least some impacts. We are still roughly 3/3.5 days away so alot can still change. 

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

It's closer to ACK than the Benchmark. Southerly flow ahead of it would, verbatim, not produce accumulating snow except from the higher elevations near ORH up into Maine. 

Yeah I agree, not quite the BM. 

[Rtd208]

I wouldn't aim to high snow wise with this but a nice coastal with at least some kind of impacts would be nice. We need development a bit sooner/further south to start talking snow which is possible but not likely currently. 

[Rtd208]

 

 

[Brian5671]

54 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Euro with a 978 low right near the BM Friday morning. Not sure how it reflects on the surface. Anyone with more details?

not much cold air around here-temps are in the 40's until it passes and the cold air comes in-most of the precip is BDR/ISP on east.....

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, nzucker said:

Two of these were strong +ENSO (although 1997 actually had a cool fall in an east-based Super Niño)...

The November to March relationship has been pretty tight since 09-10.

NYC

Season...Nov....Mar

18-19.....-3.3.....-2.2...so far

17-18.....-1.1.....-2.4

16-17.....+2.1....-3.3

15-16.....+5.1....+6.4

14-15.....-2.4.....-4.4

13-14.....-2.4......-4.8

12-13.....-3.8......-2.4

11-12....+4.2.....+8.4

10-11.....+0.2.....-0.2

09-10....+3.4.....+5.7

[nzucker]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The November to March relationship has been pretty tight since 09-10.

NYC

Season...Nov....Mar

18-19.....-3.3.....-2.2...so far

17-18.....-1.1.....-2.4

16-17.....+2.1....-3.3

15-16.....+5.1....+6.4

14-15.....-2.4.....-4.4

13-14.....-2.4......-4.8

12-13.....-3.8......-2.4

11-12....+4.2.....+8.4

10-11.....+0.2.....-0.2

09-10....+3.4.....+5.7

March 2012, I reached 80F at 1200' in Rindge, NH. The next year in NYC, we had two major snowstorms in March. March 2014 was largely snowless but had several days in the 20s while March 2015 carried a 19" snowpack into the month. Amazing the variation one can see in March.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, nzucker said:

March 2012, I reached 80F at 1200' in Rindge, NH. The next year in NYC, we had two major snowstorms in March. March 2014 was largely snowless but had several days in the 20s while March 2015 carried a 19" snowpack into the month. Amazing the variation one can see in March.

March 1990 probably wins the variation award. 3.1” of snow in NYC  followed by a temperature rise from 13 to 85 over the following week. 

NYC

1990-03-06	33	22	27.5	-11.9	37	0	0.44	3.1	1
1990-03-07	35	13	24.0	-15.6	41	0	0.00	0.0	3
1990-03-08	46	25	35.5	-4.4	29	0	0.00	0.0	1
1990-03-09	48	33	40.5	0.3	24	0	T	0.0	T
1990-03-10	53	42	47.5	7.0	17	0	0.00	0.0	0
1990-03-11	67	45	56.0	15.3	9	0	0.05	0.0	0
1990-03-12	60	45	52.5	11.5	12	0	0.00	0.0	0
1990-03-13	85	43	64.0	22.7	1	0	0.00	0.0	0

[donsutherland1]

A very weak system passed well south of the region today. However, none of its precipitation reached the New York City region and nearby suburbs.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.70°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March.

The SOI was -8.86 today. It has been negative for 40 out of the last 41 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.900. The AO has now been positive for 39 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March.

On March 17, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.480 (RMM). The amplitude was lower than the March 16-adjusted figure of 0.635. The MJO could approach or reach Phase 2 in the next day or so.

By the midweek, the temperature could be warmer than normal. There is some chance of another brief push of cooler air late in the week as a strong system passes offshore, possibly grazing the region with some light precipitation on Thursday into Friday. Another system could bring the risk of precipitation to the region during the March 26-28 period.

Some of the guidance suggests the possibility of at least some frozen precipitation from that latter system. Such an outcome would be consistent with historical experience.

Since 1869, New York City has had 10 cases during the March 1-7 period when 6.0" or more snow fell and the average temperature was 32.0° or below. All 10 cases had additional measurable snowfall afterward.

Since 1950, 9/11 (82%) of New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms that occurred on or after March 20 occurred when the PNA was negative. The two that occurred with a positive PNA were the only two cases that featured an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly > 0°C. None of the 11 cases occurred with the PNA at +1.000 or above. Smaller snowfalls, some of which exceeded 3.0", did occur when the PNA was at or above +1.000.

[nycwinter]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

March 1990 probably wins the variation award. 3.1” of snow in NYC  followed by a temperature rise from 13 to 85 over the following week. 

NYC

1990-03-06	33	22	27.5	-11.9	37	0	0.44	3.1	1
1990-03-07	35	13	24.0	-15.6	41	0	0.00	0.0	3
1990-03-08	46	25	35.5	-4.4	29	0	0.00	0.0	1
1990-03-09	48	33	40.5	0.3	24	0	T	0.0	T
1990-03-10	53	42	47.5	7.0	17	0	0.00	0.0	0
1990-03-11	67	45	56.0	15.3	9	0	0.05	0.0	0
1990-03-12	60	45	52.5	11.5	12	0	0.00	0.0	0
1990-03-13	85	43	64.0	22.7	1	0	0.00	0.0	0

i remember those march days in the early 1990's very warm temps...

[CIK62]

The next 8 days averaging 46degs., or 2degs.AN.

Month to date is  -2.3[38.1].       Should be -1.0 [40.5] by the 27th.

EURO already down to 1" of Snow for the 27th-28th.   GEFS has little chance of seeing anything.

Oops!    CMC's turn now.  16" with all the trimmings.    Probably thinks it sees a TS.

[bluewave]

Models in full warm up push back mode. They are now showing another cool down around the 27th. Instead of the warm up they had been showing in earlier runs.

New run

Old run

[golfer07840]

That is downright depressing. *

*Says the golfer whose season starts April 1st

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, Dave Baker said:

That is downright depressing. *

*Says the golfer whose season starts April 1st

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

We just have to enjoy the warmer spring days when we get them like last Friday.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Later this week, a storm will likely bring rain to parts of the Northeast, especially coastal areas. Accumulating snow is possible in higher elevations across Upstate New York, Quebec, and New England. The greatest risk of a moderate or significant snowfall (4” or more) exists in the higher elevations of Quebec north and west of Quebec City and in an area running across western Maine and northern New Hampshire.

Next week could favor a better chance at a measurable snowfall. Some of the guidance is suggesting that the March 26-28 period could offer a window of opportunity for a measurable snowfall in at least parts of the Philadelphia to Boston corridor. But at this time scale, uncertainty remains high.

The 0z EPS ensemble mean figures are:

Boston: 3.0” (8/51 members at 4” or more; 4 of those members show 10” or more)
New York City: 2.0” (5/51 members at 4” or more)
Philadelphia: 1.0” (4/51 members at 4” or more)

The 0z GGEM also highlighted the possibility of measurable snow.

Some historical data is provided below for perspective as it relates to 4” or greater snowfalls for Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia in the March 25-April 30 timeframe:

Even in Boston, a 4” or greater snowfall would be an infrequent event this late in the season.