March, 2019

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Well, I'm not a big fan of scholastic sports, but this is the culture we live in, and the kids already have a ton of HW to do as it is, so I guess you would be right in that parents wouldn't want some of the sports to be later, though there's no reason most can't be done under lights ( except x country maybe )

There are a few, boys tennis, golf and baseball. Very few schools, at least around here, have lit facilities for these and there are lots of kids depending on those scholarships to go to college.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I see that we've had measurable April snows even in mild seasonal patterns (like April 1990, when we received an inch of snow after it had already been in the mid and upper 80s in the middle of March!)  It's the significant snows (4" or more) that are rare unless we've had a cold winter.

 

Also, New York City has never had consecutive years during which April saw a 4" or greater snowstorm since regular recordkeeping began in 1869.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 46degs., or 4degs. AN.

Month to date is -5.5[34.0].     Should be -1.7[38.8] by the 21st.

PS to the post below.   Winter ended Dec. 1.

[donsutherland1]

Even as the weather is poised to be fairly quiet in the East over the next several days with the thermometer reaching springlike readings in the 60s on Friday and possibly 70° or better in the Washington, DC area, the extreme storm moving across the Plains States will present a meteorological marvel. Its central pressure will probably bottom out close to 970 +/- a few mb late today. It will produce a severe blizzard in parts of the Plains, centered around southeast Wyoming, northwest Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota where 12"-18" of wind-whipped snow will fall creating whiteout conditions and huge drifts.

[gravitylover]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

we used to stay until 6 pm or so for sports and other extracurricular activities.  sometimes go home and come back and stay until 8

Only works if there are lights and outside of LI and Westchester very few school fields are lit, football maybe but baseball fields and tennis courts rarely are and golf courses certainly aren't. While it may not be a thing for a lot of people it is for more than you think and for those people it's critical that those sports can be maintained.

[Sn0waddict]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

You picked the right week to go to Florida. The EPS has a low near Florida next week.

I’m going to Florida next Friday. Latest runs have me a little worried, but at least it’s still over a week away. 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Also, New York City has never had consecutive years during which April saw a 4" or greater snowstorm since regular recordkeeping began in 1869.

No, only the small 1-2 inch or less types.  It could have happened in 1995-96 and 1996-97 but NYC just missed out on the 4" that JFK got in April 1996, and we all narrowly busted in April 1997, with 6-8" of snow both south and north of us.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Figures that the biggest +PNA spike in months would wait for the end of March when people are rooting for spring. 

 

There must be a reason this always seems to happen in Spring when it doesn't happen in Winter lol.

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Only works if there are lights and outside of LI and Westchester very few school fields are lit, football maybe but baseball fields and tennis courts rarely are and golf courses certainly aren't. While it may not be a thing for a lot of people it is for more than you think and for those people it's critical that those sports can be maintained.

Our baseball fields and tennis courts were lit, we didn't have a golf course, outside of the village country clubs though.  I dont see a lot of people playing tennis or baseball or golf in the winter though when this would be an issue.  Most of the time it's still light around 6 pm outside of winter, especially if we had year round DST.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even as the weather is poised to be fairly quiet in the East over the next several days with the thermometer reaching springlike readings in the 60s on Friday and possibly 70° or better in the Washington, DC area, the extreme storm moving across the Plains States will present a meteorological marvel. Its central pressure will probably bottom out close to 970 +/- a few mb late today. It will produce a severe blizzard in parts of the Plains, centered around southeast Wyoming, northwest Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota where 12"-18" of wind-whipped snow will fall creating whiteout conditions and huge drifts.

100 mph winds and a big line of severe weather too!  Reminds me of the March 1993 Superstorm displaced a couple of thousand miles to the west- is this a triple phaser too?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

While the day 6-10 means all agree on a very amplified +PNA pattern, the storm details keep changing from run to run. Latest 0z guidance tries to close or cutoff an upper low somewhere near or just off the East Coast. Remember, some of the highest tides of the spring are with the full moon on March 21st. So any strong onshore flow for portions of the East Coast would lead to coastal flooding and beach erosion. 

and perhaps the last chance for the coast at a decent snowfall?

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

100 mph winds and a big line of severe weather too!  Reminds me of the March 1993 Superstorm displaced a couple of thousand miles to the west- is this a triple phaser too?

It looked like a double-phaser the last few runs I saw.

[A Moonlit Sky]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Only works if there are lights and outside of LI and Westchester very few school fields are lit, football maybe but baseball fields and tennis courts rarely are and golf courses certainly aren't. While it may not be a thing for a lot of people it is for more than you think and for those people it's critical that those sports can be maintained.

We have lit fields from what I've seen and we're not far from you. Honestly, if we could just choose ONE time and stick with it year-round, I'd be good. I hate the switches more than anything. Keep DST or keep ST--whichever works for most people.

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Our baseball fields and tennis courts were lit, we didn't have a golf course, outside of the village country clubs though.  I dont see a lot of people playing tennis or baseball or golf in the winter though when this would be an issue.  Most of the time it's still light around 6 pm outside of winter, especially if we had year round DST.

When I was in HS only the football field had lights and up here pretty much none of the fields other than football do. I know that minenfeld said they have them there but it's not common here on the NY side. HS golf practice starts in February usually in the southern conferences. I think girls field hockey is also a spring sport and that would likely be affected and track might be too. I don't need to argue about this it was just my thought. 

[purduewx80]

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

However, the probability of a shorter cool period has increased in recent days. A growing body of the latest guidance now suggests that the cooler period will likely be short-lived. Both the EPS and CFSv2 weekly data have moved into agreement that warmer than normal conditions could return near March 24. The 12z EPS is particularly aggressive with the warmth near the end of the month.

Finally, patterns similar to the current one in March have often been followed by a warmer than normal April. Both the EPS and CFSv2 favor a warmer than normal April in the region.　

Definitely a lot of evidence that by ~4/1 we should be into a consistently much warmer pattern. Looking forward to it.

[purduewx80]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even as the weather is poised to be fairly quiet in the East over the next several days with the thermometer reaching springlike readings in the 60s on Friday and possibly 70° or better in the Washington, DC area, the extreme storm moving across the Plains States will present a meteorological marvel. Its central pressure will probably bottom out close to 970 +/- a few mb late today. It will produce a severe blizzard in parts of the Plains, centered around southeast Wyoming, northwest Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota where 12"-18" of wind-whipped snow will fall creating whiteout conditions and huge drifts.

Just an incredible storm to watch in real-time. Winds have rapidly increased at DEN over the past hour, with frequent gusts over 50MPH occurring now. Their transition to +SN is under way as convection moving in from the east allows for some dynamic cooling. Could be quite the snowfall gradient today due to the mesoscale nature of the precip there.

Lowest sea-level pressure I can find is 971.7mb at La Junta, CO:

60-65 mph winds showing up a few hundred feet above the airport/city on RadarScope:

College of DuPage WV - their 96-200 image loops show the double phase, bombogenesis and severe squall line nicely.

[CoastalWx]

Drool.

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Just an incredible storm to watch in real-time. Winds have rapidly increased at DEN over the past hour, with frequent gusts over 50MPH occurring now. Their transition to +SN is under way as convection moving in from the east allows for some dynamic cooling. Could be quite the snowfall gradient today due to the mesoscale nature of the precip there.

Lowest sea-level pressure I can find is 971.7mb at La Junta, CO:

60-65 mph winds showing up a few hundred feet above the airport/city on RadarScope:

 

College of DuPage WV - their 96-200 image loops show the double phase, bombogenesis and severe squall line nicely.

 

It’s a truly amazing storm. The images from the radar are remarkable.

[ILoveWinter]

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s a truly amazing storm. The images from the radar are remarkable.

Interesting path too considering the rain expected even in northeast MN. It’s a cutter for those areas that benefit from our cutters.

[A Moonlit Sky]

Look at the power though. I don't think it'll ever cease to amaze me the power of nature.

[bluewave]

12z guidance shifting warmer for Friday ahead of the late day potential convection. Euro and GFS MOS now have upper 60’s. It wouldn’t take much for the warmer parts of NJ to reach 70 with enough breaks of sun. 

KEWR   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    3/13/2019  1200 UTC
DT /MAR  13/MAR  14                /MAR  15                /MAR  16
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X                    36          59          50          68    45

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

Just an incredible storm to watch in real-time. Winds have rapidly increased at DEN over the past hour, with frequent gusts over 50MPH occurring now. Their transition to +SN is under way as convection moving in from the east allows for some dynamic cooling. Could be quite the snowfall gradient today due to the mesoscale nature of the precip there.

Lowest sea-level pressure I can find is 971.7mb at La Junta, CO:

60-65 mph winds showing up a few hundred feet above the airport/city on RadarScope:

College of DuPage WV - their 96-200 image loops show the double phase, bombogenesis and severe squall line nicely.

I've been researching past storms of this type (for our and other regions) and some of these are like nothing I've heard of before.  How could a 955 mb cyclone pass over Long Island and drop 24" inches of snow on Long Island?  The cold must've wrapped right into the storm!

Why dont we get storms like this any more?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_1886_blizzard

The lowest pressure measured on land was 28.69 inches of mercury (972 hPa) at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Providence, Rhode Island, and Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts; the cyclone was considered one of the most extreme to pass through New England at the time. The storm's center then moved inland across Long Island by 11 a.m. on January 9, then across Rhode Island by 1 p.m. and Boston by 2 p.m. before turning northward through Maine around 10 p.m. Temperature readings quickly fell 10-15F (6-9 C) after the passage of the cyclone. High-level cirrus clouds led the center of circulation by 24 hours, with snow occurring 12 hours after the cirrus invasion.^[3] While weakening, the storm moved through southeast Quebec on January 10.^[5] The low pressure area moved at an average forward motion of 34 miles per hour (55 km/h) through the United States.^[4]

Up to 24 inches (61 cm) of snow fell in parts of Long Island,^[14] with 11.9 inches (30 cm) falling in Central Park.^[15] As the system moved through New England, snowfall appeared concentrated along the cyclone's path, with areas of over 15 inches (38 cm) measured across southeast Connecticut and northeast Massachusetts. A separate maximum of over 10 inches (25 cm) was noted across central Vermont. A 7:1 snow to liquid ratio (or 7 cm/in of snow for every 1 cm/in of rain) was determined from an average of the available snowfall and liquid equivalent measurements made at the time.^[3] Montreal experienced blizzard conditions with heavy snow and wind on January 9.^[10]

[LibertyBell]

Some of the others I looked into:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_1886_blizzard

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_1913_Atlantic_coast_storm

The storm formed suddenly on the night of January 2–3 and developed into a severe storm with destructive gales and record low pressures on January 3 over eastern Pennsylvania and Virginia.^[4][5] The high winds and low pressures continued over New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts.^[6] It passed over Maine by the next morning.^[4]

Weather Bureau forecaster Scarr reported in The New York Times that the storm produced a record low pressure of 968.9 mb (28.61 inHg) and wind speeds of 90 mph (140 km/h) in New York City. He also said "the storm had been caused by several small depressions ... combining and forming a cyclone."^[1]

Philadelphia recorded its lowest pressure, 970.9 mb (28.67 inHg), for the month of January.^[7]

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1978}

 

ate on Tuesday, January 24, 1978 surface maps revealed a moisture-laden Gulf Low developing over the Southern United States, while a separate and unrelated low-pressure system was present over the Upper Midwest. In about 24 hours, the merger of the subtropical jet stream (containing a wind max of 130 knots) and the polar jet stream (containing a wind max of 110 knots) would lead the low-pressure system to undergo explosive cyclogenesis as it moved rapidly northward during the evening of January 25 (record low pressures were logged across parts of the South and Mid-Atlantic).^[3] To be classified as undergoing explosive cyclogenesis, a storm's central pressure must drop at least 24 millibars, or an average of 1 millibar per hour, over a 24-hour period; the Great Blizzard dropped by a remarkable 40 millibars in that span of time.^[3]

The storm initially began as rain, but quickly changed over to heavy snow during the pre-dawn hours (as arctic air deepened ahead of the storm) leading to frequent whiteouts and zero visibility during the day on Thursday, January 26. As the storm headed for Ohio, this resulted in a "storm of unprecedented magnitude," according to the National Weather Service, which categorized it as a rare severe blizzard, the most severe grade of winter storm. Particularly hard hit were the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, and southeastern Wisconsin where up to 40 inches (102 cm) of snow fell. Winds gusting up to 100 miles per hour (161 km/h) caused drifts that nearly buried some homes. Wind chillvalues reached −60 °F (−51 °C) across much of Ohio where 51 of the total 70 storm-related deaths occurred.^[4]

Canada did not escape the wrath of the storm as blizzard conditions were common across southwestern Ontario. London, Ontario was paralyzed by 41 centimetres (16 in) of snow and winds gusting to 128 kilometres per hour (80 mph).

Barometric pressure[edit]

On Thursday, January 26, the third lowest atmospheric pressure recorded in the mainland United States, apart from a tropical system, occurred as the storm passed over Mount Clemens, Michigan. There the barometer fell to 956.0 mb (28.23 inHg).^[2] Nearby Detroit, Michigan air pressure fell to 28.34 inches of mercury (960 mbar). At around that same time, the absolute low pressure for this storm was measured at Sarnia, in Southwestern Ontario, Canada, where the barometer bottomed out at 955.5 mb (28.22 inHg).^[2] Toronto pressure fell to 28.40 inches, breaking its old record by 0.17.

The 956.0 mb (28.23 inHg) barometric pressure measurement recorded in Mount Clemens, Michigan was the third lowest non-tropical atmospheric pressure recorded in the mainland United States^[5] and the lowest in the Central United States.^[2] The lowest confirmed pressure for a non-tropical system in the continental United States had been set by a January 1913 Atlantic coast storm.^[2] The lowest central pressure for the 1978 blizzard was 955.5 mb (28.22 inHg) measured in Sarnia, Ontario, Canada.^[2] On rare occasions, extra-tropical cyclones with central pressures below 28 inches of mercury or about 95 kPa (950 mb) have been recorded in Wiscasset, Maine (27.9") and Newfoundland (27.76").^[6] In addition, the blizzard is the highest-ranking winter storm on the Regional Snowfall Index, with a maximum value of 39.07, and one of only twenty-six storms to rank as a Category 5 on the scale.^[7]

 

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Appalachian_Storm_of_1950}

The Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 was a large extratropical cyclone which moved through the Eastern United States, causing significant winds, heavy rains east of the Appalachians, and blizzard conditions along the western slopes of the mountain chain. Hurricane-force winds, peaking at 110 miles per hour (180 km/h) in Concord, New Hampshire and 160 miles per hour (260 km/h) in the New England highlands, disrupted power to 1,000,000 customers during the event. In all, the storm impacted 22 states, killing 353, injuring over 160, and creating US$66.7 million in damage (1950 dollars).^[2] At the time, U.S. insurance companies paid more money out to their policy holders for damage resulting from this cyclone than for any other previous storm or hurricane. The cyclone is also one of only twenty-six storms to rank as a Category 5 on the Regional Snowfall Index.^[3]

[LibertyBell]

And of course this one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century

The 1993 Storm of the Century (also known as the 93 Superstorm, The No Name Storm, or the Great Blizzard of 1993) was a large cyclonic storm that formed over the Gulf of Mexico on March 12, 1993. The storm was unique and notable for its intensity, massive size, and wide-reaching effects; at its height, the storm stretched from Canada to Honduras.^[1] The cyclone moved through the Gulf of Mexico and then through the eastern United States before moving on to Canada. The storm eventually dissipated in the North Atlantic Ocean on March 15, 1993.

Heavy snow was first reported in highland areas as far south as Alabama and northern Georgia, with Union County, Georgia reporting up to 35 inches (89 cm) of snow in the north Georgia mountains. Birmingham, Alabama, reported a rare 13 inches (33 cm) of snow.^[2][3] The Florida Panhandle reported up to 4 inches (10 cm) of snow,^[4] with hurricane-force wind gusts and record low barometric pressures. Between Louisianaand Cuba, the hurricane-force winds produced high storm surges across the big bend of Florida which, in combination with scattered tornadoes, killed dozens of people.

Record cold temperatures were seen across portions of the south and east of the US in the wake of this storm. In the United States, the storm was responsible for the loss of electric power to more than 10 million households. An estimated 40 percent of the country's population experienced the effects of the storm^[5] with a total of 208 fatalities.^[1]

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard}

 

^{full listing}

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s a truly amazing storm. The images from the radar are remarkable.

I wonder how much stronger it might have been had it become a triple phaser!  I posted some historic storms of very low barometric pressure above, the effects were wide ranging.  I think we need an official categorization system for these storms, complete with real names, like they do in Europe.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, gravitylover said:

When I was in HS only the football field had lights and up here pretty much none of the fields other than football do. I know that minenfeld said they have them there but it's not common here on the NY side. HS golf practice starts in February usually in the southern conferences. I think girls field hockey is also a spring sport and that would likely be affected and track might be too. I don't need to argue about this it was just my thought. 

You're probably right, but either way, we should just stick with one time, whatever it is.  There are significant health impacts by switching back and forth.

[495weatherguy]

5 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

Definitely a lot of evidence that by ~4/1 we should be into a consistently much warmer pattern. Looking forward to it.

When you say much warmer--relative to normal?  would 70's be out of the question?

[bluewave]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSDodgeCity/status/1105936366020558848

LOWEST ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE IN OVER 100 YEARS AT DODGE CITY... At 355 PM CDT, The Dodge City Airport had an atmopsheric pressure of 974.7mb (28.78 inches of mercury), exceeding the old 100+ year record of 974.9mb set in February 1960. #kswx

[purduewx80]

10 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

When you say much warmer--relative to normal?  would 70's be out of the question?

The only 70-degree readings I see in the next 2 weeks would be on Friday, and that will not be attainable without a few hours of sun. Beyond that, we will have to wait for some kind of major pattern change.  Today's 12Z EPS is certainly not as warm as the past few days for the last week of March. In fact, a number of its members are showing a -NAO develop.

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

The only 70-degree readings I see in the next 2 weeks would be on Friday, and that will not be attainable without a few hours of sun. Beyond that, we will have to wait for some kind of major pattern change.  Today's 12Z EPS is certainly not as warm as the past few days for the last week of March. In fact, a number of its members are showing a -NAO develop.

Interesting that this didn't happen in the winter but shows up now.  Must be a reason it didn't happen then but is happening now.  I've seen that often.