Drz1111 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Guys there is record snowpack over Quebec/Labrador and the maritimes and chilly SSTs. Of course you’re going to get a big back door season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 hours ago, tek1972 said: Now that we are entering March, anything that falls next week won't be around long with that stronger March sun. Ready for Spring. Except in my completely shaded driveway that has been a sheet/block of ice for weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Icon looks like a big snowstorm coming maybe a bit warm but it does look good for Sunday night into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Incredible how far apart the NAM and GFS are for the Friday storm given it’s only 54 hrs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 58 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Incredible how far apart the NAM and GFS are for the Friday storm given it’s only 54 hrs away. If I were to guess I’d think the Friday deal is a dud and than the boundary moves up north and we get a light event whether it’d be a rain/snow mix or white rain. But the Monday’s event could be big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 GFS is relatively big hit along with the ICON, CMC better than last night but still a bit warm....could it be real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: GFS is relatively big hit along with the ICON, CMC better than last night but still a bit warm....could it be real? If the 12Z Euro basically agrees with the others then this is real for now - but as Don mentioned in his daily review last night in the Feb. thread "Put another way, even as a moderate or significant snowfall remains possible, confidence in such an outcome could be fairly low until the possible event is 48-96 hours away" - right now we are just entering that window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 FV3 is also quite warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: FV3 is also quite warm wasn't the FV3 delayed because overall it was usually too cold or am I mistaken ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 42 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Incredible how far apart the NAM and GFS are for the Friday storm given it’s only 54 hrs away. The RGEM and GGEM is somewhat close to the NAM on Friday now. Notice how the NAM has consistently shown that event and not lost it even once since 84 hours. When the NAM does that and differs from all other models it’s onto something more often than not. Seeing the RGEM join it today could mean the Friday event is legit but it’s not likely to be anything big regardless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 GGEM still showing mostly rain for NYC for late sunday, and last night's EURO was too warm. If GFS is just correcting towards the other guidance, we could be heading for a storm in which you have to be northwest of NYC unfortunately. Quite a change from yesterday when the storm looked cold and suppression was a concern. But it's still early and these models have been having a hard time getting a handle on things lately. So who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: GGEM still showing mostly rain for NYC for late sunday, and last night's EURO was too warm. If GFS is just correcting towards the other guidance, we could be heading for a storm in which you have to be northwest of NYC unfortunately. Quite a change from yesterday when the storm looked cold and suppression was a concern. But it's still early and these models have been having a hard time getting a handle on things lately. So who knows. If the Saturday or Sunday morning event occurs it’s rain. The two chances for snow are the Friday event and the bigger one Monday. The middle one is rain for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: wasn't the FV3 delayed because overall it was usually too cold or am I mistaken ? I believe that's one of its problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If the Saturday or Sunday morning event occurs it’s rain. The two chances for snow are the Friday event and the bigger one Monday. The middle one is rain for the coast The models are showing the bigger monday storm as starting late sunday now. That's what I was talking about with the GGEM showing mostly rain. The monday bigger storm seems to be a sunday night event now and is trending warmer. In fact the colder GFS is showing the snowstorm starting sunday afternoon, but again GGEM is much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just posted this in the Feb thread - guess it makes sense here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 The UKMET definitely came north Friday though it mostly still misses. It shows the Saturday night even just offshore too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET definitely came north Friday though it mostly still misses. It shows the Saturday night even just offshore too What does the UKMET show for Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: What does the UKMET show for Monday? Snow event it’s got a nor’easter with a benchmark track 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Fv-3 screws anyone south of Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2019022712/usa-east/sea-level-pressure/20190304-0600z.html Looks like a good track, but these maps are tough to read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said: Snow event it’s got a nor’easter with a benchmark track I think the strength and location of the HP to the north and any blocking available will have a lot to do with the final outcome..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, mikem81 said: https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2019022712/usa-east/sea-level-pressure/20190304-0600z.html Looks like a good track, but these maps are tough to read That’s probably rain to snow but hard to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Don't see how this wouldn't either hug the coast or cut inland. I suppose what we've got going for us is that it's a weak, progressive system. But I think it's gonna screw the coastal plain just like all storm tracks this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Don't see how this wouldn't either hug the coast or cut inland. I suppose what we've got going for us is that it's a weak, progressive system. But I think it's gonna screw the coastal plain just like all storm tracks this season. Sure looks to be headed that way again based on seasonal and model trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Euro is no good. Amped and rain for most. (Monday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Euro is no good. Amped and rain for most. That’s the most likely scenario IMO. There is nothing to keep it from cutting. It has cutter/inland runner written all over it. The TPV gets stretched out, no -NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, snowman19 said: That’s the most likely scenario IMO. There is nothing to keep it from cutting. It has cutter/inland runner written all over it. The TPV gets stretched out, no -NAO Nothing the most likely outcome this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That’s the most likely scenario IMO. There is nothing to keep it from cutting. It has cutter/inland runner written all over it. The TPV gets stretched out, no -NAO Then again we were supposed to get a huge cutter this week and that's not happening. So I'm gonna wait and see a couple more cycles. Also watching the Saturday system, I wouldn't be surprised if that drops a few inches on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nothing the most likely outcome this far out. er um, seasonal pattern???? The odds of a cutter are quite high if you factor that in, plus a +AO and +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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