dWave Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Wow started as all hail for a min then heavy rain. No significant wind, lots of lightning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Getting some lightning now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Not bad, had a big burst of wind, some very heavy downpours and a few strikes. Probably just a couple notches below severe criteria. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 1.33” and counting. Drove to Yorktown. Low level fog on roads was remarkable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Usually I get closer to the skyline but I rushed out of work without a lot of time so I had to shoot from Staten Island. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Had some pretty decent thunder/lighting and gusty winds as the storms moved thru earlier. Picked up 0.22" of rain for the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or 1deg. BN. Month to date is -2.6[37.3]. Should be -2.1[38.9] by the 24th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Has the wet pattern finally ended? Only 0.03” yesterday here, with no rain the preceding 4-5 days, and no rain in the forecast. Will be getting a much needed car wash today, it’s been like a year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Cfa said: Has the wet pattern finally ended? Only 0.03” yesterday here, with no rain the preceding 4-5 days, and no rain in the forecast. Will be getting a much needed car wash today, it’s been like a year. granted they are op runs beyond 5 days, but they are dry through day 10 as is are the weeklies from the Euro-dry/warm for the northeast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 First time that NYC reached 75 degrees in March with 10.0” or more of monthly snowfall. year....snow...max temp 2019...10.4...75 2018...11.6...62 2015...18.6...62 1996...13.2...63 1993...11.9...68 1984...11.9...58 1967...17.4...72 1960...18.5...70 1958...15.9...57 1956...21.1...63 1941...19.2...58 1917...11.7...62 1916...25.5...65 1914...21.5...73 1907...13.3...74 1906...11.5...55 1896...30.5...60 1892...12.0...56 1890...17.1...71 1888...22.2...57 1883...10.0...60 1875...13.8..60 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 2 hours ago, Cfa said: Has the wet pattern finally ended? Only 0.03” yesterday here, with no rain the preceding 4-5 days, and no rain in the forecast. Will be getting a much needed car wash today, it’s been like a year. 2.4" here and no the wet pattern has not ended. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 31 minutes ago, gravitylover said: 2.4" here and no the wet pattern has not ended. all that from last night? WOW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: 2.4" here and no the wet pattern has not ended. 0.00” here, wet pattern over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 3 hours ago, gravitylover said: 2.4" here and no the wet pattern has not ended. We'll see how this month winds up, but since last Feb have only had one month (June) with below avg precip here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 8 hours ago, Brian5671 said: all that from last night? WOW Yep The wind was pretty serious too and I lost a few of the branches that were damaged, between those and the two trees down that I haven't cut up yet because I'm not supposed to strain myself too much since the December heart attack the backyard looks like a war zone. I had to pull my car out of the driveway yesterday afternoon and I put it on the parking area at the front of my lawn, between the last of the snowbank melting out during the day, the ground thawing and the rain it sunk 4" in and I had to pull it out with my Durango this morning. What a pita that was. Gonna have to go get a new chainsaw and get busy on the trees this week as it dries out then fix the 4 new holes out front. Not going to need the gym this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 so far NYC has 65 days with a minimum temperature 32 or lower...last year had 69 with two in April...this week the predicted lows in the city are near freezing Sunday to Wed. mornings...if that happens this year will tie last year...the most in recent years is 93 in 2014-15...2015-16 and 2016-17 had less than 50 such days...37 is the lowest total on record set in 2011-12...before the 1950's there were many years with at least 100 days with a minimum 32 or lower... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Following last night's line of thunderstorms, some of which brought small hail to parts of the region, a cooler air mass has returned to the region. Temperatures struggled to reach 50° whereas yesterday the mercury soared into the 70s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.50°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.69°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March. The SOI was -9.53 today. It has been negative for 38 out of the last 39 days. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.677. The AO has now been positive for 37 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March. On March 15, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.707 (RMM). The amplitude was lower than the March 14-adjusted figure of 0.805. The MJO will likely remain in Phase 3 at a low amplitude for at least several days. Tomorrow night into Monday morning, a fast-moving weak system could bring some light rain or snow across parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region. However, most of the precipitation looks to pass south of New York City. Cities most likely to pick up a small accumulation (probably a coating to an inch) include Harrisburg, Philadelphia, and Trenton. By the middle of the week, temperatures could again be rising to levels above seasonal norms. There is some chance of another brief push of cooler air late in the week. Overall, the implied probability of a colder than normal March has rebounded to 66% based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance. In short, even as there have been fluctuations in the implied probabilities on account of the recent warmth, the overall idea of a colder than normal March as a whole for the New York City remains on track. April looks to be warmer than normal as per multiple pieces of guidance. Finally, through March 16 at 5 pm, Atlanta has received 0.0" snow. Since snowfall recordkeeping began, Atlanta has never had a winter when it received less than a trace of snow. Atlanta's snowfall records go back to 1928-29. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/13/2019 at 7:24 PM, purduewx80 said: nice gif explainer of the two shortwaves in play. Amazing that the two events occurred on the same day. I saw a graphic that had it down to the same exact time (2 PM March 13) that the two storms were bombing out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/14/2019 at 8:28 AM, bluewave said: Yeah, we had one of the lowest winter snowfall totals on record around the area. But the above normal snowfall in November and March boosted the seasonal totals out of the single digits. We experienced the most unfavorable Pacific pattern since the 2011-2012 winter. The fire hose Pacific jet overpowered the winter pattern. It carved out a trough in the West while pumping the SE Ridge/WAR. We even had some Greenland blocking dropping the AO to negative from time to time. But the Pacific pattern was just to dominant for it to matter much. You mentioned that something in the Atlantic was also causing us to have more of a S/SE flow during the summer, thus preventing extreme heat. Are the two connected? Is it possible we're going to go into a series of summers and winters like this, where we have a strong onshore flow and storms track to our west? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 On 3/14/2019 at 12:50 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Still piles in the city. Here on the south shore e never had a snow pack because we never really had any snow. Less then 10” for the season total here. Biggest event was 3.5” in November. SE Nassau and Monmouth were the big losers this winter. I give it a D at home and a C at work on 120th and Broadway Just under 22" for the season in Smithtown. Plus two separate near 0 outbreaks and a few other points of interest. I can't in good conscience lump this winter anywhere near as bad as 2011-12, 2001-2, or 1997-98. It's not even close to being in the same league as those 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is -2.1[37.9]. Should be -1.1[40.0] by the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 7 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: Just under 22" for the season in Smithtown. Plus two separate near 0 outbreaks and a few other points of interest. I can't in good conscience lump this winter anywhere near as bad as 2011-12, 2001-2, or 1997-98. It's not even close to being in the same league as those 3. The March events bring it up to a D rather than an outright F. In college you still get credit for a D course grade, so I guess it has that going for it. Put it in there with 2006-07 and 2007-08 both of which had some interesting, if not major storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 7 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: Just under 22" for the season in Smithtown. Plus two separate near 0 outbreaks and a few other points of interest. I can't in good conscience lump this winter anywhere near as bad as 2011-12, 2001-2, or 1997-98. It's not even close to being in the same league as those 3. The South Shore tied 11-12 with only 4.4 inches of snow for the winter DJF period. But the snowier November and March than winter brought the seasonal total up to 12.8. I am very sorry about your loss. ISP DJF snowfall 1 1997-1998 1.0 0 2 2001-2002 3.7 61 3 1989-1990 4.2 0 4 2018-2019 4.4 0 - 2011-2012 4.4 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The South Shore tied 11-12 with only 4.4 inches for the winter DJF period. But the snowier November and March than winter brought the seasonal total up to 12.8. I am very sorry about your loss. ISP DJF 1 1997-1998 1.0 0 2 2001-2002 3.7 61 3 1989-1990 4.2 0 4 2018-2019 4.4 0 - 2011-2012 4.4 0 Was JFK around the same 4.4 figure, Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Was JFK around the same 4.4 figure, Chris? Yeah, winter was close with only 3.8. But the snowier November and March than winter brought the seasonal totoal to 14.7. JFK DJF snowfall 1 1997-1998 0.7 0 - 1958-1959 0.7 62 3 1972-1973 1.6 0 4 2011-2012 2.2 0 5 1989-1990 3.5 0 6 1991-1992 3.6 0 7 2018-2019 3.8 1 8 2001-2002 4.4 0 9 2006-2007 5.0 0 10 1988-1989 5.5 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, winter was close with only 3.8. But the snowier November and March than winter brought the seasonal totoal to 14.7. JFK DJF snowfall 1 1997-1998 0.7 0 - 1958-1959 0.7 62 3 1972-1973 1.6 0 4 2011-2012 2.2 0 5 1989-1990 3.5 0 6 1991-1992 3.6 0 7 2018-2019 3.8 1 8 2001-2002 4.4 0 9 2006-2007 5.0 0 10 1988-1989 5.5 0 Yep, it sounds like it fits right in there with 2006-07, 2007-08 and to go further back in time, 1989-90. January and February were much warmer that season, but December was historically cold, so they sort of balance each other out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yep, it sounds like it fits right in there with 2006-07, 2007-08 and to go further back in time, 1989-90. January and February were much warmer that season, but December was historically cold, so they sort of balance each other out. We have been on quite a record snowfall run following the 96-97 to 01-02 snow drought. This was only our 4th below normal snowfall season since then. 06-07....07-08....11-12....18-19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 If the wet pattern continues into the summer, we're likely going to experience a repeat of last summer which included a record number of days with the dew point over 70 with highs in the 80s. If I wanted minimal snowfall in the winter with hot, humid summers, I would have moved to the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 hour ago, TriPol said: If the wet pattern continues into the summer, we're likely going to experience a repeat of last summer which included a record number of days with the dew point over 70 with highs in the 80s. If I wanted minimal snowfall in the winter with hot, humid summers, I would have moved to the South. I am not sure that the current SST pattern would support a WAR/STR as extreme as last summer. Notice the big cold pool east of the Canadian Maritimes this March. There were record warm SST’s off New England last March. 2018 also featured the February precursor pattern with the first 80 and record breaking 500 mb height. So far we have seen nothing as extreme this year. The historic 43 days at JFK with a 75 degree or higher dew point is a tough act to follow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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